Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK435
2007-04-19 10:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

DOWNBEAT INSIDER DOUBTS EASY RESOLUTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000435 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: DOWNBEAT INSIDER DOUBTS EASY RESOLUTION

BISHKEK 00000435 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000435

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: DOWNBEAT INSIDER DOUBTS EASY RESOLUTION

BISHKEK 00000435 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum met April 17 with MP
Omurbek Babanov, who was skeptical about President Bakiyev's
ability to settle the current political standoff and
predicted that north-south divisions could be exacerbated as
a result. Babanov was more confident in PM Almaz Atambayev's
ability to broker a compromise, but he still believed that
further provocations were likely -- due to Bakiyev's
interactions with criminal elements and his penchant for the
use of force. Babanov insisted that constitutional reforms
were needed, and that he would advocate early parliamentary
elections to ease the current situation. Looking ahead,
Babanov suggested the creation of an independent television
station -- possibly with financial assistance from the U.S.
-- to broadcast objective information throughout the country.
END SUMMARY.

INSTABILITY REMAINS AN UNFORTUNATE REALITY
--------------


2. (C) MP Omurbek Babanov told SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum April
17 that the current political situation remains unstable, and
that the president has done little to ease the tensions.
Babanov said that he personally advised President Bakiyev to
move ahead with reforms, nominate judges for the
Constitutional Court, and refrain from using force against
the opposition, noting that more people would join Kulov's
ranks if there were attacks against opposition supporters.
Babanov said that Bakiyev had failed to act on his
suggestions, however, because he did not see the need
following the low turnout at the opposition's demonstrations
over the past week. Babanov thought Bakiyev could still
stabilize the situation by moving ahead on reforms or calling
for early presidential elections -- and doing so while not
under pressure from opposition demonstrators would actually
be a more effective move. Babanov felt that there needed to
be a new constitution adopted before any elections to ensure
that the new president did not have the same "overarching
powers" that Bakiyev has now.


3. (C) Babanov said that Bakiyev had exacerbated regional

divides by using regional alliances for his own political
gain. The president's rhetoric had also made the situation
worse, creating a no-win situation for parliamentarians who
were forced to answer their constituents' concerns.
Referring to a scuffle that broke out in parliament on April
17 between MPs from the north and south, Babanov said that
the country was beginning to divide itself in two.
Additionally, constituents were losing confidence in their
parliamentary representatives, said Babanov, making it more
reasonable to call for early parliamentary elections.
Holding new elections would also "cleanse" the Jogorku Kenesh
of Akayev-era MPs, and instill more confidence in parliament.
Babanov went on to estimate that sixty percent of the
population believed clashes between the north and south are
possible, and that Bakiyev-led provocations against the
opposition were likely. According to Babanov, Kyrgyz society
was "at the edge of war," which is why it was important to
resolve the current crisis quickly.

INDEPENDENT TV: A TOOL FOR STABILITY
--------------


4. (C) Babanov suggested the creation of an independent
television network, to broadcast objective information
throughout Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia as a whole. Claiming
that all TV stations currently in operation are somehow
influenced by the government or other foreign sources, such
as Russia, Babanov said that Kyrgyzstan needs a "Radio
Liberty-like" station that could remain untouchable by
domestic or foreign actors. Believing that state-owned

BISHKEK 00000435 002.2 OF 002


broadcaster KTR would never be truly independent -- as the
president would maintain control over the station's advisory
council, after appointing its members -- Babanov argued that
it would be advisable to seek Western partners, like the U.S.
and EU, to avoid any domestic or Russian entanglements.


5. (C) He suggested that the USG -- either directly or
indirectly through private business -- could provide
financial assistance as Babanov attempts to purchase an
operating license. If that was not possible, he suggested
the U.S. provide content or work with the station on a
project basis. Without Western involvement, Babanov feared
that he would be vulnerable to government pressure.
Comparing the venture to the USG-funded Freedom House
Printing Press, Babanov said that independent TV would help
promote democracy, by protecting the media from
government-produced biases. In addition, he said that the
station could also act as an instrument to hold the president
at his word, making it more difficult for Bakiyev to walk
back any of his promises by skewing the news in one direction
or another. DAS Feigenbaum said that he would relay
Babanov's idea to Washington for further consideration.
(NOTE: When Babanov was a part owner of the NTS television
station, he approached us for support in turning that station
into a nationwide "public" television station. Babanov
recently sold his share in NTS "under pressure." END NOTE.)

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) At this point, there is not a lot going on in Ala-Too
Square, and many observes think the opposition's street
demonstration has fizzled. Nevertheless, emotions are still
running high on both sides. Although Babanov was pessimistic
that the sides could reach a resolution in the current
environment, it is clear that the parties are carrying on
stepped-up negotiations behind closed doors.


7. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Evan Feigenbaum.

YOVANOVITCH