Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRUSSELS3081
2007-10-04 15:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
USEU Brussels
Cable title:  

ESDP OFFICIALS SHOW LITTLE ENTHUSIASM FOR LEBANON

Tags:  PREL PGOV SY LE EUN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHBS #3081/01 2771537
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P 041537Z OCT 07
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT PRIORITY
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003081 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA (M. IRWIN) AND EUR/ERA (J. GIAUQUE)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY LE EUN
SUBJECT: ESDP OFFICIALS SHOW LITTLE ENTHUSIASM FOR LEBANON
BORDER MISSION

REF: A. STATE 128335


B. USEU BRUSSELS 2873

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Laurence Wohlers for reason
s 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003081

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA (M. IRWIN) AND EUR/ERA (J. GIAUQUE)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SY LE EUN
SUBJECT: ESDP OFFICIALS SHOW LITTLE ENTHUSIASM FOR LEBANON
BORDER MISSION

REF: A. STATE 128335


B. USEU BRUSSELS 2873

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Laurence Wohlers for reason
s 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: European Union member states have agreed
to send a small, political exploratory team to the region
later this month to determine Lebanese and Syrian willingness
to accept an EU border mission. However, HR Solana remains
opposed to the EU deploying an ESDP mission and has
instructed ESDP planners to remain uninvolved in the matter
for the time being. Even if proponents of the idea are able
to overcome Solana's opposition, the EU is unlikely to take
further steps to launch a mission before the conclusion of
the Presidential election process in Lebanon. End Summary.


2. (C) USEU Pol-Mil and Political officers continue to
consult with officials from EU institutions and member states
to discuss the evolution of the EU's thinking on a
Lebanon-Syria border mission. Alison Weston and Riccardo
Chelleri, Council ESDP officials responsible for Middle East
missions, confirmed that the EU will send Council Middle East
Director Christian Jouret and Policy Planning Director Helga
Schmid to Damascus and Beirut in mid-October to determine
Syrian and Lebanese commitment to the proposal and establish
potential conditions for EU engagement. This "exploratory"
mission is purposely small so as not to attract too much
attention or press. Contacts drew the distinction between
the Schmid-Jouret trip and a formal fact-finding mission,
noting that each of the EU's previous fact-finding missions
has resulted in an ESDP operation, so they do not wish to
give the impression that there is a mission on the table.
Member states are not ready to signal that level of
commitment and remain only in the preliminary stages of
thinking about the parameters of the mission.


3. (C/NF) Moreover, our interlocutors emphasized that HR
Solana is opposed to the EU taking on this role and has
instructed the ESDP planners to remain uninvolved with the
proposalfor now. According to Weston, the view among mny
institutional offcials is that the EU ill be setting
themselves up for failure by taking on this task, an
obviously undesirable outcome for the credibility of ESDP.
ESDP missions can be deployed only under explicit parameters
and conditions, namely, at the request of the UN or host
nation, with achievable objectives, and with a clear, or at
minimum, foreseeable, exit strategy. EU officials and some
member states would be loathe for the EU to field a mission
that many think would be unlikely to accomplish its goals and
would have little possibility of a realistic and timely end
state.


4. (C) Even if supporters of the proposal are able to
overcome Solana's opposition, which would likely be a lengthy
process, many member states still have reservations about the
mission and are showing little enthusiasm for taking further
steps before the Lebanese Presidential elections conclude. A
Spanish Perm Rep contact noted that, because of the lukewarm
reception of their proposal by many EU members, they too are
becoming less vocal in their advocacy for the time being.
Asked about prospects and likely timelines for further
decisions on the mission, Weston noted her personal view that
the mission would likely never happen, and Chelleri noted
separately that the EU launched a similar, small exploratory
mission almost one year ago that went "nowhere." He shared
his personal assessment that because some member states'
thinking on engaging Damascus has shifted since last year,
the current debate, in part, provides a guise for a broader
discussion of the EU's future engagement with Syria.


5. (C/NF) Comment: After a flurry of activity in response to
the Spanish proposal, the reality and pitfalls of the
potential undertaking seem to be setting in for EU officials.
The EU's way ahead on the border mission will be more
transparent when Schmid and Jouret return from the region,
but the decision to send a formal fact-finding mission will
not be taken lightly by member states and will probably
generate a lengthy debate. Additionally, in our view,
neither Solana's opposition nor the political toll the
mission could take on an already stretched ESDP should be
underestimated. Both of these factors could dramatically

BRUSSELS 00003081 002 OF 002


limit the parameters of the mission, if not sink the idea
altogether. End comment.


GRAY
.