DAS FEIGENBAUM MEETS WITH CIVIL SOCIETY AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 000427

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: DAS FEIGENBAUM MEETS WITH CIVIL SOCIETY AND
PARLIAMENT, AS PROTEST CONTNINUES IN BSIHKEK

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum arrived April 15 to
an unsettled political situation in Kyrgyzstan. United Front
leader Felix Kulov has vowed publicly to press on with street
demonstrations until President Bakiyev resigns, even though
the demonstrations have failed to gain momentum. In meetings
on April 16, DAS Feigenbaum heard from a range of civil
society activists, intelligentsia, and parliamentary leaders.
Most expressed cynicism about political developments,
criticizing both the president and the opposition as being
more concerned with power than reform. Parliament Speaker
Sultanov said that a constitutional compromise was likely,
but others doubted a text would get through parliament.
Analyst Valentin Bogatyrev said that several opposition
leaders were ready to break with Kulov, and Bakiyev would use
any negotiations to split the opposition. Bogatyrev said
that Bakiyev will block the constitutional amendments, and
hoped to put off the next clash with the opposition until the
fall. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) In separate meetings on April 16, SCA DAS Evan
Feigenbaum saw Speaker Marat Sultanov and MP Omurbek
Tekebayev at the parliament. He met with Kyrgyz
intelligentsia, including former Foreign Minister Muratbek
Imanaliyev, analyst Valentin Bogatyrev, former
parliamentarian Zainidin Kurmanov, businessman Emil
Umetaliyev, and foundation head Ishenbay Abdurazakov. He
also met with civil society representatives Raya Kadyrova
(Foundation for Tolerance International),Erkina Ubysheva
(Association of Civil Society Support Centers),Gulnara
Iskakova (law professor at AUCA),Nurlan Sadikov (Institute
of Constitutional Policy),and Azamat Kerimbayev (ABA/CEELI).
He met with IMF Res Rep James McHugh, World Bank Country
Director Roger Robinson, ADB Rep Ashraf Malik, and Japanese
Charge Kasai Tatsuhiko to discuss economic and assistance
issues. DAS Feigenbaum made remarks to the American Chamber
of Commerce. DAS Feigenbaum's meeting with FM Karabayev will
be reported septel.

SULTANOV: COMPROMISE POSSIBLE
--------------


3. (C) Speaker of Parliament Marat Sultanov told DAS
Feigenbaum that negotiations between the government,
opposition, and parliament were possible. He said that
President Bakiyev had agreed to incorporate the opposition's
proposals into a draft constitution prepared by PM
Atambayev's working group, and that all sides had agreed to
review the draft. Sultanov defended the December 2006
version of the constitution, arguing it did not constitute a
"step back" from the November 2006 version, which had been
adopted in the wake of demonstrations. Sultanov went point
by point through the December version to show that it did not
necessarily bolster the president's authority. He also
pulled out the original copy of the text to show Feigenbaum
the signatures of those -- including many in the opposition
-- who had agreed to each of the amendments. Sultanov said
that the problem with the December constitution was its lack
of transitional provisions, but that could be resolved
through negotiations. Sultanov said that while both the
president and the opposition were quick to take offense, he
was certain that the current political crisis would be
settled peacefully and within the framework of the law.

TEKEBAYEV: SKEPTICAL ABOUT EARLY COMPROMISE
--------------


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4. (C) Opposition MP Omurbek Tekebayev was skeptical that
Bakiyev could end the current political stand-off, because he
had consistently blocked all previous attempts at reform.
Tekebayev said that Bakiyev only agreed to reforms under
pressure, and was quick to rescind his concessions once he
felt he had the upper hand. Tekebayev said Bakiyev had used
personal attacks and the threat of dissolution to force
parliament to accept the December 2006 constitution which
restored much of the presidential authority lost in the
November version. Tekebayev said that harassment from
authorities continued, including against the staff of his
television station in Jalalabad and against members of his
Ata Meken political party.


5. (C) Tekebayev discounted Bakiyev's latest moves toward the
opposition, noting that constitutional reforms would go
nowhere because the Constitutional Court lacked a quorum due
to the president's unwillingness to nominate more judges for
parliamentary approval. He also claimed that KTR would never
be turned into a public broadcaster because the pro-Bakiyev
majority in parliament would vote down the creation of an
advisory council. The only way to reverse this trend, said
Tekebayev, would be for Bakiyev to accept a parliamentary
form of government and agree to step down. While hoping for
a compromise, Tekebayev said his Ata Meken party could not
take part in negotiations due to "radical" elements within
the party. (NOTE: With their red t-shirts, hats, and
banners, Ata Meken party members have been a visible presence
at the demonstration. END NOTE.) Instead, "centrist"
politicians -- like MPs Sariyev and Baibolov -- were in a
better position to negotiate. Tekebayev predicted that by
the end of the week everything would be clearer, and that
"somebody" would make a mistake.

INTELLIGENTSIA: DEEPLY CYNICAL
--------------


6. (C) Over the course of a relaxed dinner meeting, several
members of the Kyrgyz intelligentsia were deeply cynical
about the current political environment. They found fault in
all the current political players, comparing them to
"mini-khans" lacking nationalistic ideals or the vision
necessary to lead the country. All were concerned that Kulov
had backed himself into a corner with inflexible demands, and
he might resort to take radical measures to save face. The
analysts noted that Bakiyev had demonstrated a readiness to
talk with the opposition, effectively undercutting the
oppositions' rhetoric. They felt that PM Atambayev, just
like Kulov, had come to power without a planned course of
action or direction. They attributed much of the current
political instability to the lack of a developed political
culture in the country, with one analyst saying that
political movements were still largely based on clans or
geographical ties, rather than ideas.


7. (C) Several in the group were concerned about the
influence of Russian media in Kyrgyzstan, and the impact of
the steady anti-American rhetoric on Kyrgyz youth. The
absence of an English-speaking, politically active generation
made it difficult for American media to counter the Russians.
Although the group believed that the Manas Air Base was
still necessary, recent negative incidents such as the
shooting and plane accident had contributed to the
anti-American views already developed by the Russian media.
The analysts said that more transparency about base
activities, contracts awarded to Kyrgyz companies, rent
agreements, and overall cash payments to the Kyrgyz
government would help counteract the constant flow of "black

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PR" from Russia. The group believed that balanced influence
by all of the powers, such as the U.S., China, Russia, and
Europe, was important for stability in Kyrgyzstan.


BAKIYEV'S CONCESSIONS MERELY A TACTIC?
--------------


8. (C) Following the dinner, DAS Feigenbaum met with
Bogatyrev, who continues to advise the president. Bogatyrev
said that there had been a split in the opposition, prompted
by the failure of the street demonstration to gain traction.
The group around Kulov still refused to talk to Bakiyev,
while the more moderate opposition group -- including MPs
Baibolov, Sariyev, and Babanov -- understood that they had to
talk to the president. The more moderate group also felt
that they could work with the draft constitution produced by
Atambayev's working group.


9. (C) Bogatyrev said that Bakiyev saw talks with the
opposition as merely a tactic, and his immediate goal was not
to adopt the draft constitution, but to use the parliament to
delay the process. Bogatyrev claimed that pro-Bakiyev MPs
had already received instructions to make sure the draft
constitution was not adopted. Bakiyev would continue talks
with the opposition, and then blame the parliament for
inaction. According to Bogatyrev, Bakiyev's goal was to
delay any political confrontation until the fall, when he
would be in a stronger position to influence (early)
parliamentary elections. Some in the opposition -- such as
Beknazarov and Otunbayeva -- understand this tactic and are,
therefore, pushing for a constitutional referendum. Others
in the opposition, such as Tekebayev, fear that Bakiyev would
use the promise of a constitutional referendum to pull a
"bait and switch" -- that is, agreeing to a referendum first,
and then putting forward his draft at the last minute.
(NOTE: Former President Akayev did this in a 2003
constitutional referendum. END NOTE.) He said that more
radical parliamentarians like Tekebayev were ready to call
for dissolution of the parliament.

CIVIL SOCIETY: DOUBTS ABOUT KULOV . . .
--------------


10. (C) Several civil society representatives (some of whom
have been active in opposition political movements) told DAS
Feigenbaum that they found it difficult to believe Kulov's
transition from government to opposition leader. They saw
Kulov as "good product of the Soviet system," who says many
of the right things but is not a reformer. The group
lamented that the opposition, which had been more united in
November, was now split between Kulov's more radical United
Front, whose goal was Bakiyev's resignation, and the For
Reforms movement, which was mainly interested in
constitutional reform. They regretted that many of the
opposition politicians were far more interested in the
struggle for power than in reforms.

. . . AND CONCERN ABOUT THE CONSTITUTION
--------------


11. (C) The civil society leaders agreed that the draft
constitution prepared by Prime Minister Atambayev's working
group was a vast improvement over the current "December"
constitution (NOTE: One of the group, Nurlan Sadikov, served
on the PM's constitutional working group; another, Gulnara
Iskakova, was the primary drafter of the Baibolov-proposed
constitution. END NOTE.) They noted that the most important

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improvement was in the area of checks and balances, with a
much stronger parliament. Some in the group, however,
doubted that this draft constitution would be passed by the
parliament, due to opposition from pro-Bakiyev deputies.
Several in the group were concerned that civil society was
not as effective as it had been in the past, and that the
U.S. should do more to support civil society groups,
political party development, and the parliament.

SLOW PROGRESS ON ECONOMIC, BUSINESS REFORMS
--------------


12. (C) IFI representatives presented a mixed review of the
state of the Kyrgyz economy and progress toward economic
reforms. World Bank rep Robinson said that because of the
lack of progress on reforms, Kyrgyzstan's May Consultative
Group meeting had been downgraded to a nearly meaningless
"Development Forum." The reps attributed the reported rapid
growth in the Kyrgyz economy mostly to remittances from the
large portion of the workforce living abroad. While the
passing of the state budget was a positive step, the budget
had undergone a series of changes, none of which had yet been
made public -- and were not approved by the IFIs. The reps
noted that Kyrgyzstan had great trade potential in
hydro-electricity production, but the Kyrgyz currently
charged some of the lowest tariffs in the world and had "no
appetite for energy sector reforms." In informal remarks to
the American Chamber of Commerce, Feigenbaum noted that the
U.S. was working along with the IFIs to help develop more
lucrative markets in South Asia for Kyrgyzstan's hydro
potential, and that the USG was working with groups like
AmCham to push for reforms that would benefit all businesses.
Several AmCham members complained to DAS Feigenbaum about
problems in the business environment due to corruption and
lack of rule of law.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) Cynicism about the current political situation is
widespread, with many believing that the political leadership
is interested only in power, not reform or governance. While
Speaker Sultanov was optimistic that a constitutional
compromise would go forward, there are many potential hurdles
-- not the least of which is the possibility that the
pro-Bakiyev MPs will block consideration of the draft in
parliament.


14. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Feigenbaum.
YOVANOVITCH