Belgians React to Sarkozy's Influence

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 001878

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE EU
SUBJECT: Belgians React to Sarkozy's Influence


Effect in-Country
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1. Overall, Belgians have welcomed the election of
French President Nicolas Sarkozy. He is particularly
supported by this country's northern, largely
conservative Flemish majority. Liberal (Flemish VLD)
Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt was quick to extend
congratulations to France's new president. As he
struggles to keep his position following Belgium's own
elections on June 10, Verhofstadt shows interest in
maintaining close bilateral ties and, like Sarkozy,
advancing the European Union agenda. For their part,
Francophone Belgians also recognize in him a source of
energy and new ideas that could by osmosis seep across
the border into fresh economic activity in Belgium's
southern Wallonia.

Effect on the Polls
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2. Non-conservative Belgian politicians have
maintained a studied diffidence about the victory of
Sarkozy, lest he distract from their own chances at the
polls. The dynamic, head-to-head nature of the French
election system and its latest super-personalities
inspired intense scrutiny by the Belgian public during
France's long presidential race. The complex, multi-
party and regional voting system at home pales in
comparison to the French. Major newspapers have
featured prominent before- and after-articles about
France's new president. In fact, of the 14.5 million
people reported to have watched the May 2 presidential
debate between Sarkozy and presidential hopeful
Segolene Royal, 500,000 of them were Belgian. In a
debate May 26 between Francophone Elio Di Rupo (PS) and
Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V) Yves Leterme, the two
leading and most colorful contenders in the Belgian
election, an estimated fewer than 300,000 francophones
worldwide tuned in.


3. Indeed, Sarkozy's election was a particular blow to
the dominant Socialist Party (PS) in Belgium's Walloon
region contingent with industrial northern France. Di
Rupo, a vice-president of the Socialist International,
attended the final campaign rally of PS candidate Royal
in Lille in hopes of a little rub-off effect. It is
unclear what influence Sarkozy's popular mandate may
have had since encouraging francophone Liberals and
Christian-Democrats to uncap fresh scandals and
increase challenges that have emerged to Di Rupo's
party two weeks before the vote. Belgium seems on hold
until its own election results are in before fully
embracing Sarkozy lest the nation's key leaders change.


4. In any event, Belgian political leaders are waiting
to see how Sarkozy carries out his promises to renew
France's economy which, it is hoped, will in turn
energize the Belgian economy, particularly in the less
prosperous Walloonian south. Sarkozy and PM Verhofstadt
agree that a strong Euro zone will foster job
opportunities and economic growth that can benefit both
countries. Belgium is a nation whose exports equal
roughly three-quarters of its GDP, so its political
leaders strongly favor EU policies that integrate
European economies and thus benefit Belgium's highly-
export-oriented industrial structure.

Effect on the Union
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5. Belgian political and opinion leaders also appear
curious about the influence that Sarkozy's
determination and charismatic presence will have on the
European Union. Headquartered in Brussels, the EU
holds key political and financial importance to
Belgium. Belgians are quite proud to call Brussels
"the capital of Europe" and will pay close attention to
Sarkozy's relationship with the EU. According to the
press, Sarkozy has won the favor of EC President Jose
Manuel Barroso, in particular, for his support of
economic reforms and his commitment to bring EU members
to an agreement about the EU Constitution. Belgian
parties are divided on this issue of renegotiating a
European basic law but have kept European policy
outside of the current electoral debate.


6. In a lightning visit to Brussels on May 23,
President Sarkozy met with Barroso; Sarkozy also met
with PM Verhofstadt. Both confirmed their commitment
to create a separate economic body to have a firmer
hand in the regulation of the Euro throughout the
European Union. They also agreed that the EU must work
quickly to find a solution for the Constitutional
Treaty. Sarkozy reiterated his call for a quickly
negotiated new EU Constitutional document. For his
part, Verhofstadt said publicly that he stands behind
his public which ratified the failed EU constitution.
While this might appear to divide the two leaders and
their nations, both expressed a willingness to find a
solution soon. Barroso, in the meantime, stated that
the European Commission is not in the process of
negotiating an "ideal" treaty; but rather one on which
all members can agree.

The Turkish Question
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7. With a large Turkish immigrant community (250,000),
Belgium is sympathetic to Turkey's desire to join the
European Union. Verhofstadt stated that he cannot
rightfully withhold membership from a country which is
in compliance with all of the membership criteria.
Since the requirements are clear, it is up to Turkey to
determine how it will meet the criteria for membership.
In stark contrast stands Sarkozy's major campaign
commitment to do everything in his power to deny Turkey
EU membership.
FOX