BELGIAN ELECTIONS PROSPECTIVE: UP FOR GRABS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001642

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN ELECTIONS PROSPECTIVE: UP FOR GRABS

REF: 2006 BRUSSELS 3681


1. (SBU) Summary: With the June 10 national elections fast
approaching, Belgium's political leaders are beginning to
focus on the nitty-gritty mathematical aspects of forming the
next governing coalition. Most observers believe there are
four possibilities -- continuation of the present Flemish and
Walloon Liberal/Socialist "purple" coalition; a similar
combination in which the two liberal partners are replaced by
the two Christian-Democrat parties; a Liberal, Socialist,
Christian Democrat, and Green coalition; or, least likely, a
combination in which the Socialists head the opposition. The
current partners appear to prefer carrying on with another
term of the present purple coalition. The continued weakness
in the polls of the Prime Minister's Flemish Liberals (Open
VLD) are making this appear increasingly unlikely, hence the
scramble to devise something different. End summary.


2. (U) Belgium's low key electoral campaign has yielded few
fireworks beyond a couple of waspish "Yes you did/No I did
not" exchanges between Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and his
principal rival, Flemish Minister-President Yves Leterme.
The real action is taking place off-stage as the parties
assess how they might, or might not, fit into the next
coalition. Having spoken to a broad range of senior party
insiders, we have discerned four basic models about what
might happen next. They are detailed in the following
paragraphs.

RENEWING THE CURRENT FORMULA
--------------


3. (U) The present governing coalition includes two liberal
parties, Verhofstadt's Open VLD and the Francophone MR led by
current Finance Minister Didier Reynders, and two socialist
parties, the Flemish SP.A and the Francophone PS.
Verhofstadt and his partners clearly would like to keep their
partnership intact, not least because doing so would provide
continuity and afford the smoothest transition after the
election. It is not impossible to imagine a return to this
purple coalition since, according to the last pre-campaign
polls, three of the four parties have solid numbers. That
said, the weakness of the fourth party -- Verhofstadt's Open
VLD, which has remained mired near the bottom of the polls
for over a year -- has prompted his partners to look at other
options. His Flemish supporters appear to believe that
Verhofstadt has made too many compromises on social issues
with the PS. His high energy level also overwhelms many
staid Flemings.

A CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC-SOCIALIST PARTNERSHIP
--------------


4. (U) If voters force the present coalition partners to
divorce, party leaders will look seriously to link up the two
Christian Democratic parties (CD&V on the Flemish side and
CdH on the Francophone side) with the two socialist parties.
Under this scenario, which one senior Francophone socialist
leader termed "the most comfortable and likely outcome,"
either Leterme or SP.A leader Johan Vande Lanotte would
become Prime Minister, with the two Francophone parties
taking command of other key ministries. There are at least
two complicating factors, including the chance that the PS
would become the largest single party in parliament, an
eventuality that would raise the question of whether a
Francophone (the linguistic minority in Belgium) could become
Prime Minister. The second complication would derive from
the difficult personal relationship between the two Christian
Democratic leaders, Leterme and Francophone Joelle Milquet.

LEAVING THE SOCIALISTS OUT (
--------------


5. (U) This is probably the least likely possibility, most
observers here believe. The two socialist parties together
may well form the largest single party "family," meaning they
could have the first chance to put a government together.
They could thus form such a large bloc that no coalition
would be possible without them. Similarly, the poor
relationship between other parties (and within some parties)
makes it all but certain that Belgium's government will
include socialists.


6. (SBU) Francophone Socialist leaders fear the electoral
consequences of a widening split within their ranks between a
majority faction centered around current party leader Elio Di
Rupo and an opposing van Cauwenberghe group led by the former
Walloon Minister-President. Corruption scandals involving
van Cauwenberghe's circle have created an opening for other
parties, notably the MR, and seriously diminished Di Rupo's
chances of becoming the first Francophone prime minister in
many years. If another corruption scandal becomes public

BRUSSELS 00001642 002 OF 002


between now and the election, the socialists could easily be
knocked off their perch as the largest single party family.

- AND LETTING THE GREENS IN
--------------

7. (SBU) Any revival in the electoral fortunes of the Prime
Minister's party will increase the chances of a coalition
including the two green parties, Ecolo in the Francophone
part of the country and Groen! in the Flemish speaking
section. Such a coalition also presupposes that the greens
succeed in taking votes away from the socialists. This would
be difficult, but not impossible. All parties are burnishing
their green credentials, and appear determined to steal as
many votes as possible from the greens.
IMBRIE
.