BELGIUM'S 2007 ELECTION ? WHERE THE PARTIES

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 001558

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BE
SUBJECT: BELGIUM'S 2007 ELECTION ? WHERE THE PARTIES
STAND ON FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES


Foreign Affairs Are No Election Affair
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1. (U) In 1983 some 300,000 people marched through the
streets of Brussels to protest the deployment American
cruise missiles in Belgium. It was the largest protest
registered since World War II, and almost brought down
government of Wilfred Martens. Despite predictions
that the issue would have an impact on the 1985 general
elections, the prognosticators were proven wrong.
Martens, a Flemish Christian Democrat (CD&V ? Christian
Democratic and Flemish),consolidated his position with
a solid victory. Every federal election since has
demonstrated the point that foreign affairs and
security issues play only a limited direct role.


2. (U) The same situation exists in the post-election
government formation period. With foreign affairs and
defense policy discussions generally taking place at
the very end of the formation talks, the parties
generally are ready to jettison deeply held convictions
to strike a deal and be sworn in by the King. The
tradition of compromise is particularly true on the
left, where Belgium's socialist foreign ministers have
regularly shown themselves ready to break with party
orthodoxy on even the most controversial of issues,
including NATO's cruise missile dual-track decision of
1979, the cruise missile deployment of 1985, the 1990
Gulf War, and the current conflict in Iraq.

A Consensus Builder
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3. (U) Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht (Open VLD ? the
Flemish Liberal party) is the primary reason why 2007
will be no exception to the longstanding tradition of
low public interest in foreign affairs. Since taking
office in 2004, De Gucht has worked assiduously to
lower the temperatures that rose during the tenure of
his predecessor Louis Michel, a Francophone Liberal
(MR),who liked hard talking and generating
controversy. De Gucht has managed to create a
consensus on most issues within the current four-party
coalition of Liberals and Socialists. Even some
opposition leaders have acknowledged publicly that they
have no quarrel with the way De Gucht has handled his
assignment.

The Great Flahaut Show
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4. (SBU) There is, however, much less consensus
regarding the role of Defense Minister Andre Flahaut.
A Francophone socialist (PS ? Socialist Party),Flahaut
is a perennial bogeyman for many, notably in the
Flemish press and in the CD&V. The verbal
confrontations in Parliament between Flahaut and the
opposition CD&V floor leader were among the rare
moments of parliamentary fireworks during the past four
years.


5. (SBU) Flahaut has held the defense portfolio for
eight years, much longer than any of his predecessors.
And he has proven to be a man with a mission. Since
taking office, Flahaut has set himself the goal of
reducing the armed forces from an initial level of
40,000 to 27,000 by the year 2016. While there is a
wide consensus in Belgium that the forces should
concentrate on peacekeeping, Flahaut has focused on the
humanitarian aspect of peacekeeping. Because of this
emphasis on humanitarian work, Flahaut and his generals
have opted to purchase light equipment, a decision that
renders peacekeeping in high-risk areas increasingly
less feasible. Moreover, because of financial and
material restrictions, Belgium finds it difficult to
send more than 1,000 troops on overseas operations at
any given time.

Future Implications
--------------


6. (SBU) Belgium's defense budget cuts are a clear
reflection of the power of the two Socialist Parties,
the PS on the French side and the SP.A (i.e., the

Flemish Socialists) on the Flemish side. SP.A Party
President Johan Vande Lanotte has already opined that
there is room for further reductions in defense
outlays. He even has stated that in an ideal world the
development assistance budget should be bigger than the
defense budget. The Flemish Socialist leader also
strongly opposes most out-of-area operations at NATO
(Afghanistan is the exception) and, absent specific UN
endorsement, Belgian involvement in the broader war on
terrorism. The party is once more giving public
support to demands for the removal of all U.S. tactical
nuclear weapons from Europe and, in a bid to gain votes
from Belgium's powerful peace movement, was a vocal
backer of legislation to ban submunitions.

The European Subterfuge
--------------


7. (U) Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD) has
traveled Europe pleading for a "European Defense
alternative." (Verhofstadt uses the phrase elastically
to cover, depending on the occasion, everything from
Eurocorps, to European-oriented procurement, to a more
formal European armed force.) In this, he is
reflecting a broad consensus among all Belgian
political parties that Europe must place a higher
priority on development of its own capabilities in
everything from defense policymaking, to procurement,
and even the establishment of an actual European armed
force. (It is unclear how long this consensus would
last if the parties were asked to respond to a concrete
proposal.) Verhofstadt?s Open VLD is willing to commit
more resources to a slimmer and better equipped force,
a view shared by the Christian Democrats on both sides
of the linguistic border. There also is a consensus
among the political parties on NATO being built on
distinctive American and European pillars, and on NATO-
led peacekeeping missions taking place under the United
Nations umbrella.

The Bonus
--------------


8. (U) Having been Prime Minister for eight years,
Verhofstadt is attempting during the current electoral
campaign to portray himself as a European statesman
capable of putting the European Project back on the
rails. He and his party are now pleading for an
energetic attempt to salvage the concept of a federal
Europe, with a European foreign minister, armed force,
and qualified majority decision making. The Belgians
have made clear they ultimately will follow whatever
version of the constitutional treaty the Germans are
able to fashion before the end of their Presidency in
June, even as they push for Chancellor Merkel to go
farther and faster. With small variations in tone and
on immediate priorities, the other parties remain
committed to a federal Europe, to support for EU
expansion into the Balkans, and to gradual progress
toward Turkish accession.

Chained to Congo and to Development Assistance
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9. (U) For all the energy and revenue Belgium has spent
on Congo, the election manifestoes are rather brief on
the subject. Politicians know that despite the
persistence of sentimental bonds, the Belgian public
views Congo as a lost cause. Despite this widely held
belief, the Flemish and Francophone approaches to the
issue differ markedly. Foreign Minister De Gucht, a
Flemish speaker, has frequently delivered blunt
lectures to Congolese leaders on their failings.
However, Defense Minister Flahaut, a Francophone, has
sought to charm them with kind words. Only the
Francophone parties plead for intensifying Belgium?s
efforts in the Great Lakes region. The Francophone
Liberals in the MR even believe Belgium should find the
means to upgrade Belgium?s role within MONUC.


10. (U) Most of the party manifestoes promise also for
the umpteenth time to upgrade development assistance to
0.7 percent of GDP, and to spread the development
effort more evenly over aid-recipient countries.

Similar promises ? and similar failure to achieve much
? have preceded and followed earlier elections.

Lofty Ideals
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11. (U) The two Green parties traditionally have
radical foreign affairs platforms, invariably critical
of the U.S. As during past elections, they plead for
reformation of the WTO, IMF, World Bank and UN, all
with the goal of giving more political clout within
these organizations to third world countries. The two
ecological parties state also that Belgium should take
a leading role in efforts to conclude an arms trade
treaty and an international treaty banning sub-
munitions. The Green parties oppose NATO's role in
operations outside the European theatre absent a UN
endorsement, and want the removal of nuclear weapons
from Europe. The Green Parties also support
renegotiation of the 1971 Line of Communications Treaty
signed between NATO and Belgium. The Greens favor
closer EU ties with Russia and the other states of the
former Soviet Union, while pleading for a fully
sovereign and independent Palestinian state. (While the
Palestinians can count on a certain residual sympathy
from many on the left, most parties are more
circumspect and the Prime Minister's Open VLD is a
strong supporter of Israel.)
FOX