ELN PEACE TALKS STUCK OVER VERIFICATION AND ELN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 005789

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PREF PHUM CO
SUBJECT: ELN PEACE TALKS STUCK OVER VERIFICATION AND ELN
DISARRAY

REF: BOGOTA 5118

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. GOC-ELN peace talks are stuck over the ELN's
refusal to accept the GOC terms for cease-fire monitoring and
hostage release verification mechanisms. The ELN is looking
for a new strategy to move the talks forward. Peace process
"guarantor" Akerman is trying to convince ELN leaders to
break the talks loose by declaring a unilateral cease-fire
and release of ELN-held hostages. Catholic Church officials
are also looking for a way to break the impasse, but
privately doubt the ELN can commit to a settlement, citing
the recent Church difficulties in trying to free ELN kidnap
victims, growing ELN participation in the drug trade, and ELN
re-mining to protect coca fields. End Summary.
ELN Talks Stuck on Verification
===============================

2. (C) The July 14 round of peace talks in Havana between
the GOC and National Liberation Army (ELN) stalled over GOC
demands that the ELN agree to strict cease-fire monitoring
and hostage release verification terms. Peace process
"guarantor" Moritz Akerman told us the ELN had agreed to a
six-month cessation of hostilities and to release ELN-held
kidnapping victims, but would not agree to identify ELN front
locations, notify the GOC of ELN fighter movement, and
identify ELN urban front members--all firm GOC demands.
Akerman said the ELN Central Committee (COCE) members were
frustrated with what they saw as the GOC's hard-line
position, felt they had already put their best cards
(cease-fire, kidnap release) on the table, and were seeking
new negotiating strategies.

"Guarantor" Looking for Openings
================================

3. (C) To move the talks forward, Akerman said he had
formulated with COCE member Francisco Galan a confidential
proposal for the ELN to declare a temporary, unilateral
cease-fire and release of kidnap victims. Akerman briefed
his proposal to OAS Support Mission for Peace in Colombia
(OAS/MAPP) Director Sergio Caramagna on August 2, who
reportedly agreed to fund Akerman's gambit to pitch his idea
to ELN leaders. Akerman said he will try to sell his ideas
to COCE member and ELN negotiator Pablo Beltran in Havana
starting August 8. If Beltran and the COCE accept the
proposal, he would return to Bogota to inform other
guarantors, the international community, and the GOC before
the ELN made its plan public. Akerman was not optimistic the
full ELN leadership would agree to the proposal. The ELN was
increasingly fractured, with many ELN fronts moving into drug
trafficking and others suffering combat losses from the GOC
and FARC.

Catholic Church - Pessimistic Outlook
=====================================

4. (C) The Catholic Church's representative to the ELN peace
talks, Father Dario Echeverri, told us he doubted the ELN's
commitment to peace talks. Despite recent optimism voiced by
some commentators like leftist El Tiempo columnist Leon
Valencia that a deal is near, Echeverri said recent
experiences trying to negotiate the release of three ELN-held
kidnap victims (which led him to believe that COCE members,
including Galan, were profiting from kidnappings),growing
ELN involvement in the drug trade, and ELN re-mining to
protect coca fields made him pessimistic the ELN could reach
internal agreement on a verifiable peace deal. He said FARC
opposition to a peace deal and the "regional environment"
(leftist governments in Venezuela and Ecuador) were
additional obstacles. Echeverri said COCE members Beltran
and Juan Cuellar wanted to call a plenary meeting, including
ELN urban fronts, to obtain a new mandate to negotiate.
Echeverri added he was working with a small group on ideas to
break the current impasse.
Nichols