Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BRIDGETOWN23
2007-01-05 20:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bridgetown
Cable title:  

GRENADA TRYING TO READ ST. LUCIA TEA LEAVES

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR GJ XL 
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DE RUEHWN #0023/01 0052039
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 052039Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4012
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1596
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHCV/USDAO CARACAS VE PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000023 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR, SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR GJ XL
SUBJECT: GRENADA TRYING TO READ ST. LUCIA TEA LEAVES

REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 2202


B. BRIDGETOWN 2180

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 000023

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR, SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR GJ XL
SUBJECT: GRENADA TRYING TO READ ST. LUCIA TEA LEAVES

REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 2202


B. BRIDGETOWN 2180

Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Grenadians are reading the tea leaves of the
St. Lucia election, hoping to find clues to their own future.
Speculation is rampant that Prime Minister Keith Mitchell
will call elections following Cricket World Cup in an attempt
to ride the expected popular high following successful games.
Although elections have not actually been called, both
political parties are campaigning. The problem for Grenada
in trying to read the surprise opposition victory in St.
Lucia as a harbinger for things to come is that, unlike in
St. Lucia, there does not appear to be a comparable respected
elder statesman to turn to.


2. (SBU) The end-of-year debate on the budget bill the
government of Grenada presented to parliament on December 15
was less a discussion of the specific proposals and more a
staking out of positions for the expected election. The
opposition walked out of the budget debate on December 20
when the Speaker of Parliament chided opposition member Peter
David for bringing up unrelated issues when the latter
referred to an alleged video of PM Mitchell taking money from
a corrupt businessman. A vigil against corruption was held
on the Careenage (a popular gathering spot on St. George's
waterfront) the same evening which appears to be the primary
issue the opposition will run on. END SUMMARY.


3. (U) Grenada's Prime Minister Keith Mitchell congratulated
Sir John Compton immediately following the opposition United
Workers Party's (UWP) December 11 electoral victory in St.
Lucia, hailing Sir John as a "leader with experience and
vision." Mitchell said Compton was one of those who provided
help to him when he assumed office in 1995. Compton,
Mitchell added, will play a "crucial leadership role in the
Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)." PM
Mitchell pledged to continue the close working relationship
Grenada and St. Lucia have enjoyed.

HARBINGER OF CHANGE IN GRENADA?

--------------


4. (C) Official congratulations aside, many in Grenada are
wondering whether Compton's victory foreshadows the outcome
of the next Grenada election, expected sometime after Cricket
World Cup, possibly as early as fall 2007 (though not
required until, at the latest, January 2009). Initial press
reporting about St. Lucia's election was mostly factual,
followed by more nuanced reactions, including barely
controlled elation among opposition politicians who see the
UWP victory in St. Lucia as a clear indication that regional
political trends are going their way. For their part, the
Grenada's opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC)
hammers away at themes similar to those used in the St. Lucia
campaign, e.g., corruption, arrogance of the ruling party
(the New National Party, or NNP) which has "lost touch with
the people." The NDC relies on reporting from the U.S. and
elsewhere, and continues to call on the government to
investigate these allegations, rather than seeking out and
providing convincing evidence on their own. If even half of
what the critics claim is true, there is some very serious
official corrupt activity taking place in Grenada. The NDC
approach is to throw out accusations and taunt the NNP to
prove them wrong. This is good political theatre, and fun to
watch. It is not, however, very edifying.


5. (C) Grenada has very free, but rather lazy, media, that
devote relatively few resources to serious investigative
reporting, relying instead on editorials heavy with innuendo
and call-in radio and television shows, as well as reports
(unchecked) from elsewhere, including the U.S., Europe, Latin
America, and the Caribbean. The two main television news
shows, running 30 minutes each evening, are generally pretty
good at reporting what is happening, but do not delve very
far beneath the surface. This combination of political
attacks and innuendo leaves the public with an increasingly
uneasy feeling about their government. The NDC, which has
yet to offer any clear explanation of what an NDC government
would offer, obviously believes that such an approach will
work in their favor. A number of Embassy contacts agree that
it will. They also agree that the public is confused. One
reflected the mood best when he said, "People want change;
they don't know why, but they want something different. When
it happens, they may be unhappy, because what they get may
not be what they thought they were promised." Should the NDC
win the next elections--and many here are convinced they have
a good shot at doing so--it may be as much change for
change's sake as support for a, thus far, nebulous NDC agenda.

FOCUS ON CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS
--------------


6. (C) On December 20, during the budget debate, the
opposition staged a walkout after the Speaker of Parliament
chided NDC member Peter David for straying from the issue at
hand when he brought up an ongoing case in which the Prime
Minister is alleged to have taken US$500,000 from a German
businessman and was apparently caught on video. David called
on the Attorney General to officially request the USG to
assist in getting a copy of the video from the state court in
Massachusetts that has it (NOTE: Mitchell maintains he
received US$15,000 to cover travel expenses, not US$500,000.
The Commission of Inquiry set up in June 2005 by the Governor
General to investigate the allegations adjourned after
hearing several witnesses' testimony without finding Mitchell
guilty of any wrongdoing. Offshore Alert--the Miami-based
newsletter that originally broke the story--periodically
publishes articles reiterating the charges and most recently
claims the inquiry is on hold as the leader of the
opposition, Tillman Thomas, sued shortly after the inquiry
began for an opposition lawyer to participate in questioning
witnesses. The article states that the court action must be
completed before the Commission may resume its work. Post
cannot confirm the accuracy of these statements. As recently
as December 16, PM Mitchell felt forced to defend his
actions, issuing a long statement again denying the charges.
As long as the case remains unresolved, the NDC has the
perfect club with which to bludgeon the NNP. END NOTE.)


7. (C) The government on November 29 introduced two very
serious anti-corruption bills: the Integrity in Public Life
Bill and The Prevention of Corruption Bill, which would
require all public officials to report all income and
establish an Integrity Commission to oversee the reports and
review government practices in order to provide public
accountability of all government officials. Both bills
received one reading, of the required three, but have been
put aside as Parliament tries to pass the 2007 budget bill.
The opposition has not tipped its hand about whether it will
support the bills, presumably either because they do not want
the NNP government to get credit for passing the legislation
or because they are concerned that the requirements will be
too tough on them, should they take over in the next election.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Grenada does not have an elder statesman waiting in
the wings to swoop the electorate off its feet as Compton did
in St. Lucia. There are rumors that, should the NDC win the
next election, its current leader might be pushed aside by
others in the party who do not believe Tillman Thomas is
ideologically pure enough (though in conversations with
Charge, Thomas still espouses the revolutionary party line).
The political roots of many in the NDC, including Thomas, go
back to the now-defunct political parties which staged the
revolution of 1979 deposing then-Prime Minister Eric Gairy in
a bloodless coup. Thomas spent time in prison during the
revolutionary period, having fallen afoul of its leaders.
Grenada's revolution ultimately collapsed amid bloody
infighting, triggering the U.S.-Caribbean military
intervention of October 25, 1983. Even if the NDC wins the
next election with Thomas as its leader, an internal power
struggle may ensue over who will ultimately be Grenada's next
Prime Minister.
OURISMAN