KYRGYZ PRESIDENT'S CHIEF OF STAFF: RELATIONS WILL

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PRESIDENT'S CHIEF OF STAFF: RELATIONS WILL
IMPROVE

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum discussed the
current political situation, prospects for Kyrgyzstan's
Millenium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Threshold Country
Program, and the state of bilateral relations on April 17
with newly-appointed Presidential Chief of Staff Medet
Sadyrkulov. Sadyrkulov confidently predicted the government
would reach a compromise with the opposition that would avoid
violence on the streets. He said opposition leader Kulov had
overplayed his hand. On MCC, Sadyrkulov said he would retain
his role as coordinator, and pledged to look at steps
Kyrgyzstan could take now to demonstrate the political will
to combat corruption. Bilateral relations, said Sadyrkulov,
will be much better under PM Atambayev and with himself as
Presidency Chief of Staff: "Now all the ministers report to
me," Sadyrkulov said. End Summary.

Internal Politics
--------------

2. (C) On April 17, SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum met with
recently-appointed Presidential Chief of Staff Medet
Sadyrkulov, who was late arriving due to having just been
called in to see President Bakiyev. Sadyrkulov said they had
discussed the request by opposition parliamentarians to
introduce some additional changes in the constitution
proposed by the working group under Prime Minister Atambayev.
Sadyrkulov said that the President had "no problem" with the
proposals. He was confident the opposition and government
would reach a "mutual understanding."


3. (C) The one problem, Sadyrkulov noted, was opposition
leader Kulov -- he cannot be Prime Minister again, as he
desparately wants, but will not accept any other post.
Sadyrkulov said, "we" will be talking with Kulov, maybe
directly. Sadyrkulov said the President was not viewing this
as a zero-sum game; the opposition (and Kulov) had made some
big mistakes, but the President is open to their input into
the draft constitution.

It's not about the constitution
--------------

4. (C) In fact, it's not about the constitution, Sadyrkulov
continued, it's about Kulov's demand that the President must
resign. Sadyrkulov claimed that when he heard Kulov announce
that the President must resign, he knew that Kulov had
"lost." The opposition wants the President to resign, but
they have no reason for the demand. The President has
offered many concessions: the opposition wanted First Deputy
PM Usenov to go; he is gone. They wanted Prosecutor General
Kongantiev to go; he is gone. They wanted constitutional
reform; Bakiyev set up a working group under the PM. They
wanted state TV to be independent; Bakiyev reversed an
earlier veto and signed the law to make this happen.


5. (C) In response to a question from DAS Feigenbaum,
Sadyrkulov offered assurances that the government intended to
follow through with these reforms. He said Kyrgyzstan was
committed to democracy; there was no other way. He said the
final outcome of the current crisis will be bad for Kulov.
Kulov created this situation, with his unrealistic demand for
resignation of the President. Unlike in November, when the
demonstrators included intelligentsia, this time the
opposition has been able to turn out only uneducated,
vodka-drinking youths. If Kulov is shown to completely fail,
it will be good for Kyrgyzstan.

U.S.: Peaceful, Lawful Resolution Key

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--------------

6. (C) DAS Feigenbaum reiterated the U.S. position that that
the Kyrgyz themselves resolve their political issues without
violence, in a lawful and constitutional manner. He noted
that President Bakiyev, as an elected official, was on strong
legal grounds not to resign. But, as a political matter, he
asked Sadyrkulov how would Kyrgyzstan develop some political
stability -- would it be able to give all the players a stake
in a stable system? Sadyrkulov responded that he and othe
government leaders were now considering these issues. He was
confident they would find a peaceful resolution with the
opposition. He noted that PM Atambayev had chaired a
government meeting where a resolution was taken not to arm
the police -- this was a firm commitment to non-violence.

Fewer mistakes in government?
--------------

7. (C) Sadyrkulov said that he was optimistic we would see
improvement in how the government operates, and improved ties
with the United States. He claimed he had received approval
from the President to enhance the economic expertise of the
Presidential Administration, and was planning to bring in an
English-speaking expert from the Ministry of Finance. He
said we should see "fewer mistakes" with Atambayev as Prime
Minister and himself running the Presidential Administration.
He indicated there were some "enemies" -- such as State
Advisor Usen Sydykov -- but that he, Sadyrkulov, was now in
charge and we would see a difference.

Let's Move Ahead with Millenium Challenge Corporation
--------------

8. (C) DAS Feigenbaum asked if Sadyrkulov would maintain
his responsibilities as MCC Coordinator for Kyrgyzstan, with
his new responsibilities as Chief of Staff. Sadyrkulov
replied, "If necessary, yes." DAS Feigenbaum urged him to do
so, noting that he would provide continuity of leadership,
demonstrate political will, and have proximity to the
President. Sadyrkulov committed to stay in charge of MCC,
and noted that he wants to move ahead with the Threshold
Country Program, and hoped the MCC Board would make a
positive decision to fund it. He acknowledged that recent
political instability could raise doubts about Kyrgyz
political will, but said with his new authority, there should
be no problems. He said he had reached out and planned to
include some lawyers and experts from the opposition on his
MCC team. DAS Feigenbaum conveyed to Sadyrkulov a list of
proposed actions the Kyrgyz could take now to demonstrate
their political will to take steps against corruption.
Sadyrkulov said he would call a meeting of the U.S.-Kyrgyz
MCA working group as a first step.

Whither U.S.-Kyrgyz relations
--------------

9. (C) DAS Feigenbaum asked Sadyrkulov how he viewed
bilateral relations. Sadyrkulov replied, "They are going to
be very good." He said that last year there were problems,
but he attributed much of the misunderstanding to the
incompetence of individuals who are no longer in government.
He summarized by saying both sides will need to monitor
relations, but "things should be okay."

Positive Comments on Manas Air Base
--------------

10. (C) DAS Feigenbaum previewed for Sadyrkulov the message
he had prepared regarding the Manas Air Base incidents for
use in both private and public comments in Kyrgyzstan.
Sadyrkulov said, "What you outlined sounds reasonable to
Kyrgyz ears." He added that in his previous job as Deputy

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Chief of Staff, he was not responsible for base issues and
was not briefed up. Now, he would need to be informed. He
said he held views similar to those of DAS Feigenbaum; but
said there were still some problems to resolve; still, he was
confident they could be dealt with successfully. He said
some agencies still had concerns about the base -- mostly a
lack of understanding -- and he would work with them to
"smooth things out." Before, he said, as Deputy Chief of
Staff, he would hear ministers say things about the base that
he knew were incorrect, but he could not say anything. Now,
as Chief of Staff, he can speak up. He reiterated President
Bakiyev's statement last week to former Senator Dole of
support for the base and its continued operations. "We have
some small problems yet to resolve," he said with the hint of
a smile, "but now all the ministers report to me."


11. (U) This cable was cleared by SCA DAS Feigenbaum.
YOVANOVITCH