SLOVAKIA'S DEBATE ON KOSOVO STILL SIMMERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000102

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV YI KOC LO
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA'S DEBATE ON KOSOVO STILL SIMMERING

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 87


B. FEB 17 HOH-VALLEE EMAIL

Classified By: CDA Lawrence Silverman for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: Kosovo remains a delicate topic in Slovak
politics, with both opposition and government parties vying
to show the strongest support for Serbia, and the MFA
struggling to maintain room to maneuver. The final say on
Slovakia's position will come from PM Fico. Key will be
whether he can be persuaded to look beyond his normal
political horizon -- somewhere within Slovakia's borders --
and instead defer to the need to help the international
community settle this problem now and to avoid damage to
Slovakia's image abroad. End summary.

President Gasparovic Cools Tempers
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2. (C) After both the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union
(SDKU) and the Slovak National Party (SNS) submitted
resolutions for parliamentary approval 2/12 that called for
the rejection of any final status for Kosovo to which Serbia
did not agree (ref A),President Ivan Gasparovic summoned
political party leaders to the presidential palace to discuss
the issue. Although Gasparovic himself has a pro-Serb bias
and personally opposes independence for Kosovo, his
intervention served to calm heads and buy time. The
political parties decided to wait until parliament resumes
its regular session March 20, rather than calling for an
extraordinary session on Kosovo. In public statements, party
leaders stressed the need for a united Slovak position, and
voiced support for the continuation of negotiations led by
S/E Martti Ahtisaari. MFA PolDir Miroslav Lajcak told DCM
2/15 that Gasparovic had been quite helpful.

Opposition Leader Dzurinda Still Won't Budge
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador explained U.S. views on Kosovo to SDKU
Chair (and former PM) Mikulas Dzurinda 2/14, arguing that a
binding parliamentary resolution requiring Slovakia to vote
against independence for Kosovo at the UNSC would alienate
Slovakia from its transatlantic partners and further
destabilize the Balkans. Dzurinda argued emotionally that he
felt in his heart Ahtisaari's plan would not work, and would
radicalize the region. Dzurinda clearly relished an upcoming
fight in Parliament that would give him the chance to take on
the Fico government. He admitted that perhaps the language
of his draft resolution was too strong and could be modified,
but would not agree to withdraw it. In a subsequent
conversation with EUR A/S Fried, Dzurinda expressed concern
about use of Kosovo as a precedent in other conflicts,
humiliating treatment of Serbia, and implications for the
Hungarian minority in Slovakia (ref B). Lajcak told us 2/15
that he had spoken to both former FM Eduard Kukan and former
advisor to the PM Milan Jezovica, and that Jezovica was very
stubborn. Strong collaborators in the past, they had
exchanged sharp words over this issue. We also heard that
Kubis had tried talking to Dzurinda directly, but made no
progress.

MFA Working Hard to Persuade Public and Politicians
-------------- --------------


4. (U) Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Jan Kubis continued his
diplomatic efforts on the homefront. In a 2/13 op-ed in
daily "Pravda," he argued that Slovakia must be a responsible
international partner. At a pre-scheduled 2/13 talk on
Slovakia's foreign policy priorities hosted by think tank
Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA),he asked
rhetorically why Slovak politicians were so worked up about
Kosovo? He recognized the high level of empathy and
friendship toward Serbia, but also urged that Slovaks not
make decisions based on speculation about the end result of
status negotiations. He railed against politicians who would
"tie the government's hands." He frankly said that it
reflected a tremendous lack of self-confidence on the part of
Slovaks to have an irrational fear of some "precedent" for
the Hungarian minority. He added that Slovaks had no reason
to be insecure, and it was time Slovaks "got over it." The
unique circumstances of the Serb government's massive
violation of human rights that led to NATO intervention could
never be applied in Slovakia. EU unity is crucial.


5. (C) Lajcak said that Slovak Ambassador to Washington
Rastislav Kacer had written a very good, strong cable home
after his 2/13 meeting with DASes Pekala and DiCarlo, and had
also called Kukan and Jezovica. The message of the MFA to
SDKU leaders has been consistent: "Do not tie our hands." On
the cocktail circuit, MFA officials are telling concerned
diplomats that FM Kubis is working on the domestic situation
and that everything is in control and will work out fine.
Privately, however, Lajcak admitted that Kubis is a diplomat,
not a politician, and he underestimated the domestic
difficulties. Lajcak said the MFA does not know what to
expect, including from PM Fico himself, and that the
situation is NOT under control. He expressed gratitude for
U.S. support and intervention with the politicians.


6. (C) Lajcak was also glad that respected leaders of the NGO
community, such as (former ambassador to the U.S.) Martin
Butora of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO) and Milan
Nic of Pontis Foundation, had given helpful media interviews.
Lajcak expressed frustration that in the furor over Kosovo,
no one speaks about Slovak interests ("we're more Serbian
than the Serbs"); no one speaks about Slovakia's
duties/responsibilities as EU, NATO, UNSC members, and its
relations with the most important strategic partners; and
that a complete lack of self-confidence still exists
regarding Hungarians.


7. (C) Following up on Lajcak's earlier message to us that
Serbia's bottom line was "No UN membership for Kosovo and no
change in Serbia's borders," he suggested that UN membership
is symbolic for Kosovo, but not really necessary. More
important is membership in other international organization
and international financial institutions. Perhaps there was
room for flexibility on the timing of such memberships that
would undermine the Slovak political parties' argument that
Serbs were being "humiliated." On borders, Lajcak firmly
believes that smart lawyers should be able to find the right
language to solve this issue.

Concerned Diplomats
--------------


8. (C) Both the German Ambassador and the UK Charge d'Affairs
consulted us 2/16 on next steps. They agree that demarching
the MFA on Kosovo is not what is needed. The question is how
to influence PM Fico, who in the end can make or break the
MFA's position on Kosovo at the UNSC. The UK embassy is
recommending a Blair-Fico pull-aside at the March 8-9 meeting
of the EU Council (prime minister's meeting) but only if
Merkel will do it first. Both Blair and Merkel, we have
heard from diplomats here, have been loathe to meet
bilaterally with Fico. In addition, the UK embassy is
recommending a senior-level call (FCO) to Dzurinda to
reinforce U.S. efforts. Our British colleagues here have
begun to engage with relevant politicians, and the German
Ambassador is hosting a local meeting of the Quint 2/26 to
discuss strategy.
VALLEE