ST LUCIA: JOHN COMPTON'S DAUGHTER LIKELY TO WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 001409

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CN TW ST XL
SUBJECT: ST LUCIA: JOHN COMPTON'S DAUGHTER LIKELY TO WIN
BY-ELECTION, BUT IF SHE DOESN'T...


Classified By: CDA Clyde Howard for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Jeanine Compton-Rambally, daughter of former
prime minister Sir John Compton, will likely win an upcoming
by-election for the seat left vacant by her father's death.
Although unlikely, the opposition could narrowly win the seat
if the participation of two independent candidates splinters
the ruling party votes. This would result in a significantly
weakened ruling party relying on two disgruntled members to
keep a majority. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Jeanine Compton-Rambally, a marine biologist and
daughter of former prime minister Sir John Compton, is the
front runner candidate for the by-election to fill Micoud
North, the seat left empty by her father's death in
September. Although not yet officially announced, two
contacts have confirmed that the election will be during the
last week of November.

The Candidates
--------------


3. (U) Currently, four candidates are poised to compete for
the coveted seat, a traditional stronghold for the ruling
United Workers Party (UWP). In addition to Compton-Rambally,
opposition candidate Silas Wilson of the St. Lucia Labour
Party (SLP) will contest, along with independent candidates
George Daniel, an economist and lecturer at Sir Arthur Lewis
Community College, and Marius Wilson, previous member of
parliament both as an independent and member of the UWP.
Compton-Rambally narrowly beat Daniel 29 to 27 votes in an
election for the candidacy conducted by the UWP's National
Council. Following this vote, many Micoud citizens were
rather vocal in expressing that, although the people of
Micoud love former Prime Minister Compton, his daughter is
not one of them while Daniel is.

Jeanine to Win
--------------


4. (C) Many are speculating that Daniel's candidacy could
upset Compton-Rambally's chance to win, allowing Silas Wilson
to walk into the seat. However, one reliable political
analyst countered this possibility, stating to PolOff that
Compton-Rambally has three factors that will ensure success.
First is the women's vote. There are currently no women
members of parliament (MP),making a female victor
attractive. Second, the UWP sent two of its most popular MPs
to the rally announcing her candidacy: Guy Joseph and Richard
Frederick, a Micoud native. Third, Compton-Rambally reminds
people of her father. In addition to these factors, her
being the official UWP candidate guarantees her a certain
percentage of votes. According to this contact, although
Daniel has a certain pocket of support, it will not be enough
to upset the election.

But If She Doesn't...
--------------


5. (C) In contrast, a political pundit and former UWP
campaign manager told PolOff that the UWP does not
necessarily have this election in the bag. He stated that a
UWP organizer confided his fear that Daniel could upset the
election in favor of the SLP. He also opined that an SLP
victory would have important ramifications. First, it would
illustrate a loss in UWP popularity due to the various
political blunders of the last six months. Second, it would
result in a potentially unstable situation for the ruling
UWP. In a 17-member parliament, the UWP would hold only 10
seats, two of which are held by disgruntled party members
removed from cabinet -- former foreign minister Rufus
Bousquet and deputy speaker of the house Marcus Nicholas.
According to this pundit, Bousquet's and Nicholas' loyalty is
low enough to conceivably result in their crossing the aisle,
allowing the SLP to retake government with a 9-8 majority in
parliament.

Comment: A Possible Return to Beijing?
--------------


6. (C) A UWP victory in the by-election would mean business
as usual for the government. Although a longshot, an SLP
victory has much greater ramifications. The power that a
10-7 parliament would give Bousquet and Nicholas cannot be
underestimated. Either the UWP would have to concede to
demands by these two MPs to keep them loyal or the SLP could
dangle enough incentives to bring them over. If the SLP
managed to temp Bousquet and Nicholas and shift the
parliamentary majority to its favor, a reinstated SLP
government would switch diplomatic relations from Taiwan back
to China less than a year after the government formally
recognized Taiwan.
HOWARD