RHETORIC IN BRATISLAVA OVERSHADOWS KUBIS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV YI KOC LO
SUBJECT: RHETORIC IN BRATISLAVA OVERSHADOWS KUBIS IN
BELGRADE

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 146


B. STATE 31796

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: FM Jan Kubis in Belgrade March 12 told Serb
leaders that there was no alternative to the Ahtisaari plan
and that he was confident of EU unity. Kubis was struck by
the Serbs' non-aggressive attitude and the lack of mention of
Russia, though others in the MFA believe this is a tactic
orchestrated by Russia itself. Slovak PolDir has
consultations in Moscow March 15-16 and promised a read-out;
in turn he would like to know the latest U.S. thinking on
Russia's stance. Kubis committed Slovakia to remain silent
on final status at the March 19 UNSC meeting on Kosovo, and
asked for advance notice of what the U.S. planned to say.
Meanwhile, the parliamentary foreign affairs committee
debated Kosovo final status March 14. Three parties (SDKU,
SNS, and KDH) agreed to draft a joint resolution, which
should be ready for consideration by the foreign affairs
committee March 22. Three other parties (Smer, HZDS, and
SMK) advocate "leaving diplomacy to the diplomats" and
probably will not support the resolution. Post launched
another round of meetings with party leaders to press the
need for a quick settlement fully supported by Slovakia in
the EU and UNSC. We will provide recommendations separately
regarding phone calls to Slovak politicians, but note that
Dzurinda's advisors believe Merkel would be the most
effective interlocutor with Dzurinda. End summary.

Kubis in Belgrade
--------------

2. (C) Foreign Minister Jan Kubis told the Ambassador March
14 that he found Serbian leaders open to his message during
his March 12 visit. He told Tadic and Kostunica that there
was no alternative to the Ahtisaari plan, and that he was
confident of EU unity in the end. The Serbian leadership is
expecting and waiting for the UNSCR on Kosovo, even though
they don't like it. Kubis reported that PM Kostunica told
him with a smile, "I have the impression Kosovo is in
Slovakia, based on what I see from your country." Kubis said
the Serbs were trying to buy time to get a better deal by
using legal and diplomatic efforts, i.e., lobbying UNSC and
UNGA members for the most concessions possible. Kubis told
the Serbs that Slovakia could be helpful on specific,
individual points, but would not seek to change the
fundamentals of the Ahtisaari plan.

Thoughts on Russia's Role
--------------

3. (C) Kubis said that the Serbian leaders were not
aggressive. They did not use strong rhetoric and did not
mention Russia, which he took to be a good sign. MFA PolDir
Miroslav Lajcak (strictly protect) later told us that he was
more cynical and believed this tactic was orchestrated by
Moscow. He characterized the March 13 Russian MFA statement
as "very bad, very hard." Lajcak theorized that the Russians
believe that if they give in now, they will be seen as "a
joke." They therefore feel compelled to block the process,
and will wait until the last possible moment for the U.S. to
beg them not to do so. Lajcak will be in Moscow for
consultations March 15-16 and promised to debrief DCM upon
his return to Bratislava. (Guidance request: In turn, we
would like to share with Lajcak our latest thinking on the
Russian position. Please advise.)

Kubis vs. Kasicky
--------------

4. (C) Kubis was livid at Defense Minister Frantisek
Kasicky's statement during his March 12 press conference with
visiting Serbian Defense Mininster Stankovic (ref a). He
said he phoned Kasicky with a strong message that he should
not presume to speak for the government on Kosovo because he
didn't know the state of play. Kubis is certain he has Prime
Minister Robert Fico's support on this issue, although he
still cannot tell us for certain where his boss will come
out. Kasicky said he had based his statement based on other
government positions he had seen in the media. Lajcak
speculated that in trying to do what he assumed would please
PM Fico, Kasicky had been "extremely damaging." (Comment: He
is right. Former PM Dzurinda's SDKU has been citing Kasicky
as supporting the SDKU line.) According to an MFA desk
officer who was present at the March 13 meeting between Kubis
and Stankovic, Kubis tried to set the record straight and
reiterated the points he had made in Belgrade. Stankovic
reportedly responded, "Whatever you finally decide, we won't
be angry with you."

Kubis on March 19 UNSC Discussion
--------------

5. (C) Per ref b, Ambassador urged Kubis to be either
supportive of Ahtisaari or silent at the March 19 UNSC
discussion on Kosovo. Kubis immediately understood the
message. He said that although Slovakia sometimes had
critical comments on UNMIK reports, Slovakia would say
nothing about final status negotiations. Given the expected
debate on Kosovo in the Slovak parliament March 20, he knows
what is at stake. (Request: Kubis very much wants to know
what we will say at the March 19 meeting. It would be useful
to have something we could pass to Kubis before he leaves for
Central Asia March 18.)

Politicians Have a Hey-Day
--------------

6. (C) The parliamentary foreign affairs committee met March
14 to discuss the government's foreign policy priorities for
2007 (as presented by Kubis) and debate the three draft
parliamentary resolutions on Kosovo (Kubis was present for
the first part of this debate, but after two hours had to
leave). Former PM and Slovak Christian and Democratic Union
(SDKU) leader Mikulas Dzurinda said he believed Slovakia
could move the EU on the Kosovo question, just as it had
moved the EU position on opening accession talks with
Croatia. Slovak National Party (SNS) MP Jozef Rydlo proposed
that SNS and SDKU consolidate their proposals into one united
statement that could be accepted by all parliamentary
parties. Christian Democrat Movement chair Pavol Hrusovsky
said that Slovakia must never accept an agreement that Serbia
does not agree to, emphasizing that being a responsible UNSC
member meant, at a minimum, abstaining. At the end of a
two-hour long heated discussion, SNS, SDKU, and the Christian
Democratic Movement (KDH) agreed to form a drafting committee
to work over the weekend on a consolidated resolution that
would be debated in the plenary session that begins March 20.
Dzurinda advisor Milan Jezovica told DCM that he expected
the drafting exercise to produce a resolution weaker than the
current SDKU draft. He said all agree the resolution would
not be binding, at least from a legal perspective.

Not All is Lost
--------------

7. (C) Smer MP Juraj Horvath stated simply and firmly that
parliament had no business discussing the issue, let alone
dictating what should be done. He said Smer's position was
to leave diplomacy to the diplomats at the MFA. MP and
former FM Zdenka Kramplova of the Movement for a Democratic
Slovakia (HZDS) said her party would not join onto the
drafting effort at this time, as the government and not the
parliament was responsible for foreign policy. Hungarian
Coalition Party (SMK) MP Jozef Berenyi criticized politicians
use of Kosovo to inflame anti-Hungarian sentiments among
Slovaks, and said Slovakia must unite with other EU countries
to support Ahtisaari's plan.

Comment: Next steps
--------------

8. (C) Following the March 14 debate, Post launched another
round of consultations with political party insiders to once
again press on the need for a quick settlement fully
supported by Slovakia in the EU and UNSC. We believe it is
necessary to shore up the resolve of Smer, HZDS, and SMK, and
express appreciation for the responsible stances they are
taking on this issue. Likewise, it is necessary to continue
expressing to members of SDKU, KDH, and SNS that their
rhetoric designed for internal political gain damages both
their image abroad and, more importantly, threatens stability
in the Balkans. During discussions March 15, SMK reiterated
its intention to continue expressing full support for
Ahtisaari and seek EU unity. KDH MP Fronc expressed grave
misgivings about Kosovo independence, but listened
attentively to our arguments and promised to discuss the
issue within the party. He said the parties would definitely
bring a resolution to the floor, but assured us it would be
non-binding. Jezovica said the most effective foreign
overture to Dzurinda to moderate his stance would come from
Chancellor Merkel, if she is so inclined.


9. (C) Dzurinda told media that he expects to have a
parliamentary resolution draft ready for consideration by the
foreign affairs committee March 22, though it is still
unclear what it will say. Nor is it clear when exactly it
will be on the plenary agenda, as Speaker Pavol Paska (Smer)
has been reluctant to allow the debate and could use
procedural tactics to delay. PM Fico told the Ambassador
that Smer, HZDS, and SMK had enough votes to block a
resolution supported by SNS, SDKU, and KDH. However, that
presumes that all MPs show up when they are supposed to and
vote strictly along party lines. FM Kubis has said privately
he does not fear a parliamentary debate or even a resolution,
as long as it is not binding and does not say Slovakia should
oppose any solution to which the Serbs do not agree. He
views it as "letting off steam." However, it could have the
effect of making Fico feel that he has been boxed into a
corner if it leads to an outpouring of public opinion against
the Ahtisaari plan for final status. Our message to all
leaders is that Slovakia cannot manifest its concern for the
Serbs or the desire to score political points through an
abstention at the UNSC. Anything other than a "yes" would
damage the country's interests, while doing nothing for the
Serbs.
VALLEE