OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS LOUDER FOR ST. VINCENT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRIDGETOWN 00740

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR
SOUTHCOMALSO FOR POLAD
ADDIS ABABA FOR ANTHONY FISHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SNAR KCRM VC XL
SUBJECT: OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS LOUDER FOR ST. VINCENT'S
OPPOSITION

REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 369

B. BRIDGETOWN 299

BRIDGETOWN 00000740 001.4 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On Friday, June 8, opposition party leader,
Arnhim Eustace, will lead another protest demonstration in
St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG). This time, Eustace has
managed to gain public support from several members of St.
Vincent's private sector. However, Eustace's goals for this
protest do not match those of the private sector. Prime
Minister Ralph Gonsalves may therefore seek to address the
business leaders' grievances and neutralize Eustace in the
process. End Summary.

"Hurricane Ralph" Mitigation
--------------


2. (C) On May 18, St. Vincent and the Grenadines opposition
leader, Arnhim Eustace, called on the country to participate
in another protest rally on June 8 to protest the country's
"lurching from crisis to crisis, like a ship without a
rudder, battered by rough seas and high winds associated with
'hurricane Ralph.'" Opposition Senator St. Claire Leacock
told EconOff that the June 8 rally will focus on five major
issues that he sees are confronting the poor and middle
class: 1) the newly introduced Value Added Tax; 2) the user
charge for ferry travel to the Grenadines; 3) the effect of
relations with Venezuela and Cuba on foreign investment; 4)
alleged election fraud; and 5) increased criminal activity in
St. Vincent. Leacock predicts a minimum of 7,000 protesters
in attendance when the rally begins at 11:00 a.m.

New Allies Raise the Opposition's Volume
--------------


3. (C) Most of these issues--higher cost of living,
questionable election procedures, increased crime and foreign
policy approaches--are not significantly different from past
opposition rally themes. What will make the June 8 protest
different from previous protests is Eustace's success in
mobilizing public support from the private sector, including
some members of the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Chamber of
Commerce and Industry. (Note: The SVG Chamber of Commerce
and Industry did not officially support the closure of
businesses on June 8, as Eustace asked, but instead left the
decision to its individual members. End Note.)


4. (C) The timing of the rally could not have been better for
Eustace. The Board of the SVG Chamber of Commerce and
Industry elected on May 30 its new president, Jerry George
(Marketing Manager for Digicel),who is a known opposition
party supporter. According to Senator Leacock, there are
four business representatives who have agreed to shutdown
their businesses and speak at the protest rally. As a
result, PM Gonsalves appears to be monitoring the situation
more closely than in the past. According to Ken Boyea,
influential business leader and PM Gonsalves' first cousin,
"The Prime Minister is scared and has been aggressively
lobbying the private sector not to participate in the June 8
protest."

Opposition vs. Private Sector Goals
--------------


5. (C) St. Vincent's newly imposed--and highly unpopular--VAT
system may have introduced new common ground between leaders
of the Vincentian business community and the opposition, but
the principal goals between the two remain different.
Whereas the opposition party has made obvious its desire to
remove the Prime Minister from office altogether, the private
sector instead wants to increase its dialogue and trust with
the Gonsalves government to encourage a better business
climate. However, this may be an uphill battle. Lennox
Lampkin, SVG Chamber of Commerce and Industry's Executive
Director, told EconOff that "it has become increasingly
difficult to promote private sector investment and growth in
an environment where the Prime Minister is at the same time
pushing for a socialist-style economic development agenda,
even if it is just rhetoric." Lampkin also added, "right now
Gonsalves is sending out the message that not only do the
poor deserve better, but that the private sector is going to
finance (various social programs)."


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