Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BOGOTA6894
2007-09-20 23:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bogota
Cable title:  

ELN "CONFUSED" AS PARTIES PREPARE FOR TALKS IN

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL PTER PREF VZ CO 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 006894 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER PREF VZ CO
SUBJECT: ELN "CONFUSED" AS PARTIES PREPARE FOR TALKS IN
CARACAS

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 006894

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER PREF VZ CO
SUBJECT: ELN "CONFUSED" AS PARTIES PREPARE FOR TALKS IN
CARACAS

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Peace Commissioner Restrepo told us the last
round of ELN talks in Havana (August 20-24) made it clear the
Cubans would not press the ELN to make a deal, leading the
GOC to accept the ELN's long-standing request to shift the
talks to Caracas. The GOC thinks President Chavez wants to
achieve rapid progress in the talks to enhance his image, and
hopes he will push the ELN to accept a ceasefire. Still,
Restrepo said the ELN is paralyzed, with ELN leaders who
favor peace unwilling to break with radical, criminal fronts
that control the fighters. He complained about the ELN's
manipulation of various international peace groups such as
Colombia University's Aldo Civico and Pax Christi . The GOC
now supports these groups' direct participation at the
negotiating table, believing it will make their actions more
transparent. End Summary

--------------
Peace process with ELN in Cuba was exhausted
--------------

2. (C) Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo told us
September 13 that the last round of peace talks with the ELN
in Havana (August 20-24) achieved no progress. Senior Cuban
officials did not believe the process would produce results,
so they distanced themselves from it. Lower-level Cuban
officials helped the ELN prepare its agenda but never pressed
the group to agree to a ceasefire. It is impossible,
Restrepo said, to use the Cubans as a lever against ELN.


3. (C) Restrepo said the ELN wanted to shift talks from
Havana to Caracas because it believes it will have more
political space, including opportunities to exploit internal
differences within the GOV and the Venezuelan left. ELN
leaders will also be safe and closer to Colombia. He said
the GOC had blocked the shift to Caracas for months, but
changed its view after Cuba refused to press the ELN.
Uribe's acceptance of Chavez' role with the FARC sealed the
switch to Caracas. The commissioner noted that even though

the ELN is happy with the change of venue, ELN Central
Committee (COCE) member and main negotiator Pablo Beltran
refused to participate in a planned September 7 meeting with
Restrepo and Chavez in Caracas. Restrepo said Beltran needed
to consult first with the COCE, showing the ELN still lacks a
political agenda or negotiating strategy.

--------------
ELN Lacks Internal Consensus
--------------

4. (C) Restrepo said the ELN lacks an internal consensus on
a way forward, since it does not have a clear vision of the
political role it would play in a democratic system. Many
ELN members continue to see themselves in the Leninist
conception of a "vanguard". Their goal remains to exploit
the peace process to rebuild public support for clandestine
networks inside Colombia, especially in urban areas. They
continue to hope for a rapprochement with the FARC, and want
to exploit the Polo Democratico Party and other leftist
parties to advance the armed struggle. This radical view is
supported by ELN front leaders in Arauca, Choco, Narino, and
Cauca who are deeply involved in narcotrafficking. The COCE
is paralyzed with ELN leaders who favor peace unwilling to
break with radical front leaders who control the fighters.


5. (C) Pax Christi officials Marianne Moor and Rodrigo
Rojas, who met with Restrepo, Beltran, and other ELN
negotiators (August 17-21),agreed the ELN is split over
whether to continue drug trafficking and kidnapping. The GOC
and ELN invited Pax Christi to sit at the table for the next
round of talks in Caracas to facilitate hostage discussions.
Beltran and Galan told the Pax officials they would prepare a
"census" of ELN hostages (dead or alive) for Pax Christi by
the end of September. The ELN hopes to use the census to
invite numerous countries to be "international partners" in
exchange for the release of "some" hostages. Moor told us
the ELN wants U.S. participation in the process, and is eager
to be removed from U.S. and European terrorism lists. Still,
they said many ELN front commanders have no interest in
dropping drugs and kidnapping.

-------------- --
Chavez: ELN Success Can Shore Up Domestic Image
-------------- --

6. (C) Restrepo said the GOC believes Chavez wants rapid
progress in the ELN talks to enhance his image as he deals
with constitutional reform, economic difficulties, and
unification of his party at home. Venezuelan popular
discontent with ELN kidnappings inside Venezuela (25 victim
families requested to meet with the GOC) creates another
incentive for Chavez to press the ELN agree to a ceasefire.
Restrepo added that Venezuelan involvement also offers the
chance to explore new solutions to the ELN's refusal to
concentrate its forces as part of a ceasefire accord. He
said Chavez likes a GOC proposal that ELN leaders and
mid-level commanders concentrate at a site on the
Colombia-Venezuela border. Even if Chavez cannot produce a
peace deal, the GOC hopes failure would prompt him to close
the ELN's political space in Venezuela.

--------------
Cuba-Venezuela Rivalry?
--------------

7. (C) Restrepo said the Cuba-Venezuela rivalry is strong.
The Cubans could block progress out of spite. The Cubans, he
noted, torpedoed a Mexican initiative with the ELN in
2004-05, forcing the ELN to pull out of talks after Mexico
voted against Cuba on human rights at the UN. The GOC viewed
other would-be participants in the process, such as Aldo
Civico of Colombia University, Vicenc Fisas of Barcelona
University, and local analyst Leon Valencia as problematic,
because the ELN uses them to project a reasonable image
outside of the negotiating table. The ELN also tries to
access foreign funding through these groups. Still, Restrepo
said the GOC believes it would best to incorporate these
groups into the negotiating table to make their actions
transparent. He urged Civico on September 14 to ask the ELN
to support his inclusion in the talks, saying the GOC would
approve such a request.
Brownfield