A/S BOUCHER DISCUSSES SOUTH ASIA WITH THE EU

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN AF PK IN CE NP BG
SUBJECT: A/S BOUCHER DISCUSSES SOUTH ASIA WITH THE EU


Classified By: USEU Political Minister Counselor Larry Wohlers
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 17, Assistant Secretary for
South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher led the U.S.
South Asia delegation to the COASI (the EU's Asia-Oceania
Working Party) Troika on South Asia, discussing Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, U.S.-EU-India relations, and the
situations in Nepal and Bangladesh. On Afghanistan and
Pakistan, the EU remains a committed financial partner and is
preparing to make a significant contribution in the area of
policing and justice reform. EU interlocutors expressed
growing concern over the rapidly deteriorating situation in
Sri Lanka and ongoing concerns in the areas of human and
civil rights in Bangladesh. Finally, EU interlocutors
emphasized continued EU interest in the U.S.-India Civil
Nuclear Initiative and requested more information to help
inform EU opinion. END SUMMARY.

Afghanistan: EU focus on police and justice
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2. (C) German EU presidency rep and COASI Chair Andreas
Michaelis told Boucher that since October, the EU has been
drawing lessons from last year's spring insurgency and
focusing its efforts on questions of reconstruction and
helping the Karzai government become a legitimate actor. In
general, discussions at the COASI Troika revealed EU
interlocutors remain a committed financial partner.


3. (C) On the security situation, Michaelis said that while
some areas in the South and East are now neutral territory,
security concerns continue to focus on terrorism, with a new
emphasis on suicide bombings. Michaelis said he feared the
spring insurgency would bring a new wave of suicide attacks,
many of which looked to be Iraqi-inspired, and emphasized
that the increase in attacks continues to pose a challenge to
the legitimacy of the international presence in Afghanistan.
Assistant Secretary Boucher replied that we still face a
difficult enemy, but noted that we do so with more police, a
larger NATO presence, more electricity, and more money for
assistance.


4. (C) On Pakistan, Michaelis said President Musharraf
understood the message on cross-border incursions, but that
questions continue to loom within the EU whether Pakistan is
doing enough. Specifically, Michaelis questioned Musharraf's
ability to manage instability within the Tribal Areas and
expressed growing concern over the influence of radical
Islamic groups on civil society.


5. (C) U.S.-EU assessments on the Karzai government also
differed. Michaelis questioned whether the Karzai government
was exerting enough control but credited Afghans for their
willingness and desire to begin taking over ownership of
reconstruction and security.


6. (C) European Council rep Tomasz Kozlowski told Boucher
that a small Civilian Response Team would be deployed to
Kabul in May to facilitate the planning process for a
European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) mission in the
field of policing with linkages to the wider rule of law,
with the goal of being fully operational by June 15.
Kozlowski said the program would draw on at least 160 people,
including third country contributions from countries such as
Canada, Norway, Turkey, Switzerland, Ukraine, and New
Zealand, among others. The program will be headquartered in
Kabul and coordinate with Provincial Reconstruction Teams
(PRTs) in 19 provinces. Kozlowski added that 20 EU officers
will be placed in the International Police Coordination Board
and its Secretariat, and urged the U.S. to consider using the
Secretariat for coordination as well. Boucher agreed that

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the Board was a good place for coordination, but was not
prepared to give an official response on U.S. staffing.


7. (C) European Commission rep Helen Campbell told Boucher
the Commission's assistance for the 2006-2010 period will be
610 million Euros and a major new focus will be the justice
sector. The Commission plans to deploy justice experts to
the Ministry of Justice, Supreme Court, and the Attorney
General's office in June to compliment its aid program and
dovetail with the European Security and Defense Policy
mission. Boucher applauded the EU's emphasis and
contributions on policing and justice, and welcomed the June
deployment.


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8. (C) In addition to responding to concerns about
security, Boucher used the Troika to brief the EU on the
$11.8 billion supplemental request before Congress, which was
of great interest to EU interlocutors.


9. (C) On coordination, Assistant Secretary Boucher
emphasized that the United Nations remains the best
coordinator for reconstruction. Separately, he noted a
NATO/UN international fund for quick impact funds was under
consideration. EU interlocutors suggested that while they
would welcome an international quick impact fund, there is an
even greater need for the relevant mechanisms to implement
projects, citing too many hesitations from non-governmental
organizations. EU interlocutors noted difficulties finding
the right partners to implement certain programs, such as
road building, especially in light of the security situation.
Boucher acknowledged the EU's concerns and welcomed the
Commission's new funding to support small EU Member State
Provincial Reconstruction Teams.

Pakistan: Heightened EU concern over Islamist influence
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10. (C) Michaelis emphasized that Pakistan is very much on
the EU's radar, particularly given its connection to
Afghanistan and India's emergence as the "darling of the
international investor." In the last year, the EU has sought
to engage Pakistan in a deeper political and economic
relationship.


11. (C) On the subject of the Tribal Areas, interlocutors
were fairly pessimistic. Michaelis expressed skepticism over
absorption capacity and remarked that because of the security
situation, nongovernmental organizations were not able to
fully operate in the region. Michaelis acknowledged that
Musharraf must walk a tight rope between control and
stabilization, noting that the two concepts were not
synonymous. Boucher defended Musharraf stating that we don't
have three to five years to act and that the situation
required action now. Boucher told interlocutors that a large
presence of troops in the Tribal Areas simply wasn't enough
and that we were seeing more sophisticated political tactics
being adopted.


12. (C) Interlocutors expressed grave concern over the rise
of Islamist parties and the influence of radical Islamic
groups on civil society. Michaelis predicted a bumpy road
ahead, citing destabilizing elements in Karachi and the
madrassa in Islamabad. With regard to the elections,
Michaelis said it was not clear what strategy Musharraf would
adopt, and suggested Musharraf was too wrapped up in
day-to-day crisis management to have developed a clear
strategy. Boucher agreed that it was unlikely Musharraf had
a clear strategy but predicted that support would decline for
Islamist groups.


13. (C) Commission rep Campbell said that the EU was, in
principle, ready to observe elections. The Commission will
send an exploratory mission to the region. On assistance,
Campbell said that the Commission is quadrupling assistance
and has earmarked 200 million Euros for the 2007-2010 period.
Focus of Commission assistance will be: rural development;
border management in the Peshawar corridor; upgraded rule of
law and infrastructure in the North and Northeast; and
education, with a focus on moving beyond primary education to
include vocational training. Assistance will be implemented
by the United Nations' Development Programme.


14. (C) Campbell also told Boucher that the EU would hold
the first Joint Commission with Pakistan in more than ten
years. Discussions will focus on cooperation and trade, with
a goal of getting the dialogue back on track. While the
Pakistanis have expressed a strong interest in negotiating a
Free Trade Agreement with the EU, Campbell confirmed that the
EU was not prepared to move ahead on any such agreement at
this time.


15. (C) On the issue of refugees, Campbell noted that
Pakistan wants 200 million refugees to return home. Campbell
urged the U.S. and EU to send a coordinated message that we
will look at the situation, but that Pakistan needs to be
realistic. Boucher agreed in part, noting that we need to
ensure resettlement funds are available in Afghanistan as a
preliminary matter.


16. (C) Finally, concluding the discussion on Pakistan, EU

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interlocutors asked Boucher about the role of the Pakistani
Army. According to interlocutors, rumors persist that the
Army is losing its reputation as the most stable and
non-corrupt part of Pakistani society. Boucher replied that
there had been some grumblings from a few generals last fall
about Musharraf, but that seems to have quieted down.
Boucher told interlocutors that the Army was tired of being
responsible for everything and wants to go back to just being
in charge of the Army. Boucher remarked that this would be a
healthy move for Pakistan.

Sri Lanka: Nothing to celebrate
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17. (C) The EU is very concerned about the rapid decline in
democratic standards and the escalating violence that has
impeded humanitarian support and access in Sri Lanka
according to German EU presidency rep Bernd Borchard. The
Government of Sri Lanka has put nothing forward to
constructively address the humanitarian crisis -- as
exemplified by the 200,000 internally displaced persons, he
added. The EU is discussing the merits of sending a troika
mission to the country to assess the situation on-the-ground,
confirm support by the government and rebels for a peaceful
solution, and communicate a strong message on democracy,
human rights, and humanitarian aid and access.


18. (C) EU interlocutors did not believe the Sri Lankan
Government was sensitive to economic pressure and recommended
that Japan be convinced to be tougher in its bilateral
dealings with them. Michaelis said Sri Lankan Foreign
Minister Bogollagama was told the Government must engage in a
political vice military solution to the crisis when he
visited Berlin in February.


19. (C) Boucher said that a sound devolution of power
proposal was critical to a peaceful resoution of the crisis.
He urged continued presure on the Government and the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Boucher witnessed Sri
Lankan President Rajapaksa's outspoken remarks on human
rights at the recent South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation meeting in New Delhi, but said his actions do no
match his oratory. The Government would be wise to consider
attracting the Tamil community and bleeding support from the
Tamil Tigers.


20. (C) Human rights monitoring might be appropriate and
timely, suggested Commission rep Helen Campbell. Moderate
Tamils are encountering trouble expressing themselves openly.
Campbell raised the question whether it was now time for the
Sri Lanka Co-Chairs group to meet. Boucher agreed there was
a need for human rights monitoring, but said the most
appropriate mechanism must first be identified. He suggested
the Co-Chairs could perhaps come together informally in May
or June, but without producing another Co-Chairs statement.
Boucher added that increased security concerns in Sri Lanka
currently mitigated serious consideration of a Millennium
Challenge Account Threshold Program.


21. (C) Michaelis said he witnessed a Chinese "red carpet"
treatment for Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa in Beijing in
early March and queried whether the EU and U.S. should build
increased cooperation with more Asian countries, including
China, in order to press our policy approach. Boucher
responded that Chinese representatives would travel to
Washington in May or June to discuss South and Central Asia.

India: Active engagement on all sides
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22. (C) Both sides were optimistic about engagement with
India and hoped that greater economic activity would enhance
India's involvement in helping to resolve some of the more
difficult issues evident in South Asia.


23. (C) On U.S.-India civil nuclear discussions, Boucher
said the recent Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Capetown
appeared to show that U.S.-India civil nuclear discussions
were back on track. A bilateral agreement and Nuclear
Suppliers Group consent remain to be finalized if U.S.
Congressional consideration is anticipated prior to Fall

2007.


24. (C) Other areas in which the U.S. and India are engaged
include defense and global peace efforts as well as
education. Boucher outlined joint programs underway that

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might provide opportunities for India to support Afghan
educational efforts -- in addition to sending students to
India for study. Borchard observed that India appears to
want to engage more actively as shown by its constructive
engagement on Nepal and Sri Lanka.


25. (C) European Commission rep Jean-Christian Remond said
the EU wants to engage more with India on regional issues and
is increasing its activities, especially in the areas of
science, technology, and education. The EU supports
Millennium Development Goals through health and education, he
added. Negotiations may lead to a Free Trade Agreement with
India and the EU wants the Free Trade Agreement to lead to
World Trade Organization Plus, which would cover more than
the existing Doha Development Agenda. Increased EU-India
trade could positively result in drawing India further into
the global political arena, Remond predicted. Borchard added
that India will likely use the Free Trade Agreement for
internal political leverage.


26. (C) Energy security and climate change will be
priorities for EU-India Summit at the end of the year.
Remond asked whether India's position in the world energy
market would lead to harsh competition with China in world
markets. Boucher responded that there could be increased
India-China competition as occurred in some Central Asian
countries.


27. (C) When asked if the U.S. was considering a Free Trade
Agreement with India, Boucher responded that it was unlikely,
due, in part, to agricultural policy differences. The U.S.
will continue its CEO dialogue, which covers broad issues,
including travel visas. India is aware of what is needed for
responsible economic growth, but needs the political momentum
to yield economic reform. "They know what is wrong," Boucher
concluded.


28. (C) Council Rep Michael Swann asked whether growing
tensions in India's poor Muslim communities represent a trend
towards greater societal exclusion and if these tensions are
cause for concern in light of upcoming elections. Boucher
observed that India was very concerned about terrorism. We
should, he urged, work closely with them. Poverty
alleviation is an important issue, Boucher argued, and it is,
therefore, imperative that market and technological changes
and retail sector improvements take place in India in order
to help address the problem. Boucher concluded by stating
that the U.S.-India relationship is beyond
government-to-government, and business, academic, and
personal ties are quickly accelerating.

Bangladesh: Concerns remain
--------------


29. (C) Bangladesh's porous borders contribute to illicit
activities, and some members of the ruling party gain form
these activities, posited Borchard. In addition, the lack of
legitimacy of the caretaker government added to the country's
problems. An EU regional troika mission will be sent to
Bangladesh to urge the government to demonstrate greater
progress in the areas of human and civil rights. The timing
of elections remained outstanding, he said. Boucher recently
met with Bangladesh's Chief Advisor and communicated U.S.
support for a sound election and the critical need for
transparency. Boucher advised EU reps to be alert to any
signs the caretaker government is "settling in."


30. (C) Commission rep Campbell said the EU has suspended
its agreement with Bangladesh and wants to see a clear "road
map" on the political process. She noted the EU had heard
reports of 100,000 detainees and deaths under torture (Note:
Boucher later corrected these estimates). Campbell was
concerned that there existed a great deal of public and civil
society tolerance for the caretaker government. On a
positive note, she added she was impressed with on-the-ground
cooperation between the EU and U.S., which she characterized
as excellent.

Nepal: Getting better
--------------


31. (C) Assistant Secretary Boucher led the discussion by
noting the situation remains somewhat precarious, but there
is political movement forward. The Government has not
adequately addressed concerns by southerners and, while the
Maoists are participating in the political process, they have

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not fully converted to a political party and continue to use
extortion for political gain.


32. (C) Borchard said the EU was somewhat optimistic about
progress in Nepal and was not alarmed by postponement of the
elections, as it believed the Nepalese agenda was
"over-eager." A revised EU approach was not needed, although
continued observation of the Maoists and their actions was
required, he thought.


33. (C) The EU will likely send an electoral observation
mission. EU reps questioned whether the U.S. would send a
similar mission. A/S Boucher indicated there would be U.S.
observers and recommended U.S.-EU coordination in Kathmandu.


34. (C) In response to a question on whether the U.S. would
contribute to either of two peace funds put forward by Nepal
and the UN, A/S Boucher noted the U.S. contributes
approximately 40 million dollars in aid to Nepal, and it was
not clear there would be a contribution to a peace fund. EU
interlocutors concluded the discussion by stating that
relations between the EU and Nepal were back to normal after
the suspension of their Joint Cooperation Agreement. EU
contributions planned for the period 2007-10 would
approximate 60 million Euros over four years.

Regional cooperation in Asia
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35. (C) Boucher encouraged support to SAARC, given the
possibilities of South Asian and intra-regional free trade,
although he recognized SAARC accomplishments over the past 20
years could be characterized as minimal.


36. (U) This cable has been cleared by the Bureau of South
and Central Asian Affairs.
.