Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRUSSELS2686
2007-08-24 12:12:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

Leterme's Exit Means Further Delays Before

Tags:  PGOV BE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0022
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #2686 2361212
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241212Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6238
INFO RUCNMEN/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 8060
UNCLAS BRUSSELS 002686 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: Leterme's Exit Means Further Delays Before
Belgium Gets a New Government


UNCLAS BRUSSELS 002686

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: Leterme's Exit Means Further Delays Before
Belgium Gets a New Government



1. (U) Summary: A prolonged period of uncertainty seems
likely to follow Flemish Christian Democratic (CD&V) leader
Leterme's August 23 decision to halt his attempt to form
Belgium's next government. His efforts broke down after it
became clear that his potential coalition partners (the
Flemish and francophone Christian Democrats and Flemish and
francophone Liberals) could not smooth the edges off a
sharp disagreement about the appropriate duties of the
federal and regional administrations. In terms of next
steps, most observers King Albert II to ask an elder
statesman like current European Investment Bank chairman
Philippe Maystadt to mediate or, in the Belgian vernacular,
"deminer." This person's job is to clear the way for the
next attempt to form a government, a task that could again
fall to Leterme. The political class is using the delay
prior to the King's expected announcement to indulge in a
vigorous round of the blame game. End summary.


2. (U) After hurrying home from a vacation in the South of
France, Belgium's monarch agreed on August 23 to accept
CD&V leader Leterme's resignation as "formateur" of
Belgium's next government. Leterme reached the difficult
decision to lay down his responsibility 74 days after the
election. During this period, he failed to overcome
francophone suspicions that he was insufficiently committed
to the maintenance of a strong federal state, and a series
of gaffes, not the least being his inability to sing the
Belgian national anthem in French, fueled fears that he was
at heart a closet Flemish nationalist beholden for votes to
the NVA, a small nationalist party allied closely with
Leterme's Christian Democrats.


3. (U) Added to these handicaps was a wide gulf on social
and economic questions. According to participants in the
formation talks, the left-leaning francophone Christian
Democrats (CdH) refused to support the other parties in
reining in the costs of unemployment insurance, and in
other free market oriented changes. Despite this obstacle
to an agreement, Leterme's attempt to forge a government
broke down over the constitutional reform issue. It became
clear during a marathon negotiating session on August 21-22
that the Flemish parties would not back away from demands
for shifting greater powers to the regions, and that the
francophones would not cease their opposition to such
changes.


4. (U) King Albert II is responsible for the next act in
this drama. Local observers expect him to name an
"informateur" from one of the francophone parties to
canvass the four negotiating partners on ways out of the
current mess. Current European Investment Bank head
Philippe Maystadt is a leading candidate for this elder
statesman's job, as are former Justice Minister Melchior
Wathelet, former House of Representatives Speaker Raymond
Langendries (all francophone Christian Democrats),and
former Defense Minister Franois-Xavier De Donnea (a
francophone Liberal). Having caused the current mess, the
francophone parties must solve it, according to NVA leader
De Wever. Assuming the informateur divines a way forward,
the King would then name a new "formateur" to cobble a
government together. That person could well be Leterme
again or, less likely, francophone Liberal leader Reynders,
the other party that did especially well in the June
elections.


5. (U) In the meantime, Belgium's political class is busy
pointing fingers at any and all for precipitating the
present storm. CdH leader Milquet is the leading bogey-
person on the Flemish side, where her stubborn refusal to
take part in negotiations on far-reaching constitutional
changes is widely considered the prime source of the
crisis. Leterme plays the same role in the francophone
community.


6. (U) Comment: No one said it would be easy to form a
government after Belgium's June elections. That said, the
difficulty Leterme has encountered suggests strongly that
the job is more complicated than most people thought. A
prolonged delay will mean putting off difficult issues like
dealing with the looming Social Security crisis, and
relatively straightforward issues like deciding who will
represent Belgium at UNGA. End Comment.
BUSH