(C) ST. LUCIA: TAIWAN DECISION MAY WEAKEN COMPTON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000525

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR-COLLINS AND EAP/CM AND TC
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ETRD CH TX ST XL
SUBJECT: (C) ST. LUCIA: TAIWAN DECISION MAY WEAKEN COMPTON

REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 488


B. BRIDGETOWN 464

C. BRIDGETOWN 104

D. BRIDGETOWN 49

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Minister Rufus Bousquet has emerged
as the head of a rival faction set on forcing Prime Minister
Sir John Compton to retire from politics and leave FM
Bousquet in charge. If Compton's departure is the outcome of
current infighting in the five-month-old government,
suspected money launderer Richard Fredrick will likely be
elevated to the Deputy Prime Minister position. A split
among cabinet members over the decision to diplomatically
recognize Taiwan over China is the current catalyst for this
unexpected development. END SUMMARY.

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MOVING BEHIND COMPTON'S BACK
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2. (C) On April 30, St. Lucia's Foreign Minister Rufus
Bousquet joined Taiwan's Foreign Minister James C.F. Huang in
signing a joint communiquQ reestablishing diplomatic
relations between St. Lucia and Taiwan. However, this
ceremony took place without Prime Minister Sir John Compton's
permission. Reliable sources have informed PolOff that the
Taiwan decision signifies the first great split in the
recently elected United Workers Party (UWP) administration.


3. (C) According to Victor Marquis, editor of the Voice, a
former UWP campaign manager, public relations officer and
close friend to FM Bousquet, PM Compton was negotiating a new
financial agreement to stay with China while FM Bousquet
negotiated reestablishing ties with Taiwan. In exchange for
diplomatic relations, Taiwan reportedly promised Bousquet an
ECD 300 million (USD 120 million) support package, including
"personal assistance" to each elected representative.


4. (C) Marquis described PM Compton's plan to announce in an
April 30 televised address that St. Lucia would stay with
China and that FM Bousquet was fired. It is unclear if
Compton made his decision to continue relations with China
before or after Bousquet's April 24 announcement that St.
Lucia would diplomatically recognize Taiwan.


5. (C) Trumping PM Compton's planned address, FM Bousquet
called a press conference for the morning of April 30 and
signed the communiquQ with Taiwan without PM Compton's
approval. Bousquet did, however, gain the documented support
of seven of the UWP members of parliament (MPs) before taking
this action. Bousquet then faced PM Compton in a cabinet
meeting with the backing of his seven colleagues, leaving
only Stephenson King and Lenard Montoute siding with PM
Compton. Bousquet allegedly confronted Compton in this
meeting, telling the PM it was time for him to go.

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THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM
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6. (C) Compton left for the United States on May 1, his
birthday, for health reasons. He will return on May 5.
Bousquet departed for the United States on May 3 to meet with
private investors and is expected to return on May 7.
Compton tasked Bousquet to attend the Caribbean Community
(CARICOM) Tenth Meeting of the Council for Foreign and
Community Relations (COFCOR) in Belize, for which he will
depart May 8 or 9 and return May 12. Unless these plans
shift, Compton will have time upon his return to
counter-maneuver against Bousquet in the latter's absence
from St. Lucia.


7. (C) Marquis revealed that Bousquet has a possible plan to
buy off Compton using money from the Taiwan package. This
plan involves Compton taking an extended leave for health
reasons and then finally retiring, leaving Bousquet as prime
minister. If Bousquet is successful, Minister of Housing
Richard Fredrick, suspected money launderer and supporter of
narcotraffickers, may well be appointed deputy prime minister.

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WORD GETTING OUT
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8. (C) Philip J. Pierre, deputy political leader of the
opposition St. Lucia Labour Party (SLP),made a more cautious
assessment of the political turmoil. Pierre agreed that the
Taiwan decision signaled the first split in the current
administration. He observed that Compton, King, and Montoute
were not at the Taiwan communiquQ signing, but that all the
other MPs attended. Pierre also foresaw "interesting times
ahead" as a result of the instability now surfacing.
However, Pierre predicted that the UWP will eventually
resolve the current row, although the party may split again
over future issues.


9. (C) In response to allegations in the press that the
Taiwan issue has caused a split in St. Lucia's cabinet,
Acting Prime Minister Stephenson King is scheduled to make a
statement on May 4 to quell these rumors. According to
Commerce Minister Guy Mayers, the rumors are completely false
and the cabinet is unified behind the decision to renew ties
with Taiwan. As far as post knows, the PRC mission has not
budged from St. Lucia, nor has had any official communication
with the St. Lucian Foreign Ministry, since the April 30
press conference. It is possible that the mission is waiting
for a resolution of the tug-of-war within the ruling party.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) To date, PM Sir John Compton has been the dominant
politician in St. Lucia's short history, having served as
Prime Minister for 15 of St. Lucia's 28 years of
independence. If anyone can survive an internal putsch, it
is probably Compton. However, his advanced age and the
contempt in which the majority of cabinet members hold
Compton's most trusted confidant, Senator Ausbert d'Auvergne
(ref B),are working against him. If Bousquet successfully
usurps power, he will likely be seen as a savvy operator. He
remains, however, an inexperienced leader with a questionable
past (ref C). The greater concern, however, would be
newcomer Fredrick's predicted rise to be deputy prime
minister. His ties to money laundering and narcotraffickers
are a natural concern for post (ref D). Even if Bousquet's
maneuvering is unsuccessful, his ability to inspire a
majority of the ruling party MPs to stand against PM Compton
illustrates a significant erosion in the power of a man
accustomed to ruling single-handedly.
OURISMAN