ST. LUCIAN CABINET COUP FAILED, BUT NEW PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000644

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR-COLLINS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ETRD CH TX ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIAN CABINET COUP FAILED, BUT NEW PRIME
MINISTER STILL LIKELY

REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 589

B. BRIDGETOWN 525

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: St. Lucia's Prime Minister Sir John Compton
reportedly returned from New York on May 19. His weakened
state probably means that St. Lucia's unsettled political
situation will continue. The government has made no official
announcements since his return, but it is likely that Acting
Prime Minister Stephenson King will continue in that
position. Popular outcry against Foreign Minister Rufus
Bousquet and Housing Minister Richard Fredrick for their
alleged involvement in a cabinet coup against Compton
neutralized their chances to lead the government at this
time. Without Compton, the United Workers Party (UWP)
government may be able to limp along, but probably will not
survive in office the full five years left in its term.
Regardless of who succeeds Compton, a reversal of the
China-Taiwan decision is unlikely in the near term. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) According to press reports and one member of his
cabinet, Prime Minister Sir John Compton returned to St.
Lucia on May 19, following a three-week hospital stay in New
York. While in New York for a routine medical check-up,
Compton suffered a series of strokes (ref B). Since his
return, St. Lucia's government has not yet made an official
announcement concerning his health, possible retirement, or a
successor. However, members of the St. Lucian government
publicly stated that it was unlikely that Compton would
return to his official duties.

EVEN IN SICKNESS, COMPTON PREVAILS
--------------


3. (C) When Compton and FM Bousquet both left for the United
States on May 1, Bousquet appeared well-positioned to push
Compton out of office and politics. Bousquet had just
succeeded in lining up the majority of the cabinet against
Compton and in support of the decision to reestablish
diplomatic relation with Taiwan (ref B). Compton was
outmaneuvered, but Bousquet overplayed his hand. Compton's
illness and rumors of the Bousquet-led cabinet coup generated
an upsurge of public sympathy for Compton, the aging "Father
of St. Lucia." That upsurge was apparently helped along by
Minister for Economic Affairs Ausbert d'Auvergne, a
Compton-loyalist who told a UK diplomat that he has been
working to generate negative press against Bousquet. As a
result, Bousquet is being blamed for Compton's strokes and
has become the most hated man in St. Lucia. His chances of
succeeding Compton are therefore essentially nil. The public
has also found Housing Minister Richard Fredrick guilty by
association for supporting Bousquet in his grab for power.
As such, Fredrick's ambitions too have been temporarily
neutralized. Both ministers kept a low profile the week
prior to Compton's May 19 return.

FRUSTRATION OF THE PEOPLE
--------------


4. (U) In addition to the public's disapproval of Bousquet
and Fredrick, St. Lucians have also been frustrated with the
government's mishandling of the situation. Acting Prime
Minister Stephenson King issued a number of statements, which
in hindsight, proved to be false. What is now being viewed
by St. Lucians as a lack of honesty severely damaged King's
public credibility.

A KING OR A SPIDER: WHO WILL LEAD?
--------------


5. (C) With both Bousquet and Fredrick sidelined, the most
likely candidates to succeed Compton are King and Deputy
Political Leader and Minister for Social Transformation,
Lenard "Spider" Montoute. Given King's mishandling of
information, Montoute seems to be the more popular candidate
among St. Lucians. However, King is the more experienced
political leader, having served as a member of parliament and
Minister for Health in the previous UWP government from 1987
to 1997. He was also considered the backbone of the UWP
during its ten years in opposition (1997-2006). King may
also be the more likely compromise candidate because he is a

non-controversial politician who rarely offends. Some in the
UWP may also consider King's indecisiveness and a lack of
leadership skills as a plus because these qualities would
ensure that King would be only a transitional figure, a
placeholder while the UWP reorganizes itself. Montoute may
get his chance later. He shows more charisma and enthusiasm
than King, but the December 2006 election was only his second
bid for a parliamentary seat and the first he successfully
contested.

THE FUTURE OF CHINA-TAIWAN
--------------


6. (C) Although both King and Montoute reportedly supported
Compton in his plan to keep diplomatic relations with China,
the government will not revisit the issue regardless of who
takes power. Montoute, who personally sees relations with
China over Taiwan as advantageous, told PolOff that the
cabinet made its decision to recognize Taiwan and a reversal
at this point would only cause more damage to St. Lucia's
credibility.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Compton's likely retirement will have a lasting impact
on St. Lucian politics. When Compton retired in 1996, the
UWP imploded under a lack of leadership and suffered from
internal power struggles until Compton came out of retirement
in 2006 and led his party to victory. Now that he may no
longer be able to lead his party, the UWP again appears torn
by internal disagreements and personal rivalries. Compton,
who liked to concentrate all power in his hands, is largely
responsible for this situation. While he built the UWP and
led it to victory a number of times, he failed to plan for
its future by grooming a successor.


8. (C) Regardless of who succeeds Compton, few expect the
new prime minister to last more than a year or two in light
of the power struggles within the UWP. The opposition St.
Lucia Labor Party (SLP) will seek to capitalize on the UWP's
disarray. The SLP is organized, disciplined, and savvy at
spinning the press. Without a strong leader at the UWP helm,
the SLP may succeed at forcing early parliamentary elections.


9. (C) Compton's retirement may also impact U.S. relations
with St. Lucia. Compton naturally gravitated to the United
States, and never lost sight of our shared goals in the
region. He viewed with suspicion the encroachment of the
region's new "benefactors," Venezuela, Cuba, and China. For
example, among his first announcements upon returning to
office in December 2006, was to reject Venezuela's
PetroCaribe program. His possible UWP successors may be too
weak not to make certain compromises.
OURISMAN