EU CONTACTS DISCUSS THE MIDDLE EAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002475

SIPDIS

NOFORN
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2017
TAGS: PREL XF LE SY EUN EAID
SUBJECT: EU CONTACTS DISCUSS THE MIDDLE EAST

REF: LONDON 2928

Classified By: Deputy Political Minister Counselor Alyce Tidball for re
asons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. SUMMARY. (C) Contacts in Brussels confirmed that while
many member states question the practicality of isolating
Hamas, the EU is firmly committed to the Quartet principles
and will not waver in its support for them. Despite a recent
flurry of press articles and think tank analyses calling for
a more "pragmatic" approach to the Middle East Peace Process
(MEPP) which would include dialogue with Hamas, EU member
states have determined that such outreach would only serve to
undermine PA President Abbas at a time when showing support
for him and PM Fayyad is of utmost importance. EU contacts
insisted that Hamas would eventually have to be part of the
solution, but said Abbas should be the one to negotiate with
Hamas and he should do so from a position of strength, a
position the international community could hopefully help him
achieve. Concrete results are also critical to not
encouraging the development of Gaza as a separate political
entity and to keeping Hamas from expanding its support in the
West Bank. Contacts said there is a strong possibility Hamas
could expand into the West Bank, but for the moment Abbas has
strong backing and a window of opportunity to stop
infiltration by delivering results. One contact said the
Arab League wants a clear horizon for a Palestinian state and
backing for the Arab initiative. Speculation abounds about
the reasons for UK PM Brown's reported interest in naming
current UN Middle East Envoy Michael Williams as his own
Middle East envoy. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) EU HiRep Javier Solana quickly announced his support
for the President's July 16 call for an international meeting
on the MEPP, but some European analysts decried EU support
for U.S. policies, claiming that it was time to engage with
Hamas. While many European Commission working level contacts
have consistently questioned the wisdom of isolating Hamas,
EU leaders in both the Council and the Commission have stood
firmly behind the Quartet principles (renunciation of
violence, acceptance of previous agreements and recognition
of Israel's right to exist) as conditions for engagement with
Hamas.


3. (C) Contacts in the Portuguese presidency permanent
representation, the UK permanent representation, and the
German permanent representation confirmed to poloff in recent
conversations that member states, some more enthusiastically
than others, agree on a policy of strong support for Abbas
and refusal to engage with Hamas. Contacts noted that Hamas
would have to be dealt with, but said PA President Abbas
should be the one to negotiate with Hamas, since this is an
internal Palestinian issue.


4. (C) Christian Jouret, EU Council Middle East Unit Head,
welcomed U.S. re-engagement on the MEPP and Blair's
appointment as Quartet representative. While the EU is
clearly committed to supporting Abbas, he said, the Hamas
problem remains. The hope that the West Bank will become a
model Arab democracy and the Gazans will wake up and realize
their mistake is unlikely to become a reality. Hamas is not
going to abandon its ideology overnight and there is a
danger, if Abbas cannot deliver real progress very soon, that
its presence and influence in the West Bank could expand.
While there is no serious talk now of a Palestinian National
Unity Government, Jouret estimates one will likely have to be
negotiated within six months.


5. (C) Abbas and Olmert, Jouret said, should go to the
U.S.-led international meeting with some agreement on
political horizons in order to achieve concrete results at
the meeting. This is essential to supporting Abbas and
giving him bargaining strength for the inevitable negotiation
with Hamas. Regarding the international meeting, Jouret
asked for more details on who would be invited, insisting
that Saudi attendance is critical. He used the oft-cited
phrase "cautious optimism" for the current mood in the EU and
said they are relying on the re-engagement of the U.S. and
will do everything they can to make the effort a success.


6. (C) The Portuguese Presidency's Brussels-based Middle
East watcher Joao Costa was disappointed that the President's
speech held "nothing new." in his opinion, for the MEPP and
said the Israelis have to define a long term perspective on
such issues as the settlements. The EU is encouraging Abbas
to re-engage with Hamas, Costa said, emphasizing that Hamas
cannot be dismissed as a marginal group. Meanwhile, he said,
the priority is to strengthen Abbas so he is in a better
position to negotiate. If the international meeting is a
success it will reinforce Abbas, but if he fails to bring
home anything new and positive it will weaken him. He said

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the July 23 General and External Affairs Council (GAERC)
statement reflects the EU's views on the clear need for
Israeli movement. (NOTE: The GAERC conclusions were debated
at length in the Political and Security Committee (PSC) and
many were unhappy with the conclusion's length and tone.
Several contacts told us this exercise has led to a committee
being named to study the process for drafting GAERC
conclusions. Another contact said the weak Portuguese
presidency was simply not up to the task. END NOTE.)


7. (C) Commission Deputy Head of the Near East Unit Gianluca
Grippa confirmed reftel account of Blair's July 27 London
meeting. He said Blair hoped to have a plan ready by the end
of September and that he was counting on incremental steps by
the Israelis and hoping that with sufficient progress in the
process of Palestinian state-building Hamas would be
convinced to join the process. The German representative,
Reinicke, took pains to reiterate that the road map is not
dead and Blair confirmed that nothing from the MEPP would be
discarded. Recalling the EU-Med Foreign Ministers' early
July letter to Blair calling the Road Map a failure, Grippa
noted that none of those present at the meeting called for
discarding the road map.


8. (C) German Deputy PSC representative Christian Buck said
the EU is concerned about the possibility of Gaza developing
as a separate political entity. It is urgent that Abbas be
able to deliver results so that he can become more credible
as a leader and negotiate from a position of strength. Buck
noted that German Foreign Service Officer Katarina Lach was
selected to work on Blair's staff. Lach was already working
in Ramallah and reportedly speaks fluent Hebrew and Arabic.


9. (C) EU Special Envoy to the MEPP Marc Otte's newly
arrived Counselor Cherif Castel, on loan from the French
Foreign Ministry and recently returned from their embassy in
Damascus, provided input from the region. He said Arab
League SYG Amre Moussa supports an international meeting, but
wants it to be under a UN or Quartet umbrella. The Arabs,
Castel said, want a clear horizon for a Palestinian state and
backing for the Arab initiative, focusing on the settlements,
return of refugees and East Jerusalem. They want a
comprehensive plan covering both the Israeli-Palestinian
issue and the Israeli-Syrian problem.


10. (C) Castel said the EU is not, at this point, taking too
seriously information that Hamas is infiltrating the West
Bank. Abbas is reforming his security services and has a
67-70 percent approval rating in the polls. Infiltration, he
warned, could find fertile ground if the peace talks fail to
deliver something. If Abbas and Fayyad do not receive strong
support and deliver concrete results before the end of the
year, they could lose ground. Everybody agrees this is a
specific moment in time where something could be achieved,
but they also recognize that if too little is delivered in
the short term the opportunity will be lost. The problem
with Hamas remains and there is a strong Arab line, led by
Syria and supported by Russia, pushing for new talks between
Fatah and Hamas.


11. (C) Although economic assistance and development will
help support Abbas, market access is key to making that
development sustainable, Castel said. A broader agreement
must be reached and must pressure the Israelis to give
"something" (i.e. territory) to Abbas. Castel suggested
Israel might be tempted to "play the clock" since, he said,
many Israelis do not believe the current initiative is in
their best interest. Urgency is of the essence, because
failure now could lead to a Palestinian civil war and a
failure of the current Israeli government, which would likely
usher in a Netanyahu-led government focused on security and
further isolation. If, however, the U.S., EU and the
international community can help deliver results in this
process they will also deliver a strong message of moderation
to Hamas and other extremist groups.


12. (C) Commission Desk Officer for West Bank/Gaza Andrea
Fontana confirms there seems to be agreement on an Ad Hoc
Liaison Committee meeting on the margins of UNGA. But, he
said, there remains considerable confusion about the November
international meeting and December Donors' Conference and how
the pieces fit together (and how we would like to see them
fit together). One particular concern is the timetable: if
the Donors' Conference will only happen in December, it is
not clear how that will help Abbas and Fayyad.


13. (C/NF) Regarding the possible appointment of current UN
Middle East Envoy Michael Williams to the position of Middle
East Envoy for PM Brown, Castel said Brown's people are still
talking with UNSYG Ban Ki Moon to see if he would agree to
release Williams. He speculated that Brown either distrusts

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Blair in his new position of Quartet Representative or that
he thinks Williams is wasted on Ban Ki Moon's staff and does
not trust the UN to bring value to the process. A contact in
the UK mission here suggested it may be simply an effort by
Brown to save Williams from working in a dysfunctional office
where BKM reportedly listens only to his South Korean
advisors.


14. (C) COMMENT. Despite the press articles and think tank
analyses we see the EU as an institution firmly committed to
the current Quartet principles. There is, however, a strong
current of frustration, especially among the Mediterranean EU
member states, with the previous lack of movement. The EU
sees the Hamas takeover of Gaza as a window of opportunity to
strengthen Abbas and hopefully give him the tools to bring
moderate Hamas members into a unity government. This will
require movement from Israel and the support of the
international community. END COMMENT.

Murray
.