Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRUSSELS2908
2007-09-17 13:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
USEU Brussels
Cable title:  

SE NATSIOS AND EU STRATEGIZE FOR UPCOMING DARFUR

Tags:  PREL PREF SU EAID EUN 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002908 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017
TAGS: PREL PREF SU EAID EUN
SUBJECT: SE NATSIOS AND EU STRATEGIZE FOR UPCOMING DARFUR
PEACE TALKS


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Laurence Wohlers for reason
s 1.4 b and d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002908

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017
TAGS: PREL PREF SU EAID EUN
SUBJECT: SE NATSIOS AND EU STRATEGIZE FOR UPCOMING DARFUR
PEACE TALKS


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Laurence Wohlers for reason
s 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan Andrew Natsios
and EU officials agreed to consider a select group of three
or four Special Envoys for Sudan to bring the negotiating
power of individual states to the upcoming Darfur peace talks
in Libya and offer "carrots and sticks" that the UN does not
have. The European Commission has offered the UN and AU a
trust fund to assist in getting all the rebel leaders to the
negotiating table, but the offer has not yet been accepted,
EC officials said. Natsios again urged the EU to consider
sanctions against Sudan, but was again told that there is no
consensus among EU member states. End summary.

Darfur Peace Talks - Using Envoys to Leverage an Agreement
-------------- --------------

2. (C) SE Natsios and USAID Assistant Administrator for
Africa Kate Almquist met with European Union officials
September 12 to discuss potential strategies for supporting
Darfur peace talks in Libya scheduled to begin Oct. 27. Both
Natsios and the Europeans expressed concern about being
marginalized during the UN-organized talks. The UN has
informally proposed allowing only four outside
representatives to attend the talks. Herve Delphin, a member
of Commissioner Louis Michel's cabinet, suggested that
Natsios and the other envoys to Sudan self-select a group of
three or four to assist in negotiating with the rebel groups
and the Government of Sudan. Natsios agreed, saying it is
the U.S. and the EU, along with some select states, who can
influence the outcome because they possess the appropriate
"carrots and sticks." The UN, he said, does not. He noted
that the North-South Sudan peace agreement was reached with
the help of three central countries, the U.S., the UK, and
Norway (and the EU and the Netherlands in the Troika-Plus
context),and that perhaps a similar format would work in
negotiating a Darfur peace agreement. There are
approximately eight envoys from individual European states,
plus one representing the EU as a whole, as well as envoys

from the U.S., Canada, and China. Natsios agreed to consider
a meeting of special envoys to discuss the issue prior to the
September 21 contact group meeting in New York.

Getting rebels to the table
--------------

3. (C) The Europeans agreed with Natsios' assessment that
the Sudanese government is currently divided and weak, and
has lost much of its base in the North. Both U.S. and EU
officials noted that Arabs are increasingly turning against
the regime and taking up arms against it. Neither the U.S.
nor the EU is particularly happy with the UN's decision to
hold the peace talks in Libya, but they agreed that the time
may be right. They are concerned that Eritrea's decision to
hold competing peace talks will be counterproductive.
Natsios said it will be important for all sides to agree to a
ceasefire during the talks. EU Special Envoy to Sudan Torben
Brylle said that starting the negotiations will call the
bluff of all those who say they are ready to find a solution
to the conflict in Darfur. Delphin raised the question of
whether rebel groups who initially boycott the talks will be
able to join later if they change their minds or if they will
be "named and shamed." Both the U.S. and the EU are worried
about "spoilers" who will boycott the peace talks and then
disparage them. Neither Natsios nor the EU officials he met
believe that SLM leader Abdul Wahid will leave Paris to come
to the talks. Natsios said he believes Abdul Wahid is a poor
negotiator and is afraid of being unable to get favorable
terms for his people. Jean-Christophe Belliard, Deputy of
the Council Secretariat's Africa Unit, said Wahid has strong
support in refugee camps among the Fur, who have vertical
power structures and put great faith in a leader. Natsios
suggested that the U.S. and EU work behind the scenes to
cultivate an alternate leader such as a former Wali of Darfur
living in London whom Natsios described as a principled man.

Offers of assistance ignored
--------------

4. (C) Gavin Evans, Sudan Desk Officer in the EC's
DG-Development, said the European Commission has offered the
UN and AU a trust fund to assist in bringing all the rebels
to the table and to take away the excuse of financial
limitations. But, he said, neither the AU nor the UN has yet
taken up the EC on its offer. Natsios said he has had a
similar experience with the U.S.'s offer of technical
advisors, who would not have to be American, but would be

BRUSSELS 00002908 002 OF 002


funded by the USG. So far, the UN has not accepted the U.S.
offer, he said.

EU reluctance on sanctions continues
--------------

5. (C) Natsios, as in his previous two visits to Brussels in
the last eight months, strongly encouraged EU officials to
consider sanctions. He said the U.S. sanctions are having
economic and psychological effects on the Sudanese. In
meetings with Council Secretariat and Commission officials,
as well as Ambassadors to the Political Security Committee,
Natsios urged the EU to at least do the necessary preparatory
work so that it could quickly enact sanctions in the future
if desired. Koen Vervaeke, Head of the Council Secretariat's
Africa Unit, said the Africa Directors from EU member states
met recently and there is still no consensus on sanctions.
He said there is a reluctance on the part of some member
states even to discuss the issue because they believe it
would send the wrong message to the Government of Sudan.

Keeping Southern Sudan from seceding
--------------

6. (C) EU officials noted that the emphasis on Darfur often
overshadows the important issue of Southern Sudan and its
potential to secede from the rest of the country as it can
under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Brylle met
with Salva Kiir, President of Southern Sudan and Vice
President of Sudan, in August, and said Kiir was frustrated
and talking about war. Natsios said the dynamics between
Kiir and his Vice President Riek Machar are troubling in that
Kiir gives Machar too much power and that Machar, who has a
PhD, looks down on Kiir. Both EU and U.S. officials noted
that oil, and Chinese interests in particular, will play
heavily in the South's decision about secession. Brylle said
the oil coming from Southern Sudan is low quality. Belliard
said a contact at Total told him oil reserves were being
extracted and depleted quickly. The new Swedish PSC
Ambassador Olaf Skoog was concerned to hear from Natsios that
Tom Vraalsen is stepping down as head of the Assessment and
Evaluation Commission that monitors CPA implementation.
Skoog said it should be an EU priority to see that the
position is filled as quickly as possible. Roger Moore,
Director for East Africa and the Horn of Africa at the EC's
DG-Development, said the Commission is considering ways to
redirect about 45 percent of its aid to Sudan to the
Government of Southern Sudan. The Commission is legally
obligated to work through Khartoum, but is seeking
alternatives that would allow it to also work with the
government in Juba, he said.


7. (U) Special Envoy Natsios did not have an opportunity to
clear this report.
Murray
.