SOLANA FINDS PESSIMISM, BUT ALSO DETERMINATION TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 003354

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PREL EUN IS XF SY
SUBJECT: SOLANA FINDS PESSIMISM, BUT ALSO DETERMINATION TO
AVOID FAILURE AT ANNAPOLIS, DURING MIDDLE EAST TOUR


Classified By: Acting Deputy PolCouns Vincent Carver for reasons 1.5 (b
and d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to Council Secretariat Director
for the Middle East, Christian Jouret, EU HR Javier Solana
detected a great deal of pessimism regarding the Annapolis
meeting, but also a determination to avoid failure, during
his November 11-14 talks in Egypt, Israel, and the
Palestinian Territories. Solana will present an EU Action
Strategy on Israel-Palestine to EU FMs November 19; Jouret
said it focuses on EU involvement and assistance to the
region; its chief goal is to maintain member state assistance
for the Palestinians and for peace negotiations. END SUMMARY



2. (C) Jouret (who accompanied Solana) told us November 16
that Solana met with Mubarak and the Arab League SYG, as well
as President Abbas, in Cairo November 11-12; with PM Olmert,
FM Livni, and opposition leaders in Israel November 13, and
with PM Fayyad and other PA officials in the Palestinian
Territories November 14. According to Jouret, interlocutors
from all sides expressed pessimism that the Annapolis meeting
will produce anything concrete. All, however, quickly added
that they would do everything possible to avoid failure at
the meeting. In the EU's view, "getting something -- the
launching of a process, and agreeing on what that actually
is" should be the objective of Annapolis. Jouret said both
the Israelis and the Palestinians see two key objectives for
the initial stages of a process launched at Annapolis:
implementation of the first phase of the Road Map, including
a freeze on Israeli settlement activity, and Palestinian
"enhancement" of security, including dismantling terrorist
networks and confiscating weapons.


3. (C) Jouret added that both sides will look to the United
States to define the parameters of the process; the
Palestinians particularly see Washington as being in a
position to judge whether the two sides are meeting their
commitments. Jouret underscored that this is not how the EU
views the process. Reviewing fulfillment of the parties'
obligations, he stressed, is a responsibility of the Quartet.
He noted that Solana and various member states want
Annapolis to energize a "genuine" negotiating process that
will quickly tackle the "tough issues," including refugees,
borders, Jerusalem, and water.


4. (C) According to Jouret, both sides, particularly the
Palestinians (with FM Livni appearing more ambivalent --
reportedly adopting a "why not?" approach),see that Syria
must be part of the process. Jouret added that the Arab
League and Egypt supported Syrian participation in
negotiations, reasoning that the more Damascus is involved,
the more it will be detached from Iran. The Arab League SYG
and Mubarak said that if Syria does not go to Annapolis, it
might be possible to include Damascus at a subsequent meeting
-- perhaps one which might be hosted by Moscow.


5. (C) Jouret provided few details regarding the Action
Strategy (also referred to by some EU officials as an "Action
Plan") that Solana presented to PSC ambassadors November 16
and will present to EU FMs at the November 19 GAERC. Jouret
characterized the document as geared toward "internal
motivation" -- aimed at convincing member states to continue
their efforts, particularly regarding aid to the Palestinian
Territories and the construction of an eventual Palestinian
State. It also supports advancing the Arab League's peace
initiative. Jouret added that the Action Strategy is a means
to demonstrate publicly that the EU has done a great deal for
the region and will continue to support peace negotiations.



6. (C) Solana did not discuss Hamas with his interlocutors,
Jouret said in response to our question. Jouret stressed
that the EU's policy on Hamas is clear and Brussels will
maintain it. That said, a peace agreement will have to be
implemented in Gaza as well.


7. (C) Solana and Livni also discussed Iran, but Jouret
claimed not to have details of that discussion. He noted
that Solana will meet again with "one of the Iranian nuclear
negotiators, but we are not sure with which one" by the end
of November. The location of the meeting is not yet
determined.


8. (C) Finally, Jouret observed that Olmert and Abbas
"trust" each other; both viewing the other as someone with
whom to do business.

GRAY
.