NEGROPONTE DISCUSSES SUDAN SANCTIONS, SOMALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001664

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID EUN AF
SUBJECT: NEGROPONTE DISCUSSES SUDAN SANCTIONS, SOMALIA
PEACEKEEPING WITH EU

Classified By: Pol MinCouns Laurence Wohlers, reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: In a May 17 meeting, Deputy Secretary John D.
Negroponte heard from two EU's senior experts on Africa
policy that discussions of imposing European sanctions on
Sudan are stalled. The EU is looking to the UN to take the
lead on multilateral sanctions, but says the UN Security
Council needs more time to work toward consensus. The EU
officials welcomed additional U.S. pressure on Bashir but
worried about the U.S. proceeding with sanctions of its own,
saying it would make China and Arab League countries less
likely to support multilateral sanctions. On Somalia, EU
officials were optimistic that, despite serious obstacles,
President Yusuf is moving in the right direction and has the
best interests of a peaceful, prosperous Somalia at heart.
EU officials hope to see AMISOM peacekeepers replace
Ethiopian troops soon, but note that lack of donor funding
has slowed the deployment of new AMISOM forces. End Summary.

EU Favors Slow Approach on Sanctions
--------------


2. (C) Deputy Secretary Negroponte, accompanied by Ambassador
Gray, met in Brussels with Koen Vervaeke, Head of the Africa
Policy Unit at the European Council Secretariat, and
Jean-Christophe Belliard, Special Emissary on Somalia, to
discuss mutual concerns in the Horn of Africa. Vervaeke told
the Deputy Secretary that the U.S. and EU are largely on the
same page regarding policy on Sudan and Somalia. Belliard
said external pressure, particularly from the U.S., is very
effective in forcing change on a Sudanese regime that is
isolated from its own people, and he said such pressure was
the key to reaching a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in
South Sudan. The EU, he said, supports sanctions, but in a
politically inclusive way that involves a unified UN approach
and doesn't just pit the West against Sudan. Vervaeke
described the discussion on EU sanctions as "frozen," with
many of the 27 member states preferring, for the moment, to
press diplomatic efforts in New York.


3. (C) Responding to the Deputy Secretary's statement that
the U.S. is likely to impose sanctions soon, Belliard said
such a move could be counterproductive and could derail
consensus in the UN Security Council. Noting the cautions of
UNSYG Ban and African Union Commission Chairman Konare,
Belliard and Vervaeke said they favor giving the political
process more time. They said both China and the Arab League
states may be moving slowly toward support for sanctions, but
are not there yet. "It is important not to be impatient,"
Belliard said. He noted positively Saudi Arabia's initiative
in bringing Presidents Bashir and Deby together for talks,
saying normalization of relations between Sudan and Chad
could help bring peace to the region. He also praised the
current effort of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA)
to bring the dissident rebel groups together.


4. (C) Vervaeke agreed with the Deputy Secretary's
observation that President Bashir seems to be trying to
separate the issue of allowing a Heavy Support Package (HSP)
in Sudan from the issue of allowing a hybrid UN-AU force to
deploy, and both expressed concern about Konare's statements
to the EU that the international community should concentrate
on the HSP and worry about the hybrid force later. Belliard
noted that the issue of independence for Southern Sudan is
inextricably linked to progress in Darfur. Without
resolution of the Darfur crisis, Southern Sudan is likely to
vote for independence from the rest of the country, as it
will be allowed to do in 2011 under the CPA. Belliard said
the EU believes Khartoum would never allow independence for
the south, particularly given the location of oil reserves
there.

EU: Somalia Moving in Right Direction
--------------


5. (C) Belliard, who returned this week from a trip to Cairo,
Addis Ababa, and Nairobi, said his meetings with Somali TFG
President Yusuf and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
convinced him that both leaders want to do the right thing in
Somalia, but need continued pressure and support from the
international community. He said Ethiopia is looking for a
way out of Somalia and should leave soon, but that Mogadishu
would collapse if Ethiopian troops left today. The answer is
to get more AMISOM peacekeepers deployed to assist the 1,700
Ugandans currently there, and to train a new Somali army,
Belliard said. Nigeria and Burundi are prepared to send

BRUSSELS 00001664 002 OF 002


peacekeepers, but funding remains an obstacle. Vervaeke
noted that the EU's annual 100 million euro Africa Peace
Facility fund is depleted for this year. The UN is unlikely
to take over a peacekeeping operation in Somalia without a
political reconciliation process first, he said. Belliard
outlined EU hopes for the upcoming planned National
Reconciliation Conference, including agreement on a new
power-sharing formula, appointment of a new prime minister,
and a more representative Hawiye leadership. There is no
international consensus on Hawiye leaders in the government,
with Egypt supporting a role for Hassan Dahir Aweys, while
Meles, Yusuf, and Konare want Aweys excluded, Belliard said.


6. (U) Deputy Secretary Negroponte has cleared this message.
MCKINLEY
.