Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRIDGETOWN338
2007-03-19 17:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:  

PRIME MINISTER ARTHUR'S POPULARITY CONTINUES TO

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR BB XL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWN #0338/01 0781756
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 191756Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4401
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1654
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHCV/USDAO CARACAS VE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000338 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BB XL
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER ARTHUR'S POPULARITY CONTINUES TO
CLIMB

REF: 06 BRIDGETOWN 1708

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000338

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BB XL
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER ARTHUR'S POPULARITY CONTINUES TO
CLIMB

REF: 06 BRIDGETOWN 1708

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A recent public opinion poll confirmed that
Prime Minister Owen Arthur remains the most popular Barbadian
politician and is well-positioned to lead his Barbados Labour
Party (BLP) to victory in parliamentary elections expected
later this year. David Thompson, PM Arthur's rival and
leader of the opposition Democratic Labour Party (DLP),has
failed to generate momentum in his campaign and continues to
struggle against perceptions that he and his party are not
ready to lead the country. While the poll also showed that
there is a widespread desire among Barbadians for a change in
government, PM Arthur's continued dominance of Barbados'
politics will probably be sufficient to secure an
unprecedented fourth consecutive term for his administration.
END SUMMARY.

A BOOST FOR PM ARTHUR
--------------


2. (U) On March 4, the daily Nation's "Sunday Sun" published
another of its periodic public opinion polls, conducted in
February and early March in all of Barbados' 30
constituencies. The poll again found PM Arthur to be the
most popular politician in Barbados, with 52 percent of the
poll's respondents giving him the thumbs up. PM Arthur saw
his approval rating improve by three percent since the last
poll conducted five months ago (reftel). Other BLP members
fared less well. The poll found that only 13 percent of
respondents named Deputy Prime Minister Mia Mottley as their
preferred candidate for prime minister, down from 15 percent
in September. Only five percent supported Clyde Mascoll, the
former opposition leader who crossed party lines to join the
Arthur administration as a Minister of State in the Finance
Ministry in February 2006.

OPPOSITION SUFFERS
--------------


3. (U) For Barbados' opposition leader, David Thompson, the
latest poll was full of bad news. Only 28 percent of the
respondents named Thompson as their choice for the prime
minister's job. His popularity changed only slightly from

the 29 percent approval rating he garnered in the previous
poll. The DLP's efforts to generate some momentum in their
campaign are not yielding results, since only 22 percent of
those polled view the party as ready to lead Barbados.
Thompson can take heart from only one result of the poll:
within the DLP, Thompson's leadership is unquestioned, with
81 percent of those identifying themselves as DLP supporters
naming Thompson as their choice for prime minister. For a
party that only a year ago was in a leadership crisis
following the departure of Mascoll, this is probably a
welcome sign.

DLP FAILS TO EXPLOIT BLP VULNERABILITIES
--------------


4. (U) PM Arthur's approval ratings have been undoubtedly
buoyed by Barbados' relatively solid economic performance
over the past two years. With unemployment at its lowest
level in decades and economic growth forecast to top four
percent in 2007, PM Arthur, who also serves as the country's
Finance Minister, can claim some credit for these
achievements. However, economic issues continue to top the
voters' concerns. Four of the top five "major national
issues" identified by the poll's respondents were pocketbook
issues: cost of living, unemployment, housing, and the
economy. High cost of living was a concern for nearly a
third of those polled, mirroring the recent public outcry
over climbing prices, especially of food. Thompson and
others in the opposition have sought to capitalize on these
concerns, but they have yet to offer a convincing alternative
to the voters. Some commentators have speculated that with
the departure of Mascoll from the DLP, the DLP lost its most
trusted and respected voice on economic issues and may not be
able to regain the voters' confidence in time for the
election.


5. (C) However, that is exactly what Thompson must do in
order to take advantage of the growing number of Barbadians
who say that it is time for a change in government. The poll
found that 42 percent of respondents would like to see a

change in the country's government, up from 38 percent last
September. Nevertheless, as Thompson's low approval ratings
show, those 42 percent do not necessarily view Thompson as a
viable alternative to PM Arthur. Last fall, Thompson and his
DLP appeared to kick their early campaigning into high gear,
with weekly townhall-style constituency meetings and
frequent, high-profile attacks against the government's
record on key economic issues. However, as this latest poll
shows, the DLP's efforts have yielded no results.


6. (C) Following the December 11 victory by Sir John Compton
in St. Lucia's parliamentary elections, commentators in
Barbados speculated whether Thompson might be able to pull
off a Compton-style upset. The latest poll indicates that
such a result is unlikely. While pre-election polls in St.
Lucia were often contradictory, most observers agreed that
the race was too close to call. That is not the case in
Barbados. Thanks to PM Arthur's popularity, the BLP remains
the only party trusted to govern in Barbados. Furthermore,
Compton, unlike David Thompson, is a proven leader, having
steered his country to independence in 1979 and served as
prime minister from 1964-79 and 1982-96. Thompson's only
stint in government was during the early 1990s, when Barbados
faced an economic meltdown and the DLP government proved
completely inept at handling the crisis.

BABY FIRST, THEN ELECTION
--------------


7. (U) PM Arthur recently revealed that his wife was
expecting their second child later this year. In making this
happy announcement, PM Arthur also said that he would not
call the election until after the baby's birth: "I could not
be in a position to be rushing from the platform to Pampers;
that couldn't work." The earliest possible date for the
parliamentary elections would therefore be sometime in the
fall of 2007.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The latest poll has undoubtedly generated some
soul-searching within the DLP. Clearly, a significant number
of Barbadians desire a government change, but the DLP has
been unable to convince potential supporters that the
opposition is ready to lead the country. Thompson has failed
to articulate a clear vision or a set of policies that his
party would implement to address Barbadians' chief concerns.
This inability to connect with voters, combined with his
incessant attacks on PM Arthur and the BLP government, have
done little to build up his image as a leader. While it
appears unlikely that Thompson could win a national contest
against PM Arthur, Barbados' parliamentary elections are
decided in individual constituencies on a first-past-the-post
(simple majority) basis. If the voters who are tired of the
BLP-led government look past Thompson and vote for the
opposition candidates in their constituencies, the DLP could
still have a slim chance of winning. However, PM Arthur's
strong showing in the latest poll shows just how slim that
chance is.
GILROY