S/E NATSIOS URGES EU TO SUPPORT SUDAN SANCTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002302

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: PREL SU CD EUN
SUBJECT: S/E NATSIOS URGES EU TO SUPPORT SUDAN SANCTIONS
AND PEACEKEEPERS FOR CHAD


Classified By: Enlargement/Africa Unit Chief V. Carver for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Special Envoy for Sudan Andrew Natsios met
with EU officials and French FM Kouchner June 22 to share
views on progress in Darfur. Natsios expressed support for
FM Kouchner's plan to move French and EU peacekeepers into
Chad. He continued to press the EU to implement its own
sanctions against Sudan, and heard from Commission officials
more willingness than in the past to consider them. EU
officials agreed that the U.S. and EU should support only one
NGO to facilitate rebel group negotiations since the
multiplication of outside efforts was proving
counterproductive. Both Natsios and his European
counterparts also agreed that continued conflict in Darfur
not only destabilizes the region but imperils North-South
unity in Sudan and makes it more likely that Southern Sudan
will secede in 2011 as allowed under the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA). End Summary.

French peacekeeping plan for Chad
--------------


2. (C) In a breakfast meeting with SE Natsios, French FM
Kouchner expressed great optimism for his three-pronged plan
to bring peacekeepers to Chad, but acknowledged that the EU,
"sees us (the French) as newcomers who are wrecking the whole
(EU) operation." Kouchner asked for U.S. support,
particularly in influencing other EU Member States to support
his proposal to send up to 3,000 French (and possibly
Swedish, Norwegian and other) troops to Chad to protect
civilians and rebuild villages. Chadian President Deby has
endorsed the plan, which gives responsibility for patrolling
the border with Sudan to Chadian gendarmes and police, not
the international military forces, Kouchner said. The French
would be replaced as soon as possible by EU peacekeepers, who
would eventually be replaced by UN peacekeepers. "We can go
quickly but we are not prepared to stay for a long time,"
Kouchner said. French PSC Ambassador Christine Roger
cautioned that the EU will need some serious persuading to
agree to the French plan. Germany, in particular, is
reluctant to send European peacekeepers to Africa, and other
key countries, including Portugal, Sweden, and Denmark, must
also be brought on board, she said, adding that U.S. support
could help change minds. SE Natsios told the Europeans, "We
think it's an excellent idea."


3. (C) During a luncheon with various EU and member state
officials, German and British officials expressed
reservations about the French plan, as did the Africa
director for the Council Secretariat. Michael O'Neill,
Political Counselor at the UK Permanent Representation to the
EU, said the extent of Chadian President Deby's support for
the peacekeepers would have to be clarified, and an exit
strategy for the EU would have to be laid out before the UK
could back the plan. Koen Vervaeke, head of the Africa
policy unit at the Council Secretariat, also used the term
"exit strategy," saying the EU would not undertake an
open-ended commitment without a clear plan from the UN to
replace the EU troops at a time certain. German PSC
Ambassador Clemens Von Goetze wondered whether improved
conditions in Chad might compel refugees to move from Darfur
to Chad, but Natsios said that, unless they felt seriously
threatened, it was unlikely refugees would move to a place
where they weren't eligible to vote. Von Goetze said the
German public might question why the EU was putting
peacekeepers in Chad when the more serious problems were in
Darfur. "The public will say that you are doing an easy job
in an easy place with French troops that are already on the
ground," he said. Jean-Christophe Belliard, of the Council
Secretariat's Africa policy unit, said that peace in eastern

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Chad could help simplify the political process in Darfur.
(Note: Since Natsios visited Brussels, the French have
modified their proposal to use deployment of the planned
UN/AU hybrid force in Sudan as the exit strategy that would
allow EU troops to leave eastern Chad. The Germans and UK
have reportedly softened their stance and have told the
French they will not block the plan to send EU peacekeepers -
primarily from France and the Nordic countries - to Chad.)

EU moves cautiously forward on sanctions
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4. (C) Kouchner told Natsios that President Bashir does not

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acknowledge the realities in Darfur and has no interest in
resolving the situation. "The government is very close to us
and we are offering them an escape way, but they don't want
an escape way," said Kouchner. Although Bashir professes not
to care what the West thinks, Kouchner believes Bashir and
his top officials are feeling the economic pinch of U.S.
sanctions. Natsios said that if euro transactions could be
restricted in addition to dollar transactions, the Sudanese
regime would be further affected. During a separate meeting
with EU officials, Vervaeke, of the Council Secretariat, told
Natsios there is no consensus within the EU to impose
European sanctions on Sudan. O'Neill, of the UK, said his
government believed a credible threat of sanctions could be
effective. Roger Moore, Director for the Horn of Africa at
the European Commission's Directorate General for
Development, said that the EU has never imposed trade
sanctions on an African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) country
during its long history of ACP partnership agreements. Moore
told Natsios, however, that he could imagine the EU
supporting targeted sanctions like asset freezing and travel
bans against select Sudanese individuals, similar to those
the EU has imposed on Zimbabwe. Both Natsios and Moore
shared concerns about whether EU funds given to the AU to pay
the salaries of peacekeepers in Sudan are being used properly
given reports that the peacekeepers have not been paid in
months.

Too many outsiders wanting to help
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5. (C) Kouchner and Natsios agreed on the importance of
getting rebel groups to agree on a united stand for further
negotiation with the Sudanese government. Instead of
allowing numerous well-intentioned Western organizations to
continue to offer mediation assistance, Natsios pressed, and
Kouchner seemed to agree, that the Center for Humanitarian
Dialogue in Geneva should be tapped to take the lead.
Kouchner noted that Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) Leader
Abdul Wahid still has strong support and influence in Darfur
despite the fact that he now spends all his time in Paris.
At Natsios, request, Kouchner said he would ask Wahid to
attend rebel group negotiating sessions in Nairobi and Juba.
EU officials in the larger luncheon meeting agreed that only
one outside group should work with the rebels, otherwise the
Government of Sudan will continue to delay progress on peace
talks. Said Belliard, of the Council Secretariat, "Khartoum
has an interest in multiplication of diplomatic efforts."

Implications for North-South unity
--------------


6. (SBU) Natsios and EU officials agreed that continued
instability in Darfur makes it more likely that southern
Sudan will secede from the North in 2011, as it is allowed to
under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Belliard said that
EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana's consistent message to
the government in Khartoum has been, "Render unity
attractive." And to China, with vast economic interests in
Sudan, Solana has said, "Push Khartoum on Darfur. Otherwise
the country will break apart," Belliard said.


7. (U) SE Natsios did not have an opportunity to clear on
this report.
GRAY
.