Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRIDGETOWN906
2007-07-16 19:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:  

ST. LUCIA: GOVERNMENT CRISIS POSSIBLE

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR EAID ETRD CH TX ST XL 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5086
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0277
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1766
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000906 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR AND EAP/CM AND TC
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ETRD CH TX ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA: GOVERNMENT CRISIS POSSIBLE

REF: BRIDGETOWN 525

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000906

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR AND EAP/CM AND TC
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ETRD CH TX ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA: GOVERNMENT CRISIS POSSIBLE

REF: BRIDGETOWN 525

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Post's May 10 meeting with St. Lucia's
Comptroller of Customs and the Acting Commissioner of Police
was a cry for help from PM Compton and his few remaining
loyalists. While PM Compton is reportedly recovering in New
York from a stroke, his chances of hanging on to power may be
diminishing. Should PM Compton fall from power, his warring
cabinet and party may choose a successor, Richard Fredrick,
who has known narcotrafficking ties. St. Lucia's Acting PM
Stephenson King, a Compton loyalist, is seeking U.S.
assistance to build a case against Fredrick in order to
prevent his rise to power. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On May 9, Post received a request for an urgent
meeting with St. Lucia's Comptroller of Customs, Terence
Leonard, and the Acting Commissioner of Police, John
Broughton. (Note: Broughton is a former UK police officer
brought to St. Lucia to assist with the country's law
enforcement reforms.) The meeting took place on May 10 in
Embassy Bridgetown. Per request from the St. Lucians,
Embassy's law enforcement agencies, including FBI and DEA,
were present at the meeting; PolOff also participated.
According to Leonard and Broughton, they requested the
meeting with Post based on instructions from Acting PM
Stephenson King, who presumably received instructions from PM
Compton.

NEWS OF PM COMPTON'S STROKE
--------------


3. (C) Leonard and Broughton confirmed the rumors of PM
Compton's hospitalization, stating that Compton is recovering
in New York from a stroke. They doubted that he would be
able to return to his government responsibilities, given his
advanced age. (Note: PM Compton is 83 years old. End
Note.) The stroke reportedly left PM Compton with slurred
speech, a symptom that may persist for some time if not

permanently. However, Leonard and Broughton told Post that
Compton is not ready to give up power just yet. He
apparently told Acting PM King that, upon his return from the
United States, he would fire the eight ministers who formed a
rival cabinet faction and led the St. Lucian government to
recognize Taiwan over China without Compton's agreement
(reftel).


4. (C) The news of Compton,s stroke leaked out in a St.
Lucian radio call-in program on May 10. Although Acting PM
King called the radio program to quash the story, regional
media picked it up. The following day, May 11, regional
media and news outlets reported on PM Compton's stroke and
hospitalization. Leonard and Broughton shared with Post
their concerns that the public is already doubtful of the
official explanation offered by Acting PM King that PM
Compton was in the United States for routine medical tests
and that the tests extended beyond what had been initially
expected. However, they admitted that the public,s
attention was temporarily diverted by the St. Lucia Jazz
Festival taking place during May 4-13.

GOVERNMENT CRISIS AHEAD?
--------------


5. (C) Leonard and Broughton were clearly concerned that PM
Compton may lose the premiership in the near future. They
believe that Foreign Minister Rufus Bousquet and Housing
Minister Richard Fredrick, the two leaders of the
anti-Compton cabinet faction, will try to seize power.
Although the cabinet has been putting on a show of unity
since the April 30 recognition of Taiwan that sparked the
current crisis, rumors and speculations about the cabinet
split are circulating widely. The absence of both PM Compton
and Foreign Minister Bousquet from St. Lucia over the past
week may have helped keep the Compton government from
unraveling. However, Bousquet is due to return from travel
abroad in the next few days, and his return may set the
political maneuverings back in motion. Post's meeting with
Leonard and Broughton revealed that Acting PM King is
overwhelmed and scared. A long-time Compton loyalist, King
is experienced but does not appear to be politically savvy or
suffiently powerful to reassert control over the cabinet in
PM Compton's absence.


6. (C) Should PM Compton retire or be forced to retire from
office and parliament, the remaining ten United Workers Party
(UWP) members of parliament would choose a new prime
minister. PM Compton's departure from government would not
necessarily trigger a dissolution of parliament and automatic
elections. Comment: This is probably something that
Bousquet and Fredrick are banking on because they might not
be well positioned to win new elections. Leonard and
Broughton told us that St. Lucians, who admire PM Compton as
the "Father of St. Lucia's Independence," would, at the very
least, object to the shabby treatment PM Compton received at
the hands of his party colleagues. Opposition St. Lucia
Labour Party (SLP) would undoubtedly seek to capitalize on
that sentiment. End Comment.


7. (C) Even without new elections, Leonard and Broughton
were worried that public discontent could boil over and lead
to protests and civil unrest. In addition to the PM Compton
loyalists, hundreds of St. Lucians have recently lost their
jobs on various construction sites because: 1) immediately
after the April 30 Taiwan announcement, China terminated
various construction projects on the island; and 2) the
Minister of Works, Guy Joseph, cancelled all government
capital projects in order to conduct inquiries into cost
overruns by the previous government. Post convened an EAC on
May 11 to discuss the possibility of civil unrest in St.
Lucia and review possible response strategies.

"NEUTRALIZING" FREDRICK
--------------


8. (C) Even though Bousquet led the political coup, Leonard
and Broughton told Post that his accession to the premiership
is by no means assured, should PM Compton step down or be
forced out. In their view, Fredrick, who has ties to
criminal figures engaged in money laundering and
nacrotrafficking, is popular enough and has deep enough
pockets to unseat Bousquet. This scenario apparently
prompted Leonard and Broughton's meeting with Post. Acting
PM King -- and likely PM Compton himself -- are looking for
ways to neutralize Fredrick. Leonard and Broughton requested
any evidence that the United States might have that would
assist them in building a case against Fredrick. Post law
enforcement officials explained that DHS/ICE was working to
expedite St. Lucia's earlier MLAT request for documents
related to possible customs violations by Fredrick. Leonard
and Broughton also met with the UK High Commission to brief
them on the situation in St. Lucia and follow up on a
potential UK lead also related to Fredrick. (Comment: King,
Leonard, and Broughton are engaged in a high-stakes game in
going after Fredrick. Leonard and Broughton told Post that
they can trust only few people in St. Lucia's law enforcement
agencies because of Fredrick's extensive network of friends
and informants. End Comment.)

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Leonard and Broughton presented a much more worrying
picture of St. Lucia's political developments. They and
other PM Compton loyalists are clearly holding out little
hope that PM Compton will be able to recover and reassert
control over the government. If Fredrick rises to the Prime
Minister's or Deputy Prime Minister's office, Leonard and
Broughton's high-stakes game of neutralizing Fredrick would
likely become Mission Impossible.


10. (C) However, most political analysts agree that St.
Lucians did not vote for the UWP in the December 2006
election, but for Sir John Compton. With his retirement
probable and popular protests possible, St. Lucia may face a
period of political instability that could result in the
voters demanding elections in the near future. Such
elections would likely return the SLP to power. An SLP
government would likely continue in the direction it had set
in its previous term of closer ties with Venezuela and Cuba,
and less emphasis on cooperation with the United States.
However, an SLP government would return Fredrick to the
opposition and increase the chances of his arrest.
OURISMAN