AMBASSADOR'S INITIAL MEETINGS WITH PM VERHOFSTADT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001871

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

RABAT FOR BUSH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: PREL MILI CG BE
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S INITIAL MEETINGS WITH PM VERHOFSTADT
AND FM DE GUCHT

Classified By: AMBASSADOR SAM FOX, REASONS 1.4.B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: IN AN HOUR-LONG MEETING, AMBASSADOR REVIEWED
WITH PM VERHOFSTADT KEY ISSUES IN THE U.S.-BELGIAN
RELATIONSHIP INCLUDING THE PRESIDENT'S CLIMATE CHANGE
INITIATIVE, TROOPS FOR AFGHANISTAN, AND RECONSTRUCTION AID
AND DEBT RELIEF FOR IRAQ. PM REVIEWED PROSPECTS FOR THE
FEDERAL ELECTIONS, WHICH WILL HAPPEN ON JUNE 10, AND PRESSED
THE AMBASSADOR TO SUPPORT AN INTERNATIONALLY SANCTIONED TRIAL
FOR JOSEPH KONY OF THE LORD'S RESISTANCE ARMY. IN A SHORTER
MEETING WITH FM DE GUCHT, AMBASSADOR REVIEWED THE SAME
ISSUES, PRESSING DE GUCHT FOR TO MEET SACEUR'S REQUEST FOR
MORE TROOPS FOR AFGHANISTAN, AND DISCUSSED PROSPECTS FOR
DEALING WITH RUSSIA ON KOSOVO. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) AMBASSADOR FOX, ACCOMPANIED BY DCM IMBRIE, MET FOR AN
HOUR WITH PM VERHOFSTADT ON MAY 6. PM'S NATIONAL SECURITY
ADVISOR CHRIS HOORNAERT JOINED THE MEETING. AFTER INITIAL
GREETINGS AND CONGRATULATIONS ON THE AMBASSADOR'S POSTING, PM
REVIEWED THE IMPROVEMENT IN U.S./BELGIAN RELATIONS FROM THE
LOW POINT OF 2003. HE NOTED PRESIDENT BUSH'S VISIT TO
BELGIUM IN FEBRUARY 2005 AND HIS SPEECH AS THE TURNING POINT.
VERHOFSTADT SAID THAT THE NATO/EU FOREIGN MINISTERS
TRANSATLANTIC MEETINGS WHICH HE HAD PROPOSED HAVE BECOME AN
EFFECTIVE MECHANISM FOR DISCUSSIONS WHICH TRANSCEND NATO AND
EU INTERESTS, HIGHLIGHTING SPECIFICALLY DR. RICE'S EFFECTIVE
"DE-DRAMATIZATION" OF THE CIA FLIGHTS ISSUE IN THE
TRANSATLANTIC MEETING IN 2006.


3. (C) AMBASSADOR AND DCM SUBSEQUENTLY MET WITH FM DE GUCHT
WHO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY HIS CHEF DE CABINET, DIRK ACHTEN, HIS
DEPUTY CHEF DE CABINET FOR TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS WALTER
STEVENS, AND HIS DIRECTOR FOR WESTERN EUROPE AND THE
AMERICAS, LUC DE VOLDER. DE GUCHT, JUST BACK FROM A LONG DAY
OF CAMPAIGNING IN THIS LATE EVENING MEETING, DISCUSSED ISSUES
OF U.S. AND BELGIAN INTERESTS MORE BRIEFLY BEFORE EXCUSING
HIMSELF TO RETURN TO THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL.

--------------
ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (SBU) VERHOFSTADT REVIEWED THE JUNE 10 BELGIAN ELECTIONS,
TELLING THE AMBASSADOR THAT OTHER THAN FOR THEIR MEETING, HIS
TIME WAS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY DEDICATED TO CAMPAIGNING. HE WAS
LESS THAN OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR HIS OPEN VLD
PARTY IN THE ELECTIONS AND SAID THAT POLLS INDICATE THAT EACH
PARTY FAMILY IS PREDICTED TO RECEIVE ROUGHLY THE SAME NUMBER
OF VOTES. IF EACH RECEIVES BETWEEN 40 AND 44 SEATS,
VERHOFSTADT THOUGHT A SIX-PARTY COALITION WOULD BE LIKELY,
BUT IF ONE PARTY FAMILY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER SEATS,
THE OTHER FOUR PARTIES WOULD LIKELY JOIN FORCES. HE
PREDICTED THAT IT WOULD TAKE A LONG TIME TO FORM A NEW
GOVERNMENT, VERY LIKELY NOT TO BE AGREED UNTIL LATE SUMMER.

--------------
CLIMATE CHANGE
--------------


5. (SBU) AMBASSADOR RAISED THE PRESIDENT'S CLIMATE CHANGE
INITIATIVE WITH THE PM, EMPHASIZING U.S. LEADERSHIP IN
SEEKING A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES AND
REVIEWING THE LOW LEVEL OF U.S. EMISSIONS DESPITE STRONG
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POPULATION INCREASE. VERHOFSTADT, WHO
HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN BRIEFED ON THE INITIATIVE, NOTED THAT THE
PRESIDENT'S INITIATIVE PUT AN END TO DISCUSSION OF WHETHER
CLIMATE CHANGE WAS HAPPENING SO THE WORLD COMMUNITY COULD
FOCUS ON SOLUTIONS. HE NOTED BELGIUM'S PLANS TO BUILD
200-300 MEGAWATT WIND GENERATION PARKS. IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMBASSADOR'S QUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR ENERGY, VERHOFSTADT SAID
THAT HE WOULD (IF HE WERE TO BE IN OFFICE) CLOSE THE OLDEST
AND SMALLEST OF BELGIUM'S REACTORS, AND REPLACE THEM BY
FOURTH GENERATION REACTORS, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE 200 TIMES
LESS RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND 3000 TIMES LESS RADIOACTIVITY THAN
CURRENT GENERATION REACTORS.

--------------
UN ISSUES
--------------


6. (SBU) AMBASSADOR FOX THANKED THE PM FOR BELGIUM'S STAUNCH
SUPPORT ON THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS ISSUE AND FOR ITS
CHAIRING THE IRAN SANCTIONS COMMITTEE IN THE UNSC. HE NOTED
THE CLOSE WORKING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BELGIUM AND THE U.S.
IN THE UNSC AND ASKED THE PM'S VIEWS ON THE KOSOVO
RESOLUTION. THE PM SAID HE HAD NO CLEAR IDEA IF RUSSIA WOULD

ABSTAIN OR VETO THE RESOLUTION, HOPING THAT PRESIDENT BUSH'S
MEETING WITH PUTIN COULD HELP PUSH THEM IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION.

---
DRC
---


7. (C) IN RESPONSE TO A QUESTION ON THE DRC, THE PM SAID THAT
HE HOPED THAT KABILA COULD OPEN TALKS TO RECONSIDER OLD
CONTRACTS WHERE THE DRC'S NATURAL RESOURCES WERE BEING
EXPLOITED WITHOUT ANY BENEFIT TO THE GOVERNMENT OR THE
CONGOLESE. THE PM RAISED THE ISSUE OF ESTABLISHING AN
INFORMAL INTERNATIONAL BODY TO ADVISE KABILA ON ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES. HOORNAERT NOTED THAT THE MONUC EXTENSION
RESOLUTION APPROVED THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SUCH A MECHANISM,
BUT IT HAD YET TO COME INTO BEING.

--------------
KONY AND THE LORD'S RESISTANCE ARMY
--------------


8. (U) PM VERHOFSTADT TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE WANTED TO
RAISE AN ISSUE OF GRAVE PERSONAL CONCERN TO HIM, AN ISSUE HE
HAS RAISED WITH DR. RICE, PRESIDENT SARKOZY, AND PM BLAIR
AMONG OTHERS. JOSEPH KONY, LEADER OF THE LORD'S RESISTANCE
ARMY, WHO HAS DEVASTATED UGANDA AND SUDAN WITH HIS CHILD
SOLDIERS, WAS NOW IN THE EASTERN CONGO AND WAS TRYING TO FORM
A NEW ARMY IN THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC. THE PM WANTS TO
FIND SOME WAY TO BRING KONY TO TRIAL, NOTING THAT THIS WOULD
BE AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE TO OTHER AFRICAN WARLORDS THAT
IMPUNITY WOULD NOT BE TOLERATED. HE DID NOT CARE WHETHER IT
WAS A NATIONAL, A MULTINATIONAL OR AN INTERNATIONAL COURT.
THE POINT WAS TO HAVE A TRIAL. DCM SUGGESTED THAT THE
BELGIANS MIGHT WANT TO START WITH THE SOUTH AFRICANS AND TRY
TO BUILD SUPPORT IN THE UNSC FOR A UNSC PRESIDENTIAL
STATEMENT SUPPORTING A TRIAL MECHANISM. (NOTE: THE PM'S
INTEREST IN THIS SUBJECT HAS BEEN SPARKED BY A KAMPALA-BASED
BELGIAN JOURNALIST WHO RECENTLY WROTE A BOOK ABOUT KONY AND
HIS CRIMES. THE BOOK HAS BECOME A MUCH TALKED ABOUT SUBJECT
IN BRUSSELS. END NOTE)

--------------
AFGHANISTAN
--------------


9. (C) AMBASSADOR THANKED THE PM FOR BELGIUM'S MILITARY
PARTICIPATION IN ISAF SINCE THE BEGINNING, BUT NOTED SACEUR'S
REQUEST FOR BELGIUM TO CONTINUE ITS PRESENCE IN KABUL AND TO
PROVIDE OMLT AND CST-A TEAMS AND TO FILL THE VACANT BILLETS
IN ISAF HEADQUARTERS. VERHOFSTADT SAID THAT BELGIUM WOULD
NOT ONLY STAY AT THE KABUL AIRPORT, BUT WOULD INCREASE ITS
PRESENCE THERE BY 40 TROOPS IN OCTOBER AND WOULD TAKE OVER
COMMAND OF THE DETACHMENT. THE TRAINING TEAMS, HOWEVER, WERE
A "NEW" COMMITMENT. DCM ASKED IF THIS MEANT THAT THE
CARETAKER GOVERNMENT COULD NOT MAKE THIS DECISION. NOTING
SINCE BELGIUM WAS ALREADY COMMITTED TO ISAF, HE ASKED IF THIS
COULD THIS NOT BE CONSIDERED A DECISION THAT COULD BE MADE
BEFORE THE NEW GOVERNMENT WERE FORMED. THE PM COMMITTED TO
REVIEW THIS WITH THE MINISTER OF DEFENSE AND GET BACK TO THE
AMBASSADOR.

--------------
IRAQ
--------------


10. (C) AMBASSADOR THANKED THE PM FOR BELGIUM'S
RECONSTRUCTION ASSISTANCE AND OTHER CIVILIAN SUPPORT TO IRAQ
AND ASKED IF BELGIUM COULD NOT DO MORE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE
AMBASSADOR ASKED WHEN BELGIUM WOULD COMPLETE RELIEF OF IRAQ'S
DEBT. THE PM NOTED THAT BELGIUM HAD FORGIVEN 2/3 OF THE
DEBT, BUT THAT WHILE THEY HAD COMMITTED TO FORGIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DEBT, FOR BUDGET REASONS IT WOULD NOT BE
DONE UNTIL 2007 OR 2008. THE AMBASSADOR PUSHED BACK,
SUGGESTING THAT AS THIS WAS A BOOKKEEPING ISSUE, NOT A CASH
FLOW ISSUE, BELGIUM SHOULD BE ABLE TO COMPLETE ITS DEBT
FORGIVENESS NOW, AS IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ON THE BUDGET
NEGOTIATIONS. PM SAID HE WOULD EXPLORE THIS WITH THE BUDGET
OFFICE AND GET BACK TO THE AMBASSADOR.

--------------
RUSSIA AND KOSOVO
--------------


11. (C) THE FM TOLD AMBASSADOR THAT HE EXPECTED CONTINUING
PROBLEMS WITH RUSSIA ON KOSOVO IN THE UNSC. RELATIONS

BETWEEN THE WEST AND RUSSIA WERECOMPLEX. FOR EXAMPLE,
RUSSIA WAS COOPERATINGON IRAN, BUT POSTURING OVER MISSILE
DEFENSE. BELGIAN PERMREP VERBECKE RECOMMENDED THAT IN
COORDINATION WITH US PERMREP KHALIZAD THEY PRESS RUSSIA TO
ABSTAIN ON THE KOSOVO RESOLUTION IN JUNE, BUT THE FM SAID HE
WAS NOT CONFIDENT OF A BREAKTHROUGH. DE GUCHT SAID THAT IF
IT WERE OPPORTUNE, HE WAS READY TO TRAVEL TO RUSSIA TO TALK
TO LAVROV, WITH WHOM HE HAS MET FREQUENTLY. IF THE RUSSIANS
VETO, THINGS IN KOSOVO WILL BE IN A BAD STATE -- THERE WILL
BE NO BASIS FOR THE EU MISSION AND NOT ALL OF THE EU MEMBERS
WILL RECOGNIZE A UNLATERAL DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE. IN
ANSWER TO A QUESTION FROM THE AMBASSADOR, DE GUCHT SAID THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME VIOLENCE AND ETHNIC CLEANSING, BUT SERBIA
WILL NOT ATTACK AND NATO TROOPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTAIN ANY
WIDE-SPREAD VIOLENCE.

--------------
ELECTIONS
--------------


12. (SBU) DE GUCHT, A FLEMISH LIBERAL (THE SAME PARTY AS THE
PM),SAID THAT THE OUTCOME OF BELGIAN ELECTIONS WAS UNCLEAR.
THERE MAY BE MONTHS OF NEGOTIATIONS TO FORM A GOVERNMENT,
CERTAINLY ONE WILL NOT BE AGREED UNTIL AUGUST. HIS PARTY'S
BEST HOPE WAS FOR THE LIBERALS AND CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS TO
FORM A COALITION, LEAVING THE SOCIALISTS IN OPPOSITION. BAD
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE WALLOON LIBERAL AND SOCIALIST LEADERS
WILL MAKE IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT
LIBERAL/SOCIALIST COALTION.

--------------
AFGHANISTAN
--------------


13. (C) AMBASSADOR RAISED THE ISSUE OF ADDITIONAL TROOPS FOR
AFGHANISTAN. THE FM ASSERTED THAT THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT
COULD NOT MAKE THIS DECISION; CONSTITUTIONALLY THIS IS OUT OF
BOUNDS UNTIL A NEW GOVERNMENT IS IN PLACE. DE GUCHT NOTED
THAT, PERSONALLY, HE SUPPORTED THE US REQUEST, BUT THE
GOVERNMENT COULD NOT MAKE SUCH A COMMITMENT NOW. BELGIUM
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ECONOMIC AND RECONSTRUCTION HELP AND
NOTED THAT VERY DAY TWO AGRICULTURAL AGREEMENTS TO SUPPORT
AFGHANISTAN HAD BEEN SIGNED. (NOTE: IN IMPLEMENTATION OF
BELGIUM'S THREE-YEAR, 30 MILLION DOLLAR ASSISTANCE
COMMITMENT. END NOTE)

--------------
CLIMATE CHANGE
--------------


14. (SBU) AMBASSADOR REVIEWED THE PRESIDENT'S CLIMATE CHANGE
INITIATIVE WITH THE FM IN THE SAME TERMS AS WITH THE PM. THE
FM CONSIDERED IT A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, BUT WAS
DISAPPOINTED THAT THE US WAS NOT WILLING TO AGREE TO AN
EMISSION CAP, NOTING THAT NEW EUROPEAN STATISTICS
DEMONSTRATED THAT BELGIUM WAS MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS ITS
KYOTO GOALS AND NOTED THE EU'S RECENT GOAL OF 20 PERCNET
REDUCTION IN EMISSIONS.
FOX
.