KYRGYZ POLITICAL ROUNDUP: PRESSURE ON BASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000549

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ POLITICAL ROUNDUP: PRESSURE ON BASE
MOUNTING; AKAYEVA UNDER HOUSE ARREST

REF: A. 06 BISHKEK 1722

B. BISHKEK 528

C. BISHKEK 518

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Kyrgyz political developments this week
focused on Manas Airbase, as well as parliamentary candidate
Bermet Akayeva and opposition leader Felix Kulov. On the
base, PM Atambayev said "steps would be taken" to review the
Manas Airbase agreement in response to calls for further
government action regarding the December shooting death of
Alexander Ivanov. Also, the chairman of the parliamentary
committee reviewing the base agreement said a decision on the
base would be made by May 25. He also told reporters that he
had "no doubts" that the U.S. would use the Airbase to launch
an attack against Iran, if military actions were initiated.
An investigation into a May 7 accident that resulted in the
death of a Kyrgyz pedestrian has focused on an Amcit
contractor who works at the Base.


2. (SBU) Summary continued: Meanwhile, former President
Askar Akayev's daughter and parliamentary by-election
candidate Bermet Akayeva was placed under house arrest May 5
after being hastily indicted by the Prosecutor General for
inciting "mass disorder" during the April 29 parliamentary
by-elections. Residents of the Kemin parliamentary district
claim that law enforcement officials have intimidated and
arrested several pro-Akayeva supporters, and that tensions in
Kemin are intensifying. Separately, Felix Kulov convened a
meeting of opposition supporters on May 5, and vowed to
reunite the opposition to initiate new demonstrations if
neither the president nor government resigns, and the if
parliament is not dissolved by May 20. Later, opposition
members discussed an October timeframe for renewed protests.
End summary.

AIRBASE BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT
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3. (SBU) PM Almaz Atambayev said publicly that steps would be
taken to "review" the Manas Airbase agreement following calls
from the President's Human Rights Commission for further
government action regarding the shooting death of Alexander
Ivanov. The calls followed recent public disclosure that the
U.S. airman involved in the shooting had returned to the U.S.
in March. The Chairman of that Commission, Tursunbek Akun,
said that the government and parliament should reconsider the
terms of the agreement -- specifically the legal status of
base personnel -- to address the still unresolved issues
surrounding the death of Ivanov (reftel A). Akun added that
if Ivanov's family were not properly compensated by the
United States, the Kyrgyz Government would need to cover the
family's loss.


4. (SBU) On May 11, MP Rashid Tagayev, Chairman of the
parliamentary defense, security, law and order, and
information policy committee, told the press that a decision
about the base's future would be made by May 25.
Parliamentary discussion of operations have been ongoing
since Airman Hatfield's reported departed the country.
Tagayev also told reporters that he had "no doubts" that the
U.S. would use the Airbase to launch an attack against Iran,
if military actions were initiated. He added that Kyrgyzstan
could be caught in the crossfire, since Tehran would be more
capable of responding to a U.S. attack than Iraq.


5. (C) U.S. Manas Airbase civilian contractor Jason Friend
and his Kyrgyz wife, Olga Kolko, have retained counsel as MVD
officials continue their investigation of the May 7
automobile accident that resulted in the death of a Kyrgyz

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pedestrian (reftel B). Investigators have been analyzing the
couple's car, but there does not appear to be much focus on
finding other vehicles reportedly involved in the hit and run
incident. Attempts by local embassy employees to inquire
about witness statements from the scene of the accident went
unanswered by the lead Kyrgyz investigator. One eyewitness
now reportedly claims that he saw the American at the wheel.
Media accounts state that Kolko,s car hit the pedestrian
based on damage to the vehicle as well as the nature of the
injuries. Embassy observation of the vehicle only revealed
minor damage to a headlight. Media also continues to refer
to the Amcit as a "U.S. Serviceman;" a discrepancy that may
be due either to poor translation of the term "contractor" or
biased reporting.

AKAYEVA SILENCED
--------------


6. (SBU) Following the Supreme Court's ruling barring Bermet
Akayeva from running in the April 29 parliamentary
by-election, and an overnight interrogation by Ministry of
Interior (MVD) officials, Akayeva was indicted by the
Prosecutor General for inciting "mass disorder" and placed
under house arrest. Her lawyer told the press that Akayeva
was charged with obstruction of justice; contempt of court;
and deliberate destruction of documents -- the latter handed
down for allegedly tearing up the Kemin district court's
negative ruling regarding her candidacy (reftel C). While
under house arrest, Akayeva has reportedly been forbidden to
communicate with the outside world by telephone or e-mail.
Her lawyer has lodged a formal complaint with the Prosecutor
General and court. Kemin residents claim that, as a result
of the government's actions against pro-Akayeva supporters,
tensions in Kemin have intensified. Some have also compared
the current situation in Kemin to the Aksy event of 2002 --
an event in which six protesters were killed by security
forces and that continues to symbolize government oppression
of the people.

KULOV'S KURULTAY
--------------


7. (C) On May 5, ex-PM Felix Kulov convened a "people's
meeting," or "Kurultay" in his home village of Baitik near
Bishkek and published a list of demands, including the
resignation of the president, government, and dissolution of
parliament; an investigation into the death of an opposition
member who died in a Naryn detention center during the April
11-19 demonstration; and an end to government persecutions
against opposition supporters. (Note: Following a meeting
with human rights activists on May 10, Prosecutor General
Elmurza Satibaldiyev stated publicly that the charges of
"mass disorder" against the April demonstration organizers
could be "changed," (or reduced) upon completion of their
investigation. End note.) Kulov also vowed to gather
300,000 signatures calling for the immediate resignation of
President Bakiyev and the dissolution of Parliament.
Opposition MP Tairbek Sarpashev told Ambassador May 10 that,
at least, the For Reforms group will not initiate new
demonstrations anytime soon -- as long as President Bakiyev
and PM Atambayev begin to implement constitutional and
economic reforms. Some opposition members and many political
observers have discussed restarting protests in October.

COMMENT
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8. (C) It may be too early to tell what may come of Bermet
Akayeva's arrest, the PM's public "promise" to review the
terms of the base agreement, and the May 7 accident involving
the base contractor. However, Bermet Akayeva's detention as

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well as these base-related issues may provide more fodder for
the opposition to use in its criticism of President Bakiyev
and PM Atambayev. The base will continue to attract
attention as the August Bishkek SCO summit approaches.

YOVANOVITCH