BELGIAN ELECTIONS: FAR RIGHT VLAAMS BELANG SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001672

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN ELECTIONS: FAR RIGHT VLAAMS BELANG SAYS
BEING NUMBER TWO IS ITS NUMBER ONE GOAL

REF: A. BRUSSELS 1576

B. BRUSSELS 1558

C. BRUSSELS 438

Classified By: POLCOUNS TED ANDREWS. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

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The Premier Opposition Party?
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1. (SBU) Fresh off a disappointing showing in the October 8,
2006, local Belgian elections, where it failed to achieve a
much sought after breakthrough in the larger cities of
Flanders, the far right, ultra-nationalist Vlaams Belang (VB)
finds itself pondering observations by political observers
that it may have peaked. The failure to capture the mayor's
seat in Antwerp last October, or to achieve a breakthrough on
the city council, combined with lost council seats in Ghent
and the failure to gain control of a single local governing
council, prompted some members to turn on the party
leadership and provoked anxiety and self-perusal within party
ranks. VB insiders insist these glitches were temporary,
however, and that the party is anticipating a strong enough
showing in the federal elections to emerge as Belgium's
premiere opposition party.


2. (C) VB insiders have sought to downplay the party's
internal conflict, where newer members especially seem to
have turned on the party leadership, whom they blame for
recruiting lackluster candidates in 2006 and internal
disorganization. A VB parliamentarian with whom embassy
maintains discreet contact told poloff the conflict was not
ideological, i.e., hardliners were not pitted against
moderates. Rather, he laid the blame on newer, less
disciplined members who lacked the traditions and loyalties
of those who had been with VB since its inception. He
expressed displeasure with the behavior of the newer members
("we don't like this approach, it demoralizes our voters; our
strength is to be unified to the outside world"). He hoped
the problems were over, but thought dissent would continue to
occur as the party grew, especially between the old guard and
the newer generation. In the meantime, "VB is not going to
implode." But, while there should be room for discussion,
differences should be kept within the party.


3. (C) He was mildly critical of Flemish parliamentarian
Marie-Rose Morel, one of the most important public critics of
VB who scored rather well in the October election and sought
to position herself as a potential party leader. Morel has
urged the VB leadership to adopt a softer party line that
would attract conservative voters otherwise scared off by the
party's image. He said, while Morel has a great future
inside VB, "she did not go through the desert, the way older
members did," bringing the party from 0.7 percent of the vote
to the present day average of around 25 percent. Party
leaders chose not to follow the "soft" line advocated by
Morel, but to "get back to basics." He also commented on the
VLD (Liberals) ejected maverick senator Jean-Marie Dedecker,
who, aware of his popularity, had asked too high a price to
join VB ranks: i.e., a starring role in the June election.
Dedecker has since formed his own party, "List Dedecker,"
which our contact called "VB light." He expressed disdain
for a party created around one individual, but also feared
that Dedecker might attract potential VB voters and
negatively affect the party's growth. (Comment: This is not
an unreasonable fear, according to many observers here. The
Prime Minister's Flemish Liberals and the opposition
Christian Democrats are all hopeful that Dedecker's group
will help split the far right electorate. End comment.)


4. (C) Meanwhile, the VB election campaign is in high gear.
A VB campaign brochure depicts the three traditional parties
(Liberals, Socialists, and Christian Democrats),as deaf,
dumb, and blind chimpanzees and VB as "the real alternative."
Our VB contact said the party, of course, wants to win the
June 10 election, but, more realistically, VB was setting its
sights on Flemish parliamentary elections in 2009. The goal
was to emerge as the premier opposition party in 2007, which
would give VB a prominent platform for 2009, outside of a
coalition government. (VB continues to try to break out of
the "cordon sanitaire" imposed by the more traditional
parties to ostracize VB by preventing it from joining any
coalition government at any level.) VB anticipates getting
at least eighteen percent of the vote in June ("if we don't
get eighteen percent, it will be a defeat"),but really wants
a minimum of twenty four percent.

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Leterme's Hands Tied By State Reform
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5. (C) VB is keeping its eye on the candidacy of Yves
Leterme, the Flemish Christian Democratic (CD&V) opposition

leader who is vying to be Prime Minister. (Our contact had
little to say about the prospects for outgoing PM Guy
Verhofstadt to retain the job.) VB leaders see a potential
government crisis looming if current opposition leader CD&V
gets enough votes to be part of a government coalition.
Leterme is thought to be hampered by the need to follow
through on his state reform promise ("or he will lose face"),
a promise to which his election partner, the New Flemish
Alliance (NVA) will hold him. VB sees the Francophone
Socialists, a potential partner in a government coalition, as
the problem with this plan because "no French-speaking party
wants state reform." VB, which supports Flemish
independence, opposes state reform as "just a way to keep
Belgium alive." (Note: state reform generally means
devolving more powers to the regions, particularly in the
field of employment policy and, possibly, the financing of
social security. End note)


6. (C) Comment: While the Vlaams Belang appears less
fearsome this election year because of its disappointing
showing in 2006 local elections and its publically aired
internal disputes, it is still a force to be reckoned with on
the Belgian political scene. Its anti-immigrant, nationalist
message continues to appeal to a diverse group of voters. If
VB succeeds in its main goal for June elections, i.e.,
becoming Belgium's major opposition party, it will have a
bigger, more visible platform to attract more voters and
position itself well for 2009 Flemish parliamentary
elections.

FOX