PM FICO AND PRESIDENT GASPAROVIC ON AFGHANISTAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRATISLAVA 000417

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS YI KO RU UNSC PHUM LO
SUBJECT: PM FICO AND PRESIDENT GASPAROVIC ON AFGHANISTAN,
KOSOVO, MD, AND MORE

REF: REFTEL BRATISLAVA 00416

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
)


1. (C)Summary. Paragraphs 4-12 contain notes from the
Ambassador,s July 19 Meeting with PM Robert Fico. Paragraphs
13-19 contain notes from the Ambassador's July 18 meeting
with President Gasparovic.

SUMMARY OF THE MEETING WITH PM FICO
--------------

2. (C) The Ambassador met PM Robert Fico for their regular
bimonthly breakfast on July 19. The PM told the Ambassador
that he:
- would support a motion in Parliament to expand and change
the mission of Slovak military forces in Afghanistan;
- thinks the EU will be able to reach a common position on
Kosovo that will allow for recognition in the event a UNSCR
cannot be reached;
- will nominate FM Jan Kubis to be a European Commissioner in
2009;
- would have the full support of his government if he wanted
his personal opposition to Missile Defense to become official
policy;
- Was not aware of the recent announcement that Yukos Finance
would be auctioned off, but did not think such a move would
undermine the GOS' ability to influence a future sale of the
49 percent Transpetrol stake.
- is able to protect Slovak Information Service from HzDS
Chairman Vladimir Meciar's intrigues.

SUMMARY OF THE MEETING WITH PRESIDENT GASPAROVIC
-------------- ---

3. (C) The Ambassador had breakfast with President Ivan
Gasparovic on July 18. The President told the Ambassador that
he:
- supports a more robust Slovak commitment to Afghanistan;
- believes bilateral recognition of Kosovo is impossible for
Slovakia;
- hopes to receive a positive response before September to
his request for a White House visit in November/December;
-continues to support President Bush's vision for a free Iraq
and warned that a quick pullout would be disastrous. End
Summaries.

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PM FICO
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AFGHANISTAN
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4. (C) The PM energetically endorsed DefMin Frantisek
Kasicky's recent statement that Slovakia will focus on
overseas missions in Afghanistan, Cyprus and the Balkans.
Fico said Kasicky and his staff are preparing options and
that he, Kasicky, Slovak PermRep to NATO Igor Slobodnik and
FM Jan Kubis would meet to discuss options and agree on a
plan when the government returns late summer. Fico said any
plan that would change the mission or the number of soldiers
would require parliamentary approval, but he said he would
gladly submit a proposal to parliament and believes it would
be approved. Fico commented "We have no problem with
Afghanistan."

KOSOVO
--------------

5. (C) In the prior day's meeting Fico discussed Kosovo with
Italian PM Romano Prodi and found they share exactly the same
position - that there can be no bilateral recognition of
Kosovo without either a UNSCR or a common EU position. Fico
seemed confident, however, that the EU would be able to reach
a common position despite the reservations of Spain, Cyprus,
Romania and others. When pressed by the Ambassador on his
optimism, Fico said "it was a great tragedy for the EU to be
split on Iraq. But Iraq is thousands of kilometers away.
Kosovo is within Europe, and its problems must be resolved by
Europeans. I believe we can come up with a common EU position
and despite the parliamentary debate here, we will join that
position. We owe our success here to the EU, and we must all
be part of the EU solution." (Note: Fico did not specify what
such a common position might be. End note.)

FM KUBIS

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6. (C) Fico shrugged off persistent rumors (REFTEL) that
Kubis is looking for new work or at risk of being replaced
because of disagreements within the government. Fico said he
is satisfied with the job Kubis is doing, but also recognized
that Kubis is "an intelligent kind of guy (who) thrives best
in a multilateral atmosphere." Saying the Ambassador was the
first person to hear his plan, Fico confided that he intends
to make Kubis a European commissioner in 2009, when the
Barroso Commission is due to leave office. Fico said he
publicly supported Kubis in front of all the Slovak
Ambassadors at a recent conference and expressed confidence
that Kubis would stay in his position at MFA through 2009.

MISSILE DEFENSE
--------------

7. (C) The Ambassador lamented that, in reply to a question
from an Italian journalist on July 17, Fico had again
expressed his "personal" opposition to U.S. MD plans. Fico
said that his personal opinion is actually that of his
government as well and said that if he ever brought the issue
to the government to create an official position the vote
would be 16 to 0 in opposition to MD bases in the Czech
Republic and Poland. In response to the Ambassador,s offer
of a classified briefing on the Iranian missile threat, Fico
said that while it would be fine to show the government such
information, it is even more important to change the views of
the Slovak public which does not believe the threat is real
because of the number of times the US has cried wolf on
terrorism over the last six years.


8. (C) Fico asked the Ambassador whether the Czechs would
accept MD. Fico said Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD)
leader Jiri Paroubek believes elections will be called in the
near future and Fico believes MD is a political winner since
"it separates the government from the opposition, and is
opposed by the majority." He preferred not to know if
Paroubek's private opinion was different from a politically
expedient position, but was going to ask Paroubek during
their meeting on July 20. Fico said he believes in his heart
that MD is wrong, that it should be a collective NATO or EU
decision, and not bilateral. Rhetorically, Fico asked "why
are we a member of NATO if we don,t discuss these things
that are clearly related to the defense of Europe?"

TRANSPETROL
--------------

9. (C) Ambassador noted the recent announcement that Yukos
Finance would be auctioned off in August, and asked if Fico
felt, as MinEcon Jahnatek does, that the Russians had reneged
on the Putin/Fico deal, from their meeting in May. Fico
said he was unaware of the auction and denied he had made any
deal with Putin. Ambassador pointed out that buying Yukos
Finance means that the purchasing party would get control of
YF's claims to Transpetrol without obtaining GOS approval and
that the Poles, Gazprom, or even Americans are potential
buyers. PM said it was too risky and complicated for a Slovak
bid and opined that the GOS had sufficient legal protections
going forward. Ambassador asked if PM feels that Putin would
demand that a Russian buyer meet the four Slovak conditions.
Fico said he could not imagine such a scenario. Ambassador
noted the benefits of a Slovak-friendly buyer in resolving
problems with Yukos International. (See SEPTEL or REFTEL)

SLOVAK INFORMATION SERVICE (SIS)
--------------

10. (C) Fico said that HzDS Chairman Vladimir Meciar cannot
understand why the PM does not use the SIS in the same way
Meciar himself did. Fico believes Meciar is concerned he
will use the SIS to uncover all the 'business' that
politicians from the co-ruling HZDS and Slovak National Party
(SNS) are engaged in. Fico brushed off the concern saying
that "first of all, I already know all their business from
other sources. Second, I subscribe to the old Slovak proverb,
'the gun I use on others can easily be turned on me.'" Fico
called Magala a long time friend and said he runs SIS
independent of political interference. Fico said he is aware
that Meciar will continue to fight to get his own person into
SIS and is planning an attempt to lower the SIS budget to 600
million Slovak crowns in the fall. Fico stated, however, that
he can outwit Meciar by giving him the budget cut and then
returning the money to Magala through the MOD and the MOI.

VISAS

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11. (C) The Ambassador praised Fico for his realistic public
statements on the Visa Waiver Program and briefed the PM on
the recent appointment of congressional conferees for the
9/11 bill. Although the Ambassador said there was hope for
very cautious optimism, the PM agreed it would be best to
avoid raising public expectations.

ROMA
--------------

12. (C) Fico said the last time he visited his cottage he,
his son, and bodyguards played (and lost) a game of soccer
with a group of 10 year-old Roma children. The Ambassador
mentioned the Embassy's outreach to Roma children through
sports diplomacy and asked why the PM does not have a more
robust and visible program to assist the Roma. Fico said it
is useless to try to change the behavior of Roma over the age
of 30, and that all efforts, particularly housing and
education, should be concentrated on the young. With
reference to the program of the 18th century Austro-Hungarian
King Joseph to separate Roma children from their parents,
Fico posited that schools which keep the kids out of their
villages have the best chance of success "except that other
Europeans would crucify me if I expressed such an opinion
publicly." Fico said that on his return from vacation in
September, he would look for opportunities for the
Ambassador, himself, and their two sons to play soccer with
Roma children.

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PRESIDENT GASPAROVIC
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AFGHANISTAN
--------------

13. (C) Gasparovic reiterated his long-standing support for
robust NATO engagement in Afghanistan. He said that MoD is
currently reviewing options, and that he is strongly urging
engagement, including more rapid responses to specific
requests. The President apologized for not having helicopters
available for donation in response to a recent request. In
response to the idea of a Slovak AMT (see paragraph 4) the
President said it is an interesting idea, but that he would
defer to military experts.

KOSOVO
--------------

14. (C) Gasparovic maintains his hard line position on
Kosovo, noting that bilateral recognition would be impossible
for Slovakia. He suggested that Kosovo is a mess because of
the failed politics of a previous US Secretary of State
(Comment. Albright. End comment.) and bemoaned the lack of
action by the coalition in response to initial attacks on
Kosovar Serbs. Gasparovic said the future of both Kosovo and
Serbia is in the EU and said he would support their
integration.

TRANSPETROL
--------------

15. (C) Gasparovic was unaware of breaking Transpetrol
developments. He had expected Fico to "harvest the crop that
he had planted with Putin." The President,s preferred option
has always been Slovak government control.

WHITE HOUSE VISIT
--------------

16. (C) The Ambassador noted interest from the Slovak Embassy
in Washington for a November/December visit by Gasparovic to
the White House. Gasparovic said he hopes he will know if
this is possible before September. If a November/December
White House visit was realistic, Gasparovic said he would
turn his September UN visit over to PM Fico.

OVERSTAY
--------------

17. (C) The Ambassador noted that the two Slovaks who had
received U.S. tourist visas with referrals from him seemed to
have overstayed and are likely now illegally in the U.S. The
President was stunned but claimed he may have seen one
recently at the Bratislava airport. The Ambassador emphasized
that if the visitors overstayed, it would be an unfortunate
incident in light of the debate on the Visa Waiver Program.

NEW LAWS ON FORESTS

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18. (C) The President proudly mentioned his recent signing of
a New Law on Forests, and suggested the law is inspired by
similar protective measures in the US. (Note. Former PM
Dzurinda, who is leading a public campaign against the
anti-cyclist provisions of the law, told the Ambassador the
President would sign the bill because he is controlled by
"private hunting interests." End note.)

IRAQ
--------------

19. (C) The President asked whether the US congress is
prevailing over President Bush in the Iraq debate. The
Ambassador said it was unlikely that the Congress could
muster 60 votes in advance of the September Petraeus/Crocker
report, that President Bush is committed to a free Iraq and
progress is being made, for example in Anbar Province.
Gasparovic urged President Bush to hang tough, and said a
pull out would be disastrous. He repeated his support for an
international conference of the leaders of the coalition
partners to discuss the next steps. (Note. It is unclear
whether Gasparovic still considers Slovakia a coalition
partner. End note.)
VALLEE