Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BOGOTA7702
2007-10-25 21:43:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bogota
Cable title:  

VALLE DE CAUCA: CLEAN ELECTIONS EXPECTED DESPITE

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREF PREL PTER VZ CO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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P 252143Z OCT 07
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INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7812
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 9463
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 5557
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 0750
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 6190
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 4139
RHMCSUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 007702 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREF PREL PTER VZ CO
SUBJECT: VALLE DE CAUCA: CLEAN ELECTIONS EXPECTED DESPITE
WORRIES OVER NARCO INFLUENCE

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 007702

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREF PREL PTER VZ CO
SUBJECT: VALLE DE CAUCA: CLEAN ELECTIONS EXPECTED DESPITE
WORRIES OVER NARCO INFLUENCE

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary. We expect peaceful elections in most races
in Valle de Cauca, but there is widespread concern that drug
money may be behind some campaigns. The FARC is unlikely to
disrupt elections, but is reportedly sponsoring candidates
around Cali. New criminal groups and ex-paramilitaries
maintain a relatively small presence, and are not involved in
politics. The GOC will provide security at all 240 polling
places, and is protecting threatened candidates,
investigating campaign finance violations, and randomly
transferring election officials to prevent fraud. End
summary.

--------------
Valle Background: Drugs and Money
--------------

2. (U) Valle de Cauca remains an important link in the most
active drug corridor in Colombia. The FARC, drug cartels,
and new criminal groups move product from coca-growing
regions in Meta through Valle and out through the Pacific
coast port of Buenaventura. All have tried to buy
politicians and other public officials to ease the flow of
drugs in the region. Comparing the system to "The
Godfather," Monsignor Juan Zarasti (whose predecessor in
Cali, Msr. Durate, was assassinated by the cartels on March
16, 2002),told us the cartels historically attempted to buy
journalists, police, and local officials in a position to
assist "by looking the other way."


3. (C) Governor Angelino Garzon, Cali Mayor Ramiro Tafur,
and Catholic church, Police, and National Registrar officials
told us drug money may be behind a number of campaigns in the
Department (mostly in northern Valle). There are also rumors
of vote buying and dirty money connected to the gubernatorial
campaign of Juan Carlos Abadia. Abadia, 28, has already been
a Valle deputy, Cali councilman, and president of the Cali
city council. His father, Carlos Herney Abadia, went to jail
in the President Samper narco campaign financing scandal in
the 1990s, and has since worked with Senator Juan Carlos

Martinez (Convergencia Cuidania) to build a strong political
machine. Abadia junior told us he is not responsible for the
sins of his father and denied any links to vote buying or
narcotraffickers. Garzon, Tafur and Police officials told us
they were not aware of any investigations against candidate
Abadia.

--------------
FARC: "All Forms of Struggle"
--------------

4. (C) The FARC is unlikely to disrupt the election, but the
group maintains a strong presence in Valle. The 30th Front
and the "Miller Perdomo" and "Manuel Cepeda Vargas" urban
columns operate in the highlands around Cali and in
Buenaventura. General Jesus Gomez, Police Commander in
Valle, told us the FARC historically did not attempt attacks
on election day, but would likely harass voters or set off
small bombs in mountainous zones to gain some media
attention. Zaraste said that in rural areas, the FARC run
their own candidates. The group then extorts funds and
information on security force operations from small town
officials.


5. (C) Ricardo Salazar (Colombia Democratica),leading
candidate for mayor in Florida, told us the FARC is running
its own candidate for mayor--Wilson Lulico of the Indigenous
Movement. The FARC is demanding that the Florida and Pradera
municipalities "demilitarized" as a condition for talks on a
possible humanitarian exchange of FARC-held hostages for FARC
prisoners in Colombian jails. Salazar said mayors in areas
of FARC influence are normally forced to give 10 percent of
the city budget (USD 5-8,000 per month for Florida) to the
FARC through fake salaries or contracts. Salazar appealed
for international observation of the elections to avoid FARC
coercion and fraud. He hopes the increased security provided
by the recent arrival of a military "High Mountain" battalion
would allow him to resist FARC demands, if elected.

--------------
Threat from Ex-Paras Minimal

--------------

6. (C) Monsignor Zarasti told us that perhaps the only
positive element of the FARC and narco influence in Valle is
that emerging armed groups and ex-paramilitaries have a
minimal presence --except in Buenaventura--and are not
involved in politics. Narcos cooperate with some
former-paras near the end of the drug distribution chain in
Buenaventura and fight over drug routes with the FARC, but
are not a threat in most of the department.

--------------
GOC Efforts Against Violence and Fraud
--------------

7. (C) Despite the drug and FARC threats to the Valle
political system, most contacts expect a vast majority of
races to be, as Zaraste put it, "more or less clean and
peaceful." The GOC will provide security for 100 percent of
the 240 polling places in Valle (176 urban and 76 rural) for
the first time in memory. Police are providing 24/7
protection to 111 political headquarters, and 18 candidates
have full-time security details.


8. (C) The Registrar and Police are working to prevent
fraud. In September, national election authorities randomly
transferred key local election officials to other regions to
avoid corruption, replacing them with officials from other
parts of the country. The Valle Representative from the
National Registrar's office confirmed that the Valle
Departmental Registrar immediately resigned his position when
told of his imminent transfer and went to work on the Abadia
gubernatorial campaign. The Registrar and police are also
investigating possible violations of campaign spending
limits. Major Juan Rodriguez, intelligence chief for the
Valle Police, told us he expects to seek indictments against
drug-backed front companies involved in campaigns, though he
admitted that the candidates insulated themselves against
direct contact with their illegal backers.

--------------
Key Race 1: Cali Mayor = Good News
--------------

9. (C) The next mayor of Cali will be either Fransisco
"Kiko" Lloreda (independent--with Conservative roots),or
Jorge Ivan Ospina (independent--with Polo roots). Lloreda,
who unsuccessfully ran for mayor of Cali in 1999 and 2003,
led for most of the race but was tied with Ospina in an
October 20 poll. Both Lloreda (whose family owns the El
Espectador newspaper),and Ospina (a respected physician
whose father was an M-19 rebel leader) are widely considered
honest with solid backgrounds to manage the USD 700 million
Cali annual budget and 14,000 city employees. Still, local
election officials announced a preliminary investigation
against Ospina for possible vote buying after taxi drivers in
Cali were each offered USD 15 and a raffle ticket for a new
car to promote Ospina's campaign.

--------------
Key Race 2: Valle Governor = "Depressing"
--------------

10. (C) Barring major surprise, Abadia will be the next
governor of Valle. Polls show him with wide leads. Three
others, Fabiola Perdomo (whose husband was a Valle Deputy
killed by the FARC in June),Fransisco Murgueitio
(Conservative--ex Senator),and Maria del Socorro Bustamante
(Liberal) have consistently polled 10-12 percent support.
The three underdogs failed in their attempt to unite behind a
single candidate. Governor Garzon, who in his term has
increased annual Department income from USD 350 million to
650 million, reduced debt from USD 330 million to 160
million, and expanded annual public investment from USD 21
million to 408 million in 2006, told us he was "depressed"
over the prospect of an Abadia victory. "He will have to pay
back his supporters," he said.

Brownfield