BELGIUM'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 001576

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: BELGIUM'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN

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A Flash In the Pan
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1. (U) Belgian electoral campaigns are short affairs,
lasting little more than a month, with important
decisions having been made long before the electorate is
called to the polls. At this point, the parties have
completed their candidate tickets, which translates into
a guaranteed seat in the new Parliament for most
parliamentarians standing for re-election. The upcoming
election is really about the swing seats ? those
positions opened by departing MPs. With the outcome of
the election unpredictable, and because Belgian politics
features many small parties due to ideology and
linguistic divisions, a few seats shifting from one party
to another can have far reaching effects.

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Five Contenders for the Highest Office
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2. (U) The political parties have completed their policy
platforms, with few themes and divisive issues to impact
the campaign. Party leaders know only too well that
unrelated events, more than issues, can have a dramatic
impact on the final tally. (In 1999 a food poisoning
incident directly contributed to the fall of then Prime
Minister Jean-Luc Dehaene, a Flemish Christian Democrat.)
The present campaign may be short on themes, but it is
not short on personalities. For the first time in
election history, five politicians are openly vying for
Prime Minister: the outgoing PM Guy Verhofstadt, the
Socialist leaders Johan Vande Lanotte (SP.A) and Elio Di
Rupo (PS) respectively from the Flemish and Francophone
sides, the Francophone Liberal (MR) leader Didier
Reynders, and the Flemish Christian Democratic (CD&V)
opposition leader Yves Leterme.

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Socialist-Liberal Blues
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3. (SBU) The field of contenders is packed because there
is a general "purple blues." After eight years in power
the Liberal-Socialist coalition (hence the blue and red
mix) has lost much of its drive and appeal. Socialist
and Liberals leaders, while standing by what they have
achieved over the past eight years, argue that the
upcoming election is not about continuing the current
coalition. But there is little doubt that if they
command a majority in both houses of parliament,
Socialists and Liberals will continue the purple
coalition for another four years. And if needed, they
may also seek the support of the two Green parties, the
Flemish Groen! and Francophone ECOLO, harking back to the
composition of PM Verhofstadt?s first cabinet.

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Reynders v. Di Rupo
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4. (SBU) Another main feature of the present campaign is
the bitter confrontation between Di Rupo and Reynders.
The Francophone Liberals (MR) of Vice Premier Didier
Reynders remain traumatized by the change in coalition
following the 2004 regional elections, when Di Rupo
dropped the MR to form a Walloon regional coalition
government with the Francophone Christian Democrats (CDH)
of Joelle Milquet. Perceiving now that Socialist and
Christian Democrats are too close for comfort (and
mindful that previous coalitions linked Liberals and
Christian Democrats),Reynders has started attacking Di
Rupo, and the confrontation has already deteriorated to
the point that two are now insulting each other. Di Rupo
is irked by the role MR politicians have played in
unearthing the scandals involving local Socialist
officials, especially in Di Rupo's own Hainaut Province.
Moreover, Reynders continues to criticize PS Justice
Minister Laurette Onkelinx, claiming her tenure as
Justice Minister has been a failure. Philippe Moureaux,
the Brussels-based number two in the PS, has already
publicly pleaded for a Socialist-Christian Democratic
coalition. This has resulted in some MR leaders arguing
the case of a coalition of Liberals, Christian Democrats
and Greens to oust the PS from the federal government.
However, many observers doubt this is a workable
scenario.


5. (SBU) CDH and Ecolo performed poorly in the 2003
general elections, and have every reason to believe they
will pick up votes. Both parties try to stay out of the
fray, hoping that once the election is over they will
join the federal government.

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The Battle for the Highest Office
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6. (SBU) Flanders will be the scene of a direct
confrontation between three prime ministerial hopefuls:
the incumbent Verhofstadt, Socialist party president
Johan Vande Lanotte, and Flemish Minister-President Yves
Leterme for the CD&V. At the outset of the campaign
Verhofstadt argued that constitutional reform was not a
priority for the voters. Aware that his party is not
performing well in the polls, he has changed his mind,
arguing that the next cabinet should be composed of the
three traditional families (Liberals, Socialists, and
Christian Democrats),who would command enough votes in
Parliament to amend the constitution. As one commentator
put it, Verhofstadt "tries to lie in the middle of the
bed," casting himself in the role of the only Belgian
statesman capable of bringing Flemish and Francophone
parties together. Generally, no single Belgian party
scores, on average, more than 26 percent of the vote in
its respective linguistic group, thus coalition building
is the only way into government. Verhofstadt's Flemish
challengers Leterme and Vande Lanotte are both pleading
for devolving additional economic and social competencies
to the regional governments, but are keeping all options
open as to the make-up of the future coalition.
Belgium's political history shows that a "grand
coalition" of six parties is not necessary to amend the
country's institutional fabric, as on several occasion
this has been achieved with the help of opposition
parties.

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Verhofstadt's Record
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7. (U) Unemployment remains the top economic issue.
"Open VLD" (Flemish Liberal) Party President Bart Somers
stresses confidence in the future and his party is
promising another 200,000 new jobs, to be generated
through government measures. SP.A leader Vande Lanotte
has added an additional 60,000 jobs to this target. In
Wallonia, the PS has once again positioned itself as the
guardian of the welfare system, promising entitlements
will remain out of harm's way and voicing the intention
to carve out room for additional welfare outlays. The PS
wants health care spending to increase at a steady 4.5
percent annual real growth rate.


8. (U) Another major economic issue is building a war
chest to deal with the cost of a rapidly aging
population. The outgoing government has generated
awareness of the issue and has decided on a few rather
symbolic measures. All parties know that, henceforth,
more belt-tightening will be needed. Afraid of doomsday
messages that might upset the electorate, the governing
parties bank on the traditional (if unproven) assumption
of sustained economic growth to deal with the aging
issue. The promise to cut taxes, on which Verhofstadt?s
Open VLD built its 1999 and 2003 successes, has lost much
of its lure. As the return for the taxpayer has been
rather disappointing, the issue is featured less
prominently in the present campaign.

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The Al Gore Effect
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9. (U) Former Vice-President Al Gore has also had a major
impact on Belgium's election campaign. The environment
buzz generated by his motion picture has the two Green
parties feeling vindicated and showing growing
confidence. On both sides of the linguistic border, but
particularly in Flanders, Socialists and Greens are
locked in a head-on confrontation vying for the
environment-conscious voter. The two Green parties have
produced very radical platforms which will be hard to
reconcile with those submitted by the traditional
parties. However, the misadventure of the Greens in
France may have a sobering effect on Belgian Green
dreams.

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Vlaams Belang
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10. (SBU) In stark contrast with earlier elections, there
is less fear of another Vlaams Belang (Belgium's ultra-
nationalist party) onslaught in Flanders. The 2006
municipal elections were a disappointment for the Flemish
far right and, since October 2006, the Vlaams Belang has
been undergoing its own internal conflicts, with
officials defecting and newer members challenging the old
guard. In the upcoming election, the party will be
directly challenged by maverick Senator Jean-Marie
Dedecker, who was evicted from the Open VLD ranks. He
has the potential of inflicting some damage on the Vlaams
Belang, but the VB was never likely to be invited to join
any coalition.

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And Finally . . .
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11. (SBU) True to form, Belgium's position in the world
is not an issue in this campaign. Defense Minister Andre
Flahaut (PS) has over the years increasingly used the
forces as a private army for his personal glory, and this
has greatly upset Flemish majority and opposition
parties. SP.A leader Vande Lanotte has already warned
that there is room to further cut defense outlays, and
the idea has not been turned down off-hand by the other
party leaders.


12. (SBU) Flemish Minister-President Yves Leterme has
announced his candidacy. This was a turning point in the
campaign, as from that moment on the election was a
direct confrontation between Prime Minister Verhofstadt,
seeking a third term, and his Christian Democratic
challenger, who will seek to re-position his party in
the middle of the political field, the pivotal position
it lost to the Open VLD back in 1999.
IMBRIE