U.S., EUROPEANS SEEK POLITICAL SOLUTION TO DRC'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003003

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PREF ZF CG EUN
SUBJECT: U.S., EUROPEANS SEEK POLITICAL SOLUTION TO DRC'S
NKUNDA PROBLEM

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Laurence Wohlers, reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Members of the Great Lakes Contact Group
brainstormed Sept. 21 in Brussels about political solutions
to the growing unrest among rebel forces in Eastern Congo
while acknowledging that the Government of the DRC appears to
be leaning toward a military solution. European Commission
officials expressed concern about a recent $5 billion loan
from China to the DRC, and noted that opposition leader
Jean-Pierre Bemba recently told Commissioner Michel he is
ready to return from Portugal to the DRC if the international
community can help ensure his personal safety. End summary.

Seeking political solutions for Nkunda
--------------

2. (C) Members of the Great Lakes Contact Group, meeting as a
group Sept. 21, and separately with Ambassador Joyce Leader
Sept. 20, said the time is right for the Government of the
Democratic Republic of Congo and the international community
to push hard for a political solution, backed by the military
muscle of MONUC, to the lingering problem of rebel forces led
by Gen. Laurent Nkunda. Two European Commission officials,
as well as the commander of MONUC, Gen. Babacar Gaye, said
President Kabila continually waffles on whether to use
military force or political persuasion against Nkunda, who
operates independently from his base in Goma. Gen. Gaye said
that Kabila has changed his mind numerous times. He recalled
a meeting during which Kabila told SRSG Swing that he would
use force against Nkunda, but when Swing expressed doubts
about whether he had the means to do so, Kabila quickly
changed his mind and said he would not use force. Joaquim
Salgueiro, Deputy Head of Unit for Central Africa at the
European Commission's Directorate General for Development,
said European Commissioner Louis Michel believes that
military solutions are a dead end, but that political
solutions must involve more than "talking around a table,"
they must include security guarantees. FARDC (the Congolese
Army) is incapable of providing the necessary security, so
MONUC must take on that responsibility, Salgueiro said. Gaye
said that violence remains a daily way of life in eastern
Congo. He said that Nkunda appears to have started the Aug.
27-29 fighting around Goma, but he quickly backed down when
FARDC, aided by MONUC, responded forcefully. "My personal
opinion is that he felt the wind turning," Gaye said.


3. (C) Christian Manahl, Deputy Director of Political Affairs
for MONUC, said Nkunda has shown flexibility recently, and
the time is right to deal with him through four avenues:
military, political, diplomatic, and the media.
Specifically, on the military and political fronts, Manahl
said it is important that Nkunda understand the options his
forces have for joining FARDC. On the diplomatic front, he
said that high-level meetings scheduled this month in New
York between Presidents Kabila and Kagame could send an
important signal about Congolese-Rwandan cooperation.
Getting the word out through the media about options
available to Nkunda's forces and the Government's plans to
ensure security in the region are also important parts of the
equation, Manahl said.


4. (C) Roeland Van de Geer, the EU's Special Envoy for the
Great Lakes Region, said the international community must
make sure it addresses the underlying concerns of Nkunda's
supporters and not just focus on getting Nkunda to accept
exile. Otherwise, he said, whoever replaces Nkunda could be
worse. Salgueiro said that the DRC's diplomatic initiatives
with neighboring states over Eastern Congo are important, but
shouldn't overshadow the need to address what is happening in
Congo itself, namely protection of Tutsi minority
populations, dealing with the FDLR, and breaking up "mafia
networks" profiting from unregulated natural resource
exports.


5. (C) Members of the Contact Group noted that the time may
be right for the Community of Sant'Egidio to play a role in
negotiating peace agreements in Eastern Congo. Koen
Vervaeke, head of the Council Secretariat's Africa Task
Force, also suggested reinvigorating a 2005 package of
measures for the FDLR's return to Rwanda that was compiled by
former EU Great Lakes Special Envoy Aldo Ajello. The package
specifically lays out actions that the Rwandan and Congolese
governments and the international community can take to
encourage FDLR returns. But despite all the brainstorming

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about potential political solutions, European Commission
officials and Contact Group members noted that all signs
point to Kabila taking an increasingly militant stance toward
Nkunda. During a visit to Goma Sept. 19, Kabila told
reporters that Nkunda's forces must join FARDC soon,
according to press reports.

Bemba's role as viable political opposition
--------------

6. (C) Salgueiro, reporting on talks that Commissioner
Michel held recently in Lisbon with opposition leader
Jean-Pierre Bemba, said there is a need for a viable
political opposition in DRC and that Bemba should be
encouraged to participate in the existing political system,
not operate outside of it. Salgueiro said Bemba told Michel
he is ready to return to DRC from Portugal, where he has been
living since April, but that he fears for his personal
safety. Bemba requested 20-25 specially trained police
officers to serve as a personal protection detail, Salgueiro
said. Ambassador Leader replied that a political opposition
is important, but the U.S. does not necessarily believe that
Bemba needs to be its leader.

Troublesome partnerships with China
--------------

7. (C) Salgueiro and Elisabeth Tison, Head of Unit for
Central Africa at the European Commission, said they were
concerned about news that China had loaned $5 billion to the
DRC. Specifically, they worried that China was receiving
valuable mining concessions in return for the loans.
Salgueiro said there are rumors in diplomatic circles that
the DRC is buying arms from China as well. He noted that the
Commission plans to give approximately 150 million euro per
year to the DRC over the next five years.


8. (U) Ambassador Leader cleared this report.
MURRAY
.