PORTUGUESE PRESIDENCY: GIVE US TIME ON KOSOVO,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002687

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: PREL NATO EUN KV RU TU
SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE PRESIDENCY: GIVE US TIME ON KOSOVO,
ADDRESS TURKEY/ESDP, KEEP RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA FROM
DETERIORATING

Classified By: CDA CHRIS MURRAY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B AND D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Portuguese Political and Security (PSC) Ambassador
Pais told Charge August 23 that the EU will only address
recognition and next steps on Kosovo as the December 10
report deadline moves closer. Pais floated a "hot house"
Dayton-like conference as a possible way to pressure the
Kosovars and Serbs to negotiate in good faith. Pais stressed
that the EU is attempting to meet some of Turkey's concerns
regarding ESDP by consulting with Ankara on the likely ESDP
mission in eastern Chad. He noted that Lisbon wants to use
the EU-Russia Summit to prevent relations with Moscow from
deteriorating further. Pais expects no problems with the
Inter-governmental Conference on the EU Reform Treaty. END
SUMMARY

KOSOVO: GIVE EU TIME
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2. (C) Charge and Acting Pol Chief met Portuguese PSC
Ambassador Carlos Pais and his deputy, Luis Ramos, August 23
to review the Portuguese Presidency's priorities. Asked
about Kosovo, Pais reasoned that EU member states may need
more time -- "a matter of weeks, not months" -- after the
Troika's report to the UNSYG to determine how to proceed,
including on the ESDP Rule of Law Mission. According to
Pais, many member states are increasingly recognizing the
reality that Kosovo will declare independence some time after
December 10. The key for the EU is to develop a consensus
whereby a member state(s) does not block the ESDP mission.
That said, some member states continue to view a UNSCR as a
sine qua non for such a mission. We questioned the
likelihood of a Russian abstention after December 10 given
Russia's approach in New York over the past several months.


3. (C) Pais agreed that the chances of a negotiated solution
resulting from the 120-period were slim. He raised the
possibility of a Dayton-like "hot house" conference, bringing
the parties together in a relatively isolated environment for
a last-ditch effort to reach a solution. We noted that 13
months of Ahtisaari's efforts had produced little genuine
compromise from the Serbs, adding that such a conference
might not work at such a late stage.

TURKEY: EU WILL CONSULT ON ESDP
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4. (C) Turning to Turkey, Pais said the EU will use the
September 18 Political Directors' Troika with the Turks to
consult about plans for the proposed ESDP Mission in eastern
Chad. The EU hopes this will demonstrate to Ankara that the
EU has taken note of Turkey's complaint regarding the lack of
prior consultation on ESDP missions. Various EU member
states have not yet, however, decided how to respond to PM
Erdogan's letter outlining several of Turkey's other
complaints regarding its "treatment" by the EU. No one, he
added, has yet proposed a creative and viable solution to the
apparent impasse regarding Turkey and the ESDP Missions in
Afghanistan and (possibly) Kosovo. With the Turkish general
election now completed, Ankara may be more forthcoming. That
said, he noted upcoming elections in EU member states (Greece
in September, Cyprus next spring) that might also be
(unspecified) factors affecting EU ties with Turkey.

RUSSIA: KEEP RELATIONS FROM DETERIORATING
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5. (C) Asked about the EU-Russia Summit set for October 26,
Pais acknowledged that few expect any concrete results.
Portugal's main aim is to use the summit to try to prevent
EU-Russian relations from deteriorating further. Pais opined
that the missile incident in Georgia is yet another
disturbing manifestation of opaque Russian actions.

HOPE TO WRAP UP IGC IN OCTOBER
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6. (C) Charge raised Portuguese expectations regarding the
Inter-governmental Conference on the draft Reform (previously
the "Constitutional") Treaty. Pais said Lisbon hopes to be
able to wrap up the work in October. Given Polish
preoccupation with early elections and with no indication
from PM Brown that a referendum would be held in the UK,
there should not be any major impediments to finalizing the
treaty for ratification, he added.

EU-AFRICA SUMMIT
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7. (C) We asked about internal EU deliberations on whether
to invite Mugabe to the EU-Africa Summit in December given
the UK's concerns and reiterated our opposition to such an
invitation. Pais stressed that the invitation would be to
the AU and that Portugal preferred to concentrate at this
stage on substantive preparations.

COMMENT
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8. (C) Pais has been in Brussels for just eight months and
his thoughts on most issues were somewhat thin. His
comments are another indication that the Portuguese
Presidency will not be a driving force in forging an EU
consensus on Kosovo, at least probably not before December

10. On Russia, too, the Portuguese Presidency appears to be
in a holding pattern -- trying to keep relations from getting
worse but without strategizing on how to achieve this. On
Turkey, the Portuguese would like to take positive steps but
new ideas are in short supply.
MURRAY
.