Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK450
2007-04-20 06:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:
DINNER WITH COMMENTATORS, ACTIVISTS MIRRORS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000450
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: DINNER WITH COMMENTATORS, ACTIVISTS MIRRORS
CONFUSION, ANXIETY IN THE STREETS
BISHKEK 00000450 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000450
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: DINNER WITH COMMENTATORS, ACTIVISTS MIRRORS
CONFUSION, ANXIETY IN THE STREETS
BISHKEK 00000450 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: During a raucous dinner meeting April 18
with SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum, emotions were high as local
commentators and activists expressed varying viewpoints on
the current political situation in Kyrgyzstan. While some
advocated immediate regime change, others strongly believed
reforming institutional authorities, within the current
system, would be more beneficial for long-term stability.
None were able to predict what the future held for
Kyrgyzstan. However, all were confident that the country was
at a pivotal moment in its development. Perhaps most
interesting to note was the dramatic shift in positions by
those who had previously supported systematic reforms, and
the manner in which once like-minded interlocutors have
splintered off from one another -- perhaps as a result of the
government's initiative to split the opposition into as many
parts as possible. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum was joined by AUCA Vice
President Bakyt Beshimov, NGO Interbilim Asiya Sasykbayeva,
Adilet Legal Clinic's Cholpon Jakupova, Akipress Director
Murat Tazabekov, former Central Bank Head Ulan Sarbanov, and
NGO leader Edil Baisalov for what turned out to be a spirited
dinner meeting on April 18. During the four hour discussion,
emotions remained high as each guest expounded sometimes
widely varying prognoses of the current political situation
in Kyrgyzstan, often arguing intensely amongst each other
about what the next steps should be for the opposition and
government. While some, including Tazabekov and Surbanov,
advocated a moderate approach, to enable civil society to
reform and empower state institutions over time and within
the current system of governance, others opted for more
radical methods.
CHANGE NEEDED ( BUT HOW?
--------------
3. (C) Both Jakupova and Sasykbayeva -- who had just returned
from Alatoo Square, where they joined protestors calling for
President Bakiyev's immediate resignation -- believed that
the country could not survive under Bakiyev and, although not
fully confident of Kulov's capabilities, said that Bakiyev
should step down. While disdain for Bakiyev was shared by
all, some believed that it would not be beneficial for
Kyrgyzstan's stability if the president was forced out of
office. Citing existing tensions between north and south,
Beshimov and others were confident that civil unrest would
escalate if the opposition did not find a way to effect
change gradually, systematically. Sarbanov commented that
neither side seemed to take into account the influence of
religious figures and the geopolitical ramifications of their
respective actions. Additionally, Sarbanov noted the
importance of reforming institutions first, so that when new
leaders were brought into office, their powers would be
defined clearly.
4. (C) Baisalov was quick to denounce the United Front-led
protests, noting that the November 2006 demonstrations were
based on morality and ideals rather than a struggle for
power. Repeating his "hatred" for Bakiyev, Baisalov confided
that he would rather work with his sworn enemy than forcibly
remove him from power and watch civil unrest unfold as a
result. Instead, he insisted early parliamentary elections
were key to moving the country in the right direction. He
also claimed the opposition was encouraging regional conflict
by northern opposition supporters blaming southerners -- like
Bakiyev -- for "taking over the government." Baisalov
emphatically expressed concern over such rhetoric, demanding
that everyone at the table take advantage of their positions
and influence to calm the situation.
BISHKEK 00000450 002.4 OF 002
5. (C) Baisalov went on to call PM Atambayev a "foot in the
door" for the opposition, and asked everyone to help the PM
place more opposition supporters in the White House.
Referring to the revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, Baisalov
said that it was not unusual for opposition members to join
the government. Baisalov concluded by advocating the need to
persuade Bakiyev and pro-presidential MPs to reform, rather
than the use of force.
COMMENT: ARGUMENTS ABOUND, SOLUTIONS AMISS AMONGST A
FRACTURED OPPOSITION
-------------- --------------
6. (C) The argument that ensued over dinner between
previously likeminded political commentators made it apparent
that civil society and the opposition have indeed been split
successfully by pro-Bakiyev forces in the government. The
heated debate over forcibly removing Bakiyev from office also
revealed a shift in strategy by those, like Jakupova and
Sasykbayeva, who are now insistent that President Bakiyev
must go. While each guest was armed with criticisms about
the demonstrations and the government's recent moves, there
was a lack of consensus on how to resolve the current crisis
effectively. Although an intellectual debate, the discussion
may reflect the dilemma that the opposition, government, and
society as a whole are currently facing in Kyrgyzstan.
7. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Evan Feigenbaum.
YOVANOVITCH
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: DINNER WITH COMMENTATORS, ACTIVISTS MIRRORS
CONFUSION, ANXIETY IN THE STREETS
BISHKEK 00000450 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: During a raucous dinner meeting April 18
with SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum, emotions were high as local
commentators and activists expressed varying viewpoints on
the current political situation in Kyrgyzstan. While some
advocated immediate regime change, others strongly believed
reforming institutional authorities, within the current
system, would be more beneficial for long-term stability.
None were able to predict what the future held for
Kyrgyzstan. However, all were confident that the country was
at a pivotal moment in its development. Perhaps most
interesting to note was the dramatic shift in positions by
those who had previously supported systematic reforms, and
the manner in which once like-minded interlocutors have
splintered off from one another -- perhaps as a result of the
government's initiative to split the opposition into as many
parts as possible. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum was joined by AUCA Vice
President Bakyt Beshimov, NGO Interbilim Asiya Sasykbayeva,
Adilet Legal Clinic's Cholpon Jakupova, Akipress Director
Murat Tazabekov, former Central Bank Head Ulan Sarbanov, and
NGO leader Edil Baisalov for what turned out to be a spirited
dinner meeting on April 18. During the four hour discussion,
emotions remained high as each guest expounded sometimes
widely varying prognoses of the current political situation
in Kyrgyzstan, often arguing intensely amongst each other
about what the next steps should be for the opposition and
government. While some, including Tazabekov and Surbanov,
advocated a moderate approach, to enable civil society to
reform and empower state institutions over time and within
the current system of governance, others opted for more
radical methods.
CHANGE NEEDED ( BUT HOW?
--------------
3. (C) Both Jakupova and Sasykbayeva -- who had just returned
from Alatoo Square, where they joined protestors calling for
President Bakiyev's immediate resignation -- believed that
the country could not survive under Bakiyev and, although not
fully confident of Kulov's capabilities, said that Bakiyev
should step down. While disdain for Bakiyev was shared by
all, some believed that it would not be beneficial for
Kyrgyzstan's stability if the president was forced out of
office. Citing existing tensions between north and south,
Beshimov and others were confident that civil unrest would
escalate if the opposition did not find a way to effect
change gradually, systematically. Sarbanov commented that
neither side seemed to take into account the influence of
religious figures and the geopolitical ramifications of their
respective actions. Additionally, Sarbanov noted the
importance of reforming institutions first, so that when new
leaders were brought into office, their powers would be
defined clearly.
4. (C) Baisalov was quick to denounce the United Front-led
protests, noting that the November 2006 demonstrations were
based on morality and ideals rather than a struggle for
power. Repeating his "hatred" for Bakiyev, Baisalov confided
that he would rather work with his sworn enemy than forcibly
remove him from power and watch civil unrest unfold as a
result. Instead, he insisted early parliamentary elections
were key to moving the country in the right direction. He
also claimed the opposition was encouraging regional conflict
by northern opposition supporters blaming southerners -- like
Bakiyev -- for "taking over the government." Baisalov
emphatically expressed concern over such rhetoric, demanding
that everyone at the table take advantage of their positions
and influence to calm the situation.
BISHKEK 00000450 002.4 OF 002
5. (C) Baisalov went on to call PM Atambayev a "foot in the
door" for the opposition, and asked everyone to help the PM
place more opposition supporters in the White House.
Referring to the revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, Baisalov
said that it was not unusual for opposition members to join
the government. Baisalov concluded by advocating the need to
persuade Bakiyev and pro-presidential MPs to reform, rather
than the use of force.
COMMENT: ARGUMENTS ABOUND, SOLUTIONS AMISS AMONGST A
FRACTURED OPPOSITION
-------------- --------------
6. (C) The argument that ensued over dinner between
previously likeminded political commentators made it apparent
that civil society and the opposition have indeed been split
successfully by pro-Bakiyev forces in the government. The
heated debate over forcibly removing Bakiyev from office also
revealed a shift in strategy by those, like Jakupova and
Sasykbayeva, who are now insistent that President Bakiyev
must go. While each guest was armed with criticisms about
the demonstrations and the government's recent moves, there
was a lack of consensus on how to resolve the current crisis
effectively. Although an intellectual debate, the discussion
may reflect the dilemma that the opposition, government, and
society as a whole are currently facing in Kyrgyzstan.
7. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Evan Feigenbaum.
YOVANOVITCH