GRIM ASSESSMENT PROVIDED BY INFLUENTIAL KYRGYZ MP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000487

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: GRIM ASSESSMENT PROVIDED BY INFLUENTIAL KYRGYZ MP

REF: BISHKEK 365

BISHKEK 00000487 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A meeting between opposition MP Kubatbek
Baibolov and SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum April 19 revealed that
Baibolov, at least, has little hope for a near-term solution
to Kyrgyzstan's political instability. Baibolov said that
the struggle for power and resources between rival clans
remained the core explanation for the country's dilemmas, and
was doubtful that constitutional reforms alone could resolve
the current standoff. Ever melodramatic, he forecast that if
a resolution was not found, civil war could ensue. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum met April 19 with senior
opposition MP Kubatbek Baibolov, who provided a relentlessly
pessimistic assessment of Kyrgyzstan's political environment.
(NOTE: This meeting took place hours before Kyrgyz police
cleared Ala-Too Square, effectively ending the nine-day-old
opposition protests. END NOTE.) Comparing Kyrgyzstan with
Afghanistan during the latter years of Soviet occupation,
Baibolov said that the problems in the Kyrgyz Republic stem
from deep roots associated with clan relations, in addition
to the country's struggle to transform quickly from a feudal
system to a democratic state. With those in power unwilling
to relinquish authority, and those in opposition attempting
to grab hold of that power by force, the country remains at a
standstill, remarked Baibolov. He added that, with this
struggle for power and authority ever present, the adoption
of a reformed constitution would do little to resolve
Kyrgyzstan's ongoing political and economic dilemmas.

CIVIL WAR INEVITABLE?
--------------


3. (C) Baibolov commented that the country was entering a
period of dramatic developments, with a president unwilling
to understand Kyrgyzstan's needs. Instead, claimed Baibolov,
President Bakiyev has sought only to preserve his own
authority -- even if it means starting a civil war. Baibolov
said that, despite his own efforts to draft a version of the
constitution that could act as a "bridge" between the
president and opposition, Bakiyev has refused to consider the
text. He noted that the president has not examined PM
Atambayev's version either (Note: Bakiyev forwarded
Atambayev,s version to Parliament for consideration. End
Note). Baibolov believed that, because of the president's
intolerance to change, any minor incident or provocation
could lead to unstoppable civil unrest. He promised,
however, that he would call for a peaceful resolution and try
to dissuade opposition supporters from using force -- as that
was how Bakiyev came to power.


4. (C) Baibolov said that his support for the demonstrations
would stop if the parliament continued to "do nothing," and
if Bakiyev continued to lead the country to certain disaster.
He also lambasted opposition supporters -- like
"U.S.-loving" Edil Baisalov -- for walking back their demand
for Bakiyev's resignation, and voicing their "support" for
the president. Baibolov said that such shifts in strategy,
together with unrealistic promises of dramatic change, have
frustrated many in Kyrgyz society -- including those
demonstrating on Ala-Too square. He confided that, if the
demonstrations produce intangible results, he might soon ask
for political asylum -- as "anything" could happen. (NOTE:
Baibolov noted that a woman had tried to attack him while he
was getting into his car earlier in the day. Baibolov has
also significantly increased his personal security
detachment, and arrived with a retinue of thick-necked body
guards and a chase vehicle following his own armored
Mercedes. END NOTE.)

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NEGOTIATIONS UNDERWAY
--------------


5. (C) Despite his grim assessment, Baibolov said that
negotiations between the government and opposition -- headed
by presidential chief of staff Medet Sadyrkulov -- were
underway. He noted that while Sadyrkulov and PM Atambayev
have been willing to meet with opposition leaders, Bakiyev
himself remained aloof. Baibolov said that the crisis could
come to an end, as a result of negotiations -- but only
without Bakiyev, as the president had already revealed his
unwillingness to cooperate with the opposition. As the
demonstrations represent a struggle for power and resources,
concluded Baibolov, it will take time to improve Kyrgyzstan's
democratic development -- time that many in the opposition
believe the country does not have.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) Baibolov's relentlessly downbeat assessment provides
further confirmation that the raw struggle for power and
control of Kyrgyzstan,s resources among rival clans
continues to be the main impetus for the clash between the
government and opposition. While not the first time Baibolov
has provided such a grim outlook for Kyrgyzstan's future, it
contrasted sharply with his confidence two weeks prior
(reftel),when he insisted that the opposition could compel
reform. During the meeting with DAS Feigenbaum, which took
place just hours before Ministry of Interior forces cleared
out the demonstrators on Ala-Too Square on April 19, Baibolov
dramatically stated that he was ready to issue a statement
denouncing all sides and removing himself from the political
arena. However, we note that in the early hours of the
morning of April 20, Baibolov was once again meeting with
Prime Minister Atambayev )- and presumably had not taken
himself out of the game.


7. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Evan Feigenbaum.

YOVANOVITCH