LETERME'S CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS GAIN MOMENTUM IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001882

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: LETERME'S CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS GAIN MOMENTUM IN
FLEMISH POLLS AS ELECTION DRAWS NEAR

REF: A. BRUSSELS 1672 BRUSSELS 1642


B. BRUSSELS 1576 BRUSSELS 1558 BRUSSELS 438

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Classified By: POLCOUNS TED ANDREWS. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) With the election just days away, the latest polls
show the alliance of the centrist Christian Democrats and the
moderate nationalist New Flemish Alliance (CD&V/NVA),headed
by CD&V's Yves Leterme, leading in Flanders with close to
thirty percent of the votes. If the voters confirm these
polls and the French-speaking Christian Democrats perform
well, the two Christian Democratic parties would form the
biggest political family, putting Leterme in a good position
to form Belgium's next governing coalition. (While the PM
position has traditionally gone to the political family with
the largest number of votes, there is no requirement for it.)
The Socialists, led by Johan Vande Lanotte, follow with
close to twenty percent, and Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt's
Liberals (OpenVLD) trail with approximately seventeen
percent. Vlaams Belang (VB),an extremist anti-immigrant
party, has about twenty percent also but, since no other
party is as yet willing to serve in a government with VB, it
will not figure in coalition formation calculations.


2. (C) Leterme, who has been leading in the polls for almost
a year, appears to be gaining momentum as acrimony spreads
among the two leading francophone parties, internal conflict
grows within the VB ranks, the Green parties gain strength,
and the Prime Minister's reelection effort fails to catch
fire. When polled, voters in Flanders ranked Leterme ahead
of Verhoftadt as the candidate they would like to see as the
next Prime Minister, with Flemish Socialist leader Vande
Lanotte coming in third, followed by VB spokesman Filip De
Winter.


3. (C) The professorial, low-key Leterme has run his
campaign on a platform of good governance, which includes
fiscal responsibility and constitutional reform (a codeword
for shifting powers to the regional governments),as well as
calling for more state investment in improving Belgium's
military capability. Leterme's campaign has criticized
Verhofstadt's administration for issuing a string of "unkept
promises" and called for "a better and different government."
Recognizing the continuing appeal of Flemish nationalists,
Leterme has fended off calls by some (most notably, Didier
Reynders, the francophone Liberal party leader and current
Finance Minister) to ditch or weaken the separatist platform
of Leterme's NVA partner, pledging that CD&V and NVA are
"inextricably linked and cannot be separated after the
elections." While the alliance with NVA has increased CD&V's
voter base, concerns remain whether the partnership is big
enough to produce enough votes to garner Leterme the PM
position. CD&V Member of Parliament Pieter de Crem, a
disappointed candidate for the post of party president, has
privately questioned whether his party's alliance with NVA
will be enough to win and worries that the Socialists will
therefore slip in, with Vande Lanotte anointed as PM.


4. (C) Vande Lanotte, however, has his own problems, having
been recently forced to referee the conflict between the
francophone liberals (MR) and socialists (PS). Prominent PS
leaders have cast doubt on whether a governing coalition
could comfortably include MR president Reynders, who in turn
has slammed the socialists for corruption. PM Verhofstadt
has gotten involved too, attempting to align himself with MR
by telling Flemish voters that a vote for the Socialists or
the Christian Democrats was a vote for PS and more economic
stagnation in Wallonia. The Prime Minister knows that his
best chance rests on the possibility of the two liberal
parties together gaining over 40 parliamentary seats.
Flemish socialist leader Vande Lanotte, cognizant of the
decisive role traditionally played by the Flemish vote, has
made clear that he too would dump his francophone
counterparts if doing so would win him the top job.


5. (C) Leterme's chances for success are good, but not
absolute. He is hampered by the need to follow through on
his state reform promise, a promise to which NVA will hold
him. Some observers see PS, a potential partner in a
government coalition, as the problem with this plan because
"no French-speaking party wants state reform." They realize
that any reform would mean less money for the French-speaking
region, and more responsibility for the governments of the
French-speaking areas. Leterme has consistently said he will
not compromise his principles, including state reform, for
the PM seat (in an early "show of principle," Leterme briefly
withdrew from his NVA alliance when the nationalist party
allowed controversial Flemish politician Jean-Marie Dedecker
to join. Dedecker departed when NVA, seeking to placate
CD&V, failed to put him on their candidates list).


6. (C) Having Leterme in the Prime Minister's office poses

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no obvious dangers to U.S. interests. If Leterme becomes PM,
he will have some catching up to do on foreign policy,
notably on security policy issues. Focused on domestic
issues throughout his tenure as Minister-President of
Flanders and throughout this campaign, his foreign policy
priorities are a bit hazy at this point. He has been
progressive on social issues (one of his staffers thought
CD&V would want to head the Ministry of Social Affairs and
Public Health when a government is formed),and, as head of
the Flemish government, he has spearheaded programs to more
fully integrate Muslim immigrants into Flanders. He was
against the war in Iraq but favors a more capable Belgian
defense. His mission has always been state reform, with a
heavy emphasis on extending more competencies to Belgium's
regions. Indeed, some have said Leterme, already powerful as
Minister-President of the economically viable Flanders, seeks
federal power merely as a means to extend more power to
Flanders.


7. (C) A Vande Lanotte premiership does pose a potential
threat. Although the former minister's personal views are
somewhat inchoate, he has given so many hostages to the
pacifist/extreme-left wing of his party that he might not
have much room to maneuver on important policy issues like
providing aid to Afghanistan. The Flemish socialists have a
strong pacifist tradition and Vande Lanotte has proposed
halving the defense budget. A coalition led by his SP.A
would be more difficult for US interests in NATO, defense,
and regional security operations. We note, however, that no
one ever went broke betting on the ability of Belgian
politicians to eat their words when it comes to choosing a
ministerial seat.

FOX
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