BELGIAN GOVERNMENT FORMATION - ADRIFT, BUT STILL

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003351

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN GOVERNMENT FORMATION - ADRIFT, BUT STILL
AFLOAT

REF: Brussels 3308


1. (SBU) Summary: Yves Leterme's attempt to form a new
Belgian government is still alive, but there seems little
chance that it will succeed anytime soon. A recent
series of inter-communal flaps, all centered around the
bilingual communes surrounding Brussels, have brought a
pause to Leterme's efforts. Some leaders, including FM
De Gucht and Finance Minister Reynders are working to
recreate an atmosphere in which talks can resume. In the
meantime, it appears that some leaders are at least
talking informally. End summary


2. (U) Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V) leader Yves
Leterme?s attempt to form Belgium's next federal
government is still alive, but it remains as far from
success today as it was when he began the effort, 160
days (and counting) ago. Leterme and his "orange
(Christian Democrat) - blue (Liberal)" partners from the
Flemish and francophone parts of the country have reached
broad agreement on most important issues save one, the
vexing question of institutional reform. This subject is
generally understood to mean re-dividing responsibilities
between federal, regional, and communal governments.
There is a good reason why it has poisoned the government
formation process - too many politicians on both sides of
the language divide have made promises on institutional
reform that they cannot redeem without near complete
surrender by the other side. Until Leterme and his
colleagues in the other coalition parties find a way to
eat their many ill-judged and provocative words of the
past five months, the formation process cannot move into
an end game phase.


3. (U) The prospects for any, let alone rapid, movement
during the last week of November appears to slim, most
press commentators and our political contacts agree.
Their pessimism now stands in sharp contrast to their
hopeful attitude following a November 7 vote by a
Parliamentary committee to redistrict the Brussels-Halle-
Vilvoorde (BHV). The committee vote, if it actually
becomes a law, would strip the vote of francophones
living in the periphery of Brussels to cast their federal
ballots for francophone parties competing in the Brussels
constituency. The francophone parties were aghast that
the Flemish had used their numerical advantage to push
through a measure opposed so strongly by French speakers.
Although anathema to the francophone parties (which had
walked out of the committee before the vote),francophone
Christian Democratic and Liberal leaders pointedly made
clear they were still willing to talk to Leterme about
forming the next government. Leterme himself had seemed
to hint at a willingness to back away from demands for
far-reaching changes in the balance between the regional
and federal government, suggesting that he would settle
for alterations requiring less than the two-thirds
majority needed to effect a constitutional change.


4. (U) The optimism of November 7 disappeared for three
reasons. The first reason involved pressure from
backbenchers in Leterme's party, and from his "cartel"
allies in the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA),a Flemish
nationalist group. This convinced CD&V leaders to issue
statement on November 9 indicating that the party would
continue to seek "meaningful" institutional reform.
Francophone leaders considered this as meaning that
Leterme was more interested in protecting his position in
the 2009 regional elections than in striking a deal with
them in November 2007. The second and third reasons
concerned the BHV dispute. Flemish leaders universally
rejected a francophone appeal for a conciliatory gesture
following the committee vote on BHV, arguing that they
were simply carrying out a judicial order and thus had
done nothing requiring any apology. Citing legal
grounds, the Flemish regional government infuriated
francophones further by refusing to approve the selection
of francophone mayors in three of the communes bordering
Brussels. Francophones thought this action to be a "slap
in the face" and disproportionate to the admitted
infractions committed by the three mayors, who had sent
francophone residents an official announcement of the
federal and communal elections in French rather than
Dutch, as required by Flemish law.


5. (U) Several other developments have contributed to the
gloomy atmosphere of the last week. King Albert II's
attempt to subsume the current debate on constitutional
change with a more long-term effort - the so-called
"Committee of Wise Men" - has yet to get under way, not

least because the Socialist and Green opposition parties
have refused to "rescue" Leterme from his own mistakes
during the formation process. The scattered catcalls
from Flemish nationalist louts and petty vandalism that
occurred in front of the cathedral in Brussels during a
November 15 Te Deum held to celebrate the Royal Family's
rule (with most members of the Royal family inside) made
clear that the Sovereign is far from being a unifying
figure. Most telling, however, has been the continued
absence of any formal discussions between the parties
since the November 7 vote in Parliament. There were no
signs of any talks getting underway over the next few
days.


6. (SBU) There are at least a few hints of possible
progress. Senior officials in the francophone and
Flemish Liberal parties have confirmed press reports of
informal contacts between the potential coalition party
presidents. They reportedly have attempted to sketch out
a possible format and timetable for relatively non-
controversial constitutional changes. Some leaders on
both sides of the language divide also have attempted,
albeit belatedly, to inject an element of common sense
into the debate. FM Karel De Gucht, for example,
published a long op-ed piece condemning the Flemish for
abusing their numerical superiority while castigating
francophones for unreasonably refusing even to talk about
Flemish interest in constitutional changes. Similarly,
the prominent francophone newspaper Le Soir has sponsored
a public forum where members of the two language groups
have been able to hear the other side's opinions,
unfiltered by journalistic commentators. It remains to
be seen if these positive steps will lead anywhere
useful.


7. (U) Finance Minister Reynders, a francophone Liberal,
has worked to strengthen his position as leader of his
community by convening the other francophone party
presidents to meetings at his ministerial office or
Liberal party headquarters. Reynders also has tried to
make clear to the Flemings that the francophones are
deeply interested not so much in a receiving a good will
gesture as an indication of their willingness to remain
part of a united Belgium, particularly one where the
majority community cannot impose actions on the minority.
In that connection, Reynders said in a recent interview
that he could see a need for institutional reforms, but
only if done in a fair and balanced manner. He
envisioned such a process taking place over several years
under the leadership of elder statesmen.


8. (SBU) Comment: Against all the evidence to the
contrary, Leterme may still succeed eventually in
delivering a new government for lack of any alternative
path out of the crisis. It will be, as one local
journalist put it, "an ugly baby," but odds are that it
will eventually come into being. End comment.
BUSH