MODERATE KYRGYZ ANALYSIS OF BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000830

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KPAO KG
SUBJECT: MODERATE KYRGYZ ANALYSIS OF BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
AND THE BASE

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1. (SBU) Summary: In an interview with AKIpress that was
picked up by other media outlets, political commentator
Valentin Bogatyrev analyzed growing anti-American sentiment
and opposition to the Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan. He said
there were base-related reasons for the concerns, but that
certain groups were exploiting these concerns to fan
"anti-American hysteria." Bogatyrev also suggested that the
U.S. was "ceding its position" in Central Asia, and that the
"inadequate response" of the U.S. to incidents at the base
had been devastating for Kyrgyz attitudes toward the U.S.
Bogatyrev, the former director of International Institute of
Strategic Studies at the Kyrgyz presidential administration,
remains well connected to both the government and the
opposition in Kyrgyzstan. He is a regular contact of the
Embassy, and his views often reflect or anticipate the
official GOKG view. Against a backdrop of relentlessly
negative reporting in the Kyrgyz media, we believe
Bogatyrev's more moderate analysis is worth considering as we
put greater efforts to combating misinformation and negative
spin and managing Kyrgyz expectations regarding the base.
End Summary.

Real Mistakes and Hype
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2. (SBU) On May 28, analyst Valentin Bogatyrev gave an
interview to web-based AKIpress in which he discussed growing
negative attitudes toward the U.S. in Kyrgyzstan. The
article, headlined "U.S. Has Made Obvious Mistakes in its
Central Asia Strategy," stated that the negative attitudes
resulted from both actual reasons and intentional fanning of
sentiments. Bogatyrev said the public had concerns related
to the Manas Coalition Airbase and how long it would remain
in Kyrgyzstan. He said that despite years of efforts, the
situation in Afghanistan remained unstable, giving rise to
questions whether the military strategy there was effective.
The continued instability also led to an impression that some
benefited from the situation, including those making money
from selling arms and from reconstruction, and drug
traffickers. He said the public needed estimates about
meeting benchmarks to allow curtailing military operations in
Afghanistan, thus determining the duration of the base in
Kyrgyzstan.


3. (SBU) Bogatyrev said that the Kyrgyz people had concerns
about the base SOFA because they were not sure about the
safety of the base following recent incidents. In addition,
the public had little information about the benefits from the
base because of the lack of transparency surrounding payments
and other benefits. Comparing Manas to the Russian airbase
at Kant, he said it was not clear why one base would stay for
free (Kant),while another paid rents (Manas),if both bases
were needed for the security of the country. But since the
country had grown used to begging, he said, the day would
come when picketers would go to the Russian base demanding
payments.

U.S. Playing into the Hands of its Rivals
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4. (SBU) Bogatyrev said that the current "anti-American
hysteria" worked to the interests of those who did not like
the presence of an American base in the country -- Russia,
China, and Uzbekistan. He said that Russia and Uzbekistan
were interested in restricting American influence,
particularly on democratic and electoral processes.
Representatives of those countries did not have to organize
the anti-American campaign themselves, however, because the
driving force behind the campaign was the "Sodrujestvo"
party, a party known for its pro-Russian bias and its
commitment to the ideals of the USSR. (Note: and also
thought to be funded by Russia. End note.)

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5. (SBU) Bogatyrev lamented that the anti-American campaign
was able to use recent base-related incidents, particularly
the December shooting (of a Kyrgyz truck driver by a U.S.
airman). The shooting had caused a lot of negative
sentiment, and there was a question whether Russian circles
were exploiting the issue. Referring to Kyrgyz complaints
about the airman's "immunity" from prosecution in Kyrgyzstan,
Bogatyrev noted that jurisdiction was determined by the SOFA,
and that the U.S. had experience in punishing military
members who committed offenses overseas. But, he said, "we
can only hope that justice will prevail, and we have a right
to demand that justice is done,"

Russia Isn't Winning; U.S. Is Losing
--------------


6. (SBU) On regional politics, Bogatyrev argued that Russia
was not increasing its position, but the U.S. was ceding
influence in Central Asia. Except for Russian attempts to
retain its energy monopoly, Russian capital was giving way to
Kazakh capital, and Russian goods to Chinese goods. That
Kyrgyz MPs would raise the base issue after a trip to Moscow
reflected more their "adaptability" rather than increasing
Russian influence. The Americans, on the other hand, have
been ceding influence themselves. The first reason was
because of mistakes in their Central Asia strategy, evident
in Tashkent, where the American base was evicted and the
geopolitical orientation of the government changed; in
Bishkek, where the change in power resulted in a more rigid
policy toward the U.S.; and in Astana, where the energy
market turned out to be diversified, with a strong presence
of China. The second reason had to do with the aftermath of
the Iraq war. When the war started, Kyrgyzstan did not
approve of the American invasion. Now that it is clear to
everyone, including the Americans, that the war was a
mistake, any hint that Manas airbase might be used for
another mission provokes a strong response, he said.

U.S.: Penny Wise, Pound Foolish
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7. (SBU) Bogatyrev concluded that the American response to
the shooting and other base incidents has been inadequate.
He said the American side "follows the logic of minimizing
material expenses." Such an approach may be good in
business, but it has been devastating for the attitude in
Kyrgyzstan toward Americans. Instead of seeing the U.S. as a
friend and country providing assistance, people see the U.S.
as a rude guest. The resulting damage to the U.S. image is
enormous compared to the "saving on compensations."
"Defending the interests of the base (in this way),the
American side causes immeasurably greater damage to the
interests of their country and to its image."
YOVANOVITCH