CENTRIST GAVIRIA CONSOLIDATES CONTROL OF LIBERALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004157

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER PREF CO
SUBJECT: CENTRIST GAVIRIA CONSOLIDATES CONTROL OF LIBERALS
AS PARTY PREPARES FOR LOCAL AND NATIONAL CAMPAIGNS

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer - Reasons 1.5 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Former President and Liberal Party chief
Cesar Gaviria marginalized leftist elements and strengthened
his hold of the opposition party in a recent Liberal
congress, preparing the party to fight October local and 2010
national elections on a centrist platform. The change is
good news for the U.S: Gaviria lobbied to win a party vote
to support the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA),and
key Liberals say the party should be more receptive to U.S.
counterdrug and counterterrorism policies. Still, supporters
of Colombia's once-dominant Liberal Party have their
loyalties divided between the Liberals and several offshoots.
Gaviria's success in encouraging dissident Liberals to "come
home" will go a long way in determining his party's success
in 2010. End Summary

Cesar Gavira Takes Control
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2. (C) Former president and OAS secretary general Cesar
Gaviria emerged from an April 27-29 Liberal Party congress in
Medellin with firm control over the party machinery and a
mandate to promote centrist policies as the party gears up
for October municipal and 2010 national elections. Almost
1,300 delegates re-elected Gaviria party chief with almost 75
percent of the vote. The congress also gave Gaviria the
authority to choose candidates for key mayor and governors
races in October, bar those with questionable backgrounds
from running in all races, and to control Party finances.
Gaviria has already barred local politicians in the
previously paramilitary-dominated capital of Cesar from
running under the Liberal banner.

"Left" Out in the Cold
--------------


3. (C) Gaviria's victory was a defeat for three-time
presidential loser Horacio Serpa and the Liberal left wing,
which represents between ten and twenty percent of party rank
and file. Still, the left wing block includes prominent
Liberals, including party spokesman Juan Cristo, and Senators
Piedad Cordoba, Camilo Sanchez, and Hector Rojas In May,
Serpa announced he is running for governor of his home state,
Santander, effectively sidelining him from national politics
whether he wins or loses. Several Liberals told poloff
Cordoba and a small number of other leftists would be more at
home in the Polo Democratico Party, but the new "Ley de
Bancadas" prohibits them from switching parties while in
office.

Prospects for Local Elections
--------------


4. (U) Liberals are upbeat about their chances in the
October elections, but admit they will need to form alliances
in many of the most critical races--like the Bogota mayor's
campaign--to win. The Party now holds 228 mayoral and 12
governors seats, by far the most of any party, and Liberals
consistently poll as the leading party in Colombia. Still,
many of those identifying themselves as Liberals vote for new
parties made up of former Liberals, such as the U Party or
Cambio Radical. The Liberals and Cambio Radical announced
they will support independent candidate Enrique Penalosa (a
former Liberal and Bogota mayor from 1998-2002) in the Bogota
mayor's race. Liberal candidates for other races will be
chosen in July 8 "consultas" (primaries); the party will
field candidates in almost all important races in the
country.

A View Towards 2010 Presidential Elections
--------------


5. (C) After three consecutive defeats in presidential
elections, including a devastating third place finish in
2006, Gaviria is shifting the Liberals to the center in
anticipation of October and the 2010 presidential elections.
He recognizes Colombia's electorate is predominantly
center-right, and does not want to lock the party into a
dispute with the Polo Democratico for the left's 25 percent
share of the electorate. Many Liberals say Gaviria is
seeking a rapprochement with President Uribe and/or Cambio
Radical leader German Vargas Lleras (both former Liberals).

Gaviria told polcouns the Liberal Party decision to support
the Free Trade Agreement had improved relations between the
Liberals and the GOC. Some analysts expect Uribe and the

Liberals to close ranks as 2010 approaches. Beside Vargas
Lleras, other potential candidates with former Liberal ties
include Vice President Francisco Santos, Defense Minister
Juan Manuel Santos, and Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo.
Gaviria's success in stitching the Liberal coalition back
together will go a long way in determining his party's
success in 2010.

Liberal - USG Interests Converging
--------------


6. (C) Gaviria cannot completely ignore his party's left
wing, but he is well-positioned to continue his party's move
to the center. After intensive lobbying by Gaviria,
approximately two-thirds of the Party's legislators voted on
May 23 to support the FTA. Liberal leaders called this an
important victory for the pro-free trade Gaviria's efforts to
develop a moderate policy agenda. They told poloff a more
centrist Liberal party is likely to develop positions more
closely in line with USG interests on counterdrug operations,
counterterrorism, extradition, and trade.
Drucker