PRIME MINISTER ARTHUR'S POPULARITY CONTINUES TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000332

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BB XL
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER ARTHUR'S POPULARITY CONTINUES TO
CLIMB

REF: 06 BRIDGETOWN 1708

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: A recent public opinion poll confirmed that Prime
Minister Owen Arthur remains the most popular Barbadian politician
and is well-positioned to lead his Barbados Labour Party (BLP) to
victory in parliamentary elections expected later this year. David
Thompson, PM Arthur's rival and leader of the opposition Democratic
Labour Party (DLP),has failed to generate momentum in his campaign and
continues to struggle against perceptions that he and his party are not
ready to lead the country. While the poll also showed that there is a
widespread desire among Barbadians for a change in government, PM
Arthur's continued dominance of Barbados' politics will probably be
sufficient to secure an unprecedented fourth consecutive term for his
administration. END SUMMARY.

A BOOST FOR PM ARTHUR
--------------


2. (U) On March 4, the daily Nation's "Sunday Sun" published
another of its periodic public opinion polls, conducted in February and
early March in all of Barbados' 30 constituencies. The poll again foun
PM Arthur to be the most popular politician in Barbados, with 52 percen
of the poll's respondents giving him the thumbs up. PM Arthur saw his
approval rating improve by three percent since the last poll conducted
five months ago (reftel). Other BLP members fared less well. The poll
found that only 13 percent of respondents named Deputy Prime Minister
Mia Mottley as their preferred candidate for prime minister, down from
15 percent in September. Only five percent supported Clyde Mascoll, th
former opposition leader who crossed party lines to join the Arthur
administration as a Minister of State in the Finance Ministry in
February 2006.

OPPOSITION SUFFERS
--------------


3. (U) For Barbados' opposition leader, David Thompson, the latest
poll was full of bad news. Only 28 percent of the respondents named
Thompson as their choice for the prime minister's job. His popularity
changed only slightly from the 29 percent approval rating he garnered i
the previous poll. The DLP's efforts to generate some momentum in thei
campaign are not yielding results, since only 22 percent of those polle
view the party as ready to lead Barbados. Thompson can take heart from
only one result of the poll: within the DLP, Thompson's leadership is
unquestioned, with 81 percent of those identifying themselves as DLP
supporters naming Thompson as their choice for prime minister. For a
party that only a year ago was in a leadership crisis following the
departure of Mascoll, this is probably a welcome sign.

DLP FAILS TO EXPLOIT BLP VULNERABILITIES
--------------


4. (U) PM Arthur's approval ratings have been undoubtedly buoyed
by Barbados' relatively solid economic performance over the past two
years. With unemployment at its lowest level in decades and economic
growth forecast to top four percent in 2007, PM Arthur, who also serves
as the country's Finance Minister, can claim some credit for these
achievements. However, economic issues continue to top the voters'
concerns. Four of the top five "major national issues" identified by th
poll's respondents were pocketbook issues: cost of living,
unemployment, housing, and the economy. High cost of living was a
concern for nearly a third of those polled, mirroring the recent public
outcry over climbing prices, especially of food. Thompson and others i
the opposition have sought to capitalize on these concerns, but they
have yet to offer a convincing alternative to the voters. Some
commentators have speculated that with the departure of Mascoll from th
DLP, the DLP lost its most trusted and respected voice on economic
issues and may not be able to regain the voters' confidence in time for
the election.


5. (C) However, that is exactly what Thompson must do in order to
take advantage of the growing number of Barbadians who say that it is
time for a change in government. The poll found that 42 percent of
respondents would like to see a change in the country's government, up
from 38 percent last September. Nevertheless, as Thompson's low
approval ratings show, those 42 percent do not necessarily view Thompso
as a viable alternative to PM Arthur. Last fall, Thompson and his DLP
appeared to kick their early campaigning into high gear, with weekly
townhall-style constituency meetings and frequent, high-profile attacks
against the government's record on key economic issues. However, as
this latest poll shows, the DLP's efforts have yielded no results.


6. (C) Following the December 11 victory by Sir John Compton in
St. Lucia's parliamentary elections, commentators in Barbados
speculated whether Thompson might be able to pull off a Compton-style
upset. The latest poll indicates that such a result is unlikely. While
pre- election polls in St. Lucia were often contradictory, most
observers agreed that the race was too close to call. That is not the
case in Barbados. Thanks to PM Arthur's popularity, the BLP remains the
only party trusted to govern in Barbados. Furthermore, Compton, unlike
David Thompson, is a proven leader, having steered his country to
independence in 1979 and served as prime minister from 1964-79 and
1982-96. Thompson's only stint in government was during the early
1990s, when Barbados faced an economic meltdown and the DLP government
proved completely inept at handling the crisis.

BABY FIRST, THEN ELECTION
--------------


7. (U) PM Arthur recently revealed that his wife was expecting
their second child later this year. In making this happy announcement,
PM Arthur also said that he would not call the election until after
the baby's birth: "I could not be in a position to be rushing from
the platform to Pampers; that couldn't work." The earliest possible
date for the parliamentary elections would therefore be sometime in the
fall of 2007.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The latest poll has undoubtedly generated some soul-
searching within the DLP. Clearly, a significant number of Barbadians
desire a government change, but the DLP has been unable to convince
potential supporters that the opposition is ready to lead the country.
Thompson has failed to articulate a clear vision or a set of policies
that his party would implement to address Barbadians' chief concerns.
This inability to connect with voters, combined with his incessant
attacks on PM Arthur and the BLP government, have done little to build
up his image as a leader. While it appears unlikely that Thompson could
win a national contest against PM Arthur, Barbados' parliamentary
elections are decided in individual constituencies on a
first-past-the-post (simple majority) basis. If the voters who are
tired of the BLP-led government look past Thompson and vote for the
opposition candidates in their constituencies, the DLP could still have
a slim chance of winning. However, PM Arthur's strong showing in the
latest poll shows just how slim that chance is.
GILROY