BOUCHER DISCUSSES CENTRAL ASIA WITH EU (CORRECTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRUSSELS 001596

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZK
SUBJECT: BOUCHER DISCUSSES CENTRAL ASIA WITH EU (CORRECTED
COPY)


Classified By: USEU Political Minister Counselor
Larry Wohlers for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 16, Assistant Secretary for South
and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher led the U.S.
delegation to the COEST (the EU's Eastern Europe and Central
Asia Working Party) troika on Central Asia. Throughout the
German EU presidency, the EU has expressed a growing interest
in Central Asia. During the troika, the EU stressed that it
is committed to the region for the long-term. Recapping the
Astana Ministerial the EU held with all five Central Asian
countries, EU interlocutors told Boucher that the Central
Asian states do not wish to be seen as a problem and
emphasized their ability to work with one another.
Discussions revealed the ongoing need to address issues of
corruption and democratic reform in the region, but also
revealed improvements, such as positive signals coming out of
Turkmenistan and regional economic integration in Tajikistan.
END SUMMARY.

Regional Issues: Central Asia: "We are not a problem."
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2. (C) Throughout the German EU presidency, the EU has
expressed a growing interest in Central Asia. The German
presidency is currently drafting a strategy paper on the
future of relations between Central Asia and the EU, which
will be finalized on or about June 21/22. German Special
Envoy for Commonwealth of Independent States countries
Hans-Dieter Lucas told Boucher the strategy would focus on
seven elements: 1.) a regular, structured dialogue at the
Minister and Foreign Minister-level; 2.) education (with an
emphasis on higher education and training); 3.) rule of law;
4.) human rights (the EU is striving to have a structured
human rights dialogue with each of the five countries); 5.)
economic development (with an emphasis on trade, investment,
and support for World Trade Organization accession); 6.)
energy (with an emphasis on developing a harmonized
regulatory framework, transport, and an enhanced energy
dialogue); and 7.) environmental and border issues, with an
emphasis on regional water management and domestic security
(including issues of drug trafficking, organized crime, and
illegal immigration). The report is currently being
discussed by the Member States' Political and Security
Committee (PSC).


3. (C) EU Special Representative for Central Asia Pierre
Morel told Boucher the Astana Ministerial was "very useful"
and would become a yearly event. The Central Asian states
sought to send the message that "we are not a problem,"
contrasting their successes with troubles in the Caucasus,
and emphasizing their willingness to work together. EU
interlocutors stressed that the EU is committed to Central
Asia for the long term. The European Commission has
allocated 750 million euros in assistance over the next seven
years, and the European Investment Bank will receive a
mandate for "soft lending" in the region to the tune of 400
million Euros. Boucher applauded the EU's financial
commitment and added that he hoped bilateral Member State
assistance would continue to expand as well.


4. (C) Building on the German presidency's momentum, Morel
said the Portuguese Ambassador in Russia would be Lisbon's
coordinator for Central Asia under the Portuguese presidency
and that good groundwork with the Portuguese and Slovenians
had begun. He also stressed the French presidency in 2008
would give Central Asia the same priority as the Germans.


5. (C) Speaking on Kazakhstan's World Trade Organization
accession progress, European Commission Head of Unit for
Southern Caucasus and Central Asia Victor Maldonado noted
that the EU was committed to helping Kazakhstan, but had not
yet finalized negotiations. Boucher added that the USG was
exploring whether it can use the Asian Development Bank's
Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation program and said
the Japanese will be in Washington in May for discussions on
Central Asia. Boucher invited the EU to participate in the
discussions with the Japanese.


6. (C) On Afghanistan, EU interlocutors reported the
Central Asians were fairly pessimistic. At the Ministerial,
the Central Asians stressed to the EU that they did not want
to be treated only in relation to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan,

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in particular, complained that it had been excluded from
coalition reconstruction tenders in Afghanistan. Boucher
mentioned Ambassador Neumann was going to Central Asia to
talk to leaders about their concerns. Boucher agreed to look
into the Kazakhs' concern, but said he was not aware of any
rule specifically excluding them from the tender process.


7. (C) Boucher also used the troika to brief EU
interlocutors on Assistant Secretary Sullivan, Deputy
Assistant Secretary Bryza, and Principal Deputy Assistant
Secretary Mann's trip to the region to discuss trans-Caspian

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gas. He also briefed them on progress on the Tajik-Afghan
bridge and the possibility of transporting electricity from
Tajikistan to Afghanistan.

Turkmenistan: Real opportunity for positive change
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8. (C) EU interlocutors shared Bocher's assessment that
there is a real opportunity for positive change in
Turkmenistan following the death of President Niyazov. All
parties were cautiously optimistic but noted that the country
would need to undertake major reforms, particularly in the
areas of freedom of the press and human rights. On energy,
the EU expressed interest in Turkmenistan's emerging
relationship with Azerbaijan and interest in Russia's
potential response to increased Chinese investment.


9. (C) Maldonado said the European Commission will send
four education experts to Turkmenistan in the next several
weeks and noted five million euros have been earmarked in
this year's budget for programs in good governance, economic
reform, and promotion of civil society. In May, the
Commission will send a technical mission on energy to the
region and hold a seminar to discuss issues including higher
education and the internet.

Uzbekistan: EU urges engagement
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10. (C) The German presidency appears to be pushing to
soften the EU's position on Uzbekistan. In the troika, Lucas
stressed the importance of continuing to work with
Uzbekistan, claiming, "if we just leave them alone because
they are a nasty country, they will continue to be a nasty
country." Lucas said Uzbekistan has agreed to a
"results-oriented" human rights dialogue with the EU. He
added that the Uzbeks had showed "growing confidence" during
EU-Uzbek talks on Andijon and claimed that overall EU experts
were "satisfied" with the two rounds of Andijon talks and did
not feel a third round was necessary. EU interlocutors told
Boucher the EU's decision May 14 regarding whether to ease
sanctions would take into account their assessment of both
the Andijon talks and the human rights dialogue. Morel was
slightly less optimistic than Lucas but suggested there were
signals that Uzbekistan might be ready to make some gestures
ahead of the sanctions decision. On the other hand,
Maldonado noted Uzbekistan's problems with its neighbors,
illustrated by the fact the Uzbeks have still not signed the
Action Plan with the EU. Maldonado added that the Commission
has reduced its assistance to Uzbekistan to three million
euros this year but is still having problems implementing the
programs that money is intended for. Boucher strongly urged
interlocutors to base their decision regarding sanctions on
real progress by the Uzbeks, rather than just talk.

Kazakhstan: "Anchor of stability"
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11. (C) Lucas agreed with Boucher's positive assessment of
Kazakhstan, describing it as the "anchor of stability" in the
region, in part, due to President Nazarbayev's leadership.
Lucas said a Kazakhstan Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe chairmanship would be useful for the
Organization's role in Central Asia and all former
post-Soviet countries, but stressed that the EU always tells
Kazakhstan they must make their case for chairmanship through
actions. On human rights, EU interlocutors noted Kazakhstan
is "not a paradise."


12. (C) The Commission has earmarked 12 million euros/year
for the next seven years in assistance for Kazakhstan.
Commission assistance will focus on economic reform, with an
emphasis on the energy sector. Morel noted that Kazakhstan

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was eager to move away from assistance and into "partnership"
programs instead, which while positive for the EU's budget
would require careful political management. Interlocutors
also told Boucher that while Kazakhstan welcomes Chinese
investment, it is wary of Chinese immigration as a result.

Kyrgyz Republic: Deteriorating political situation and
creeping "Islamization" worry EU
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13. (C) Lucas and Morel expressed concern that if the
political situation continues to deteriorate in Kyrgyzstan,
others in the region may draw the conclusion that the closer
a country moves toward democracy, the more unstable it
becomes. Morel told Boucher he met with President Kurmanbek
Bakiyev in mid-March, and that Bakiyev seemed fairly pleased
with himself for having outplayed the opposition. Morel
sensed that there was a credible growing opposition movement
led by former Prime Minister Kulov, but that Kulov was more
interested in overruling Bakiyev than he was in leading the
charge for constitutional change. Pushing Kulov forward,
Morel said, is former Interior Minister Omurbek Suvanaliyev.
According to Morel, Suvanaliyev recently claimed he could
influence 40 percent of the country's secret police forces.
Morel expressed concern that Suvanaliyev and Kulov have
strong ties to Moscow and had made several secret trips.
Morel said the opposition was dismissing Bakiyev's
appointment of opposition leader Almaz Atambayev to the role
of Prime Minister as a "pawn." Boucher stressed the need for
a coordinated message pressing Kyrgyzstan to settle down (not
exploiting the current uncertainty for short term gain),to
revise the constitution, and to move on.


14. (C) Although the Parliament is largely outdated, Morel
conceded that at least there is one in place. Morel
expressed deep concern over the "creeping Islamization
through social pressure," noting that women were being paid
to wear the hijab and citing the recently proposed
legislation legalizing polygamy. Bakiyev joked about the
proposed legislation, but did nothing to block it. The
legislation was later blocked by the Parliament.


15. (C) On assistance, Maldonado told Boucher there would
be an 80 percent increase in assistance, totaling 40 million
euros a year. Commission assistance will focus on rural
development, the social sector, energy, and political
infrastructure and transparency. Boucher briefed EU
interlocutors on our progress preparing a Millennium
Challenge Account threshold program for the country.


16. (C) On hydro power, EU interlocutors shared Boucher's
assessment that the Kyrgyz do not have a plan and expressed
doubt that the project might become a "white elephant."
Boucher stressed the need for the Kyrgyz to reform the energy
sector first.

Tajikistan: Cautiously optimistic
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17. (C) EU interlocutors generally shared Boucher's
assessment and were cautiously optimistic about Tajikistan,
but agreed that issues of democratic reform and corruption
continue to plague the country. Lucas relayed that the
Tajiks are nervous about political idealization from
Afghanistan. Lucas also expressed concern over drug
trafficking. Lucas said that border control and drug
trafficking would be "stepped up" in the new EU strategic
framework, with an emphasis on better coordination with all
regional players, including Russia. Maldonado told Boucher
there would be a 14-15 million euro increase in the regional
border management program.


18. (C) The Commission told Boucher it would spend 17
million euros per year on rural development, agriculture,
land reform, and public finance management (linked with an
anti-corruption campaign) during the next programming period.
Two Commission programs were closed, however, due to
corruption.


19. (C) Lucas agreed with Boucher that the lack of
democratic reform continues to be a problem. EU
interlocutors stressed the need to make clear to the Tajiks
that the OSCE must be allowed to do its job, and said the
litmus test for democratic reform would be the state of

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non-governmental organizations. Nonetheless, Lucas said that
Tajikistan seems to be moving in the right direction and
appears to maintain a lively civil society.


20. (C) Morel commented that President Rakhmon seemed to be
confident and in good shape, but that his presidency was not
necessarily leading to the desired democratic reform. Morel
said he was impressed with a recent meeting with Moheyuddin
Kabiri and that Kabiri was focused on doing everything
possible to be successful in the next parliamentary
elections. Morel commented that while Kabiri plays a
moderate, "nice guy," he continues to maintain a link with
the "tougher parts" of the Islamic Renaissance Party.


21. (C) Lucas noted with interest the increased role of
China in Tajikistan, and growing apprehension from Moscow
that it was losing influence.

Future U.S.-EU discussions: Islamic tendencies in region?
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22. (C) Consistent with concerns raised in COEST Troika
discussions on the South Caucasus and Black Sea region, the
EU requested that Islamic tendencies in the region be added
to the next COEST Central Asia agenda. Boucher said he would
first want to discuss the issue with USG experts.


23. (U) This cable has been cleared by the Bureau of South
and Central Asian Affairs.

McKinley
.