Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK413
2007-04-13 14:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR DAS FEIGENBAUM'S VISIT TO BISHKEK

Tags:  PGOV PREL MARR KG 
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VZCZCXRO4320
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHEK #0413/01 1031445
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 131445Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9350
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 2078
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 0167
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 0177
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY 1550
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 0650
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0466
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 0174
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0333
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0552
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 2472
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1859
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 000413 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN
DUSHANBE PLEASE PASS TO DAS FEIGENBAUM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DAS FEIGENBAUM'S VISIT TO BISHKEK

BISHKEK 00000413 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 000413

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN
DUSHANBE PLEASE PASS TO DAS FEIGENBAUM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DAS FEIGENBAUM'S VISIT TO BISHKEK

BISHKEK 00000413 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Your visit comes at an unsettled time in
Kyrgyzstan. To this point (mid-day April 13),the "non-stop"
anti-Bakiyev protest called by former Prime Minister Kulov
has failed to gain momentum. The demonstration is not over,
however, and there is still a risk that a misstep or a
provocation could lead to violence. In the run-up to the
demonstration, President Bakiyev offered a number of
concessions and compromises, including draft constitutional
amendments, but if the past is any guide, there is no
guarantee he will follow through. Recently, we have received
positive signals from the government regarding support for
the Base, working with NGOs, and moving forward on reforms --
particularly those connected to Kyrgyzstan's proposed MCA
Threshold Country Plan. Some of your interlocutors will no
doubt be focused on internal political developments, but your
visit will offer an opportunity to make progress on a number
of key bilateral issues. END SUMMARY.

UNSETTLED POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
--------------


2. (C) Former Prime Minister Felix Kulov, deeply bitter about
being dumped from the "tandem," along with several prominent
members of the opposition, began a rally on Bishkek's central
Ala-Too Square on April 11. Kulov's United Front and the For
Reforms movement vowed to continue the protest until Bakiyev
resigned and called early presidential elections. Protest
organizers have erected yurts and tents and have provided
food (and likely have doled out cash, too),but to this point
(mid-day April 13),the turnout has been relatively small (by
local demonstration standards),with crowds peaking at no
more than 5000. Organizers have promised concerts and
entertainment in an effort to bolster the crowds tonight and
over the weekend. Some in the opposition have backed down
from the demand that Bakiyev resign, and have said that the
main goal is constitutional reform.


3. (C) The demonstration has remained peaceful, and there has
been free access to and from the square. The police have
maintained a low-profile presence near the square, but have
not interfered with the demonstration. While it would not
appear to be in either side's interest to provoke a clash,
there is still a risk that a misstep or outside provocation
could lead to violence. We expect the next two days to be
the key days for the demonstration.

COMPROMISES OFFERED
--------------


4. (C) In the run-up to the planned demonstrations, President
Bakiyev offered a number of compromises and concessions to
the opposition. In response to a key demand from civil
society, Bakiyev withdrew his earlier veto and signed
legislation allowing for the establishment of public
television. In March, he replaced the controversial
prosecutor general. On March 29, he appointed opposition
member Almaz Atambayev as Prime Minister. Although (or
perhaps because) Atambayev is strongly anti-Kulov, Atambayev
has served as a bridge to some more moderate members of the
opposition. A working group headed by Atambayev has drafted
constitutional amendments that would strengthen the role of
the parliament and reduce some powers of the president.


5. (C) While Bakiyev has offered compromises, it is an open

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question whether he will follow through -- especially if the
demonstration fizzles. Last November, the threat of public
protests pushed Bakiyev into making concessions to the
opposition. A compromise on a new constitution effectively
ended the week-long street protest. Once the immediate
pressure was off, however, Bakiyev undid the compromise with
constitutional amendments forced through parliament in late
December. The game here is played for short term gain, and
with little regard for reaching a deal that will last or for
the longer-term consequences.

POSITIVE SIGNALS
--------------


6. (C) In the past weeks, we have received a number of
positive signals from the government, with interlocutors
indicating that they realize serious mistakes were made last
summer, would like to move past the (mostly base-related)
problems of the fall and winter, and want now to improve the
bilateral relationship. President Bakiyev, Foreign Minister
Karabayev, and Minister of Defense Isakov have assured us of
the government's commitment to the continued operation of the
Manas Air Base as an important component in the fight against
terrorism in Afghanistan. They have also said they want to
resolve outstanding base issues, and want speedy resolution
of the Ivanov and airplane collision incidents. The Foreign
Minister has reached out directly to international NGOs
(including many of our assistance program implementers),
telling them that their work was important to Kyrgyzstan's
development. He has told us he will work with us on
bilateral irritants, such as the accreditation issue and the
social fund problem. The new Minister of Interior Nogoibayev
has presented a way forward on the Surveillance Detection
team issue, and the new Minister of Education Osmonaliyev is
working constructively with the American University of
Central Asia. The Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, and
the head of the government's MCA committee have reiterated
their strong interest in moving forward with Kyrgyzstan's
threshold country proposal as soon as possible. We think
this noticeable change in tone presents an opportunity to
move forward on a number of bilateral issues.

SUGGESTED POINTS TO MAKE
--------------


7. (C) The combination of a renewed interest in positive
relations with the U.S. and some new key interlocutors, such
as Prime Minister Atambayev and Foreign Minister Karabayev,
ensures that there will be great interest in meeting with
you. FM Karabayev especially will be interested in how you
see the bilateral relationship, how you envision the
Comprehensive Policy Dialogue, and how we view Central Asia
and our policy toward the region. There is also interest in
Afghanistan and developments there. You will likely also
need to reassure your interlocutors that Iran issues are on a
diplomatic track, and that our use of Manas Air Base is
limited to support for Operation Enduring Freedom. This is
an issue that is being raised at almost every meeting now.
You will have an opportunity to ask about Kyrgyz goals for
the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which
Karabayev has told us is his number one priority, and about
Kyrgyz relations with the neighbors, including Russia.


8. (C) Given the current political uncertainty, your
interlocutors will likely be focused on internal political
developments. The confrontation -- or possible compromise --

BISHKEK 00000413 003.2 OF 004


will be playing out over your week here. It will be
important to repeat to both sides that their actions be
non-violent, legal, and constitutional.


9. (SBU) In your meetings with government officials,
parliamentarians, civil society representatives, and press,
you may wish to draw on the following points:

Internal Politics:

--We urge that all parties work constructively toward
constitutional reform. We urge that any amendments be
adopted in accordance with procedures established under the
constitution, so that any new constitution is seen by all
sides as legitimate.

--We applaud the President's decision to transform KTR into a
public television station and urge that the government
rapidly implement the law.

--We congratulate the parliament and government on the
adoption of a two-tier budget; this is a significant step
forward. We urge the government to take steps to improve
economic policy and governance, including finalizing tax
reform, establishing transparent and comprehensive program
budgeting, and improving microfinance sector legislation.

--We urge the government to take steps to improve the
environment for businesses, investors, and traders, including
proceeding with judicial reform to build the trust of
businesses and investors, streamlining the permits process,
and undertaking customs administration reform.

MCA Threshold Program:

--We are committed to supporting programs to improve the
effectiveness of the judicial system and to fight corruption
in law enforcement agencies. Millennium Challenge Account
financing is tied to the political will to improve
governance. The Kyrgyz government can help generate a
positive decision by taking certain steps, including:
--Establish a civilian review board for law enforcement
matters;
--Transfer cases of police misconduct from the MVD to
an internal investigations unit;
--Make the Financial Intelligence Unit fully
functioning;
--Actively enforce the laws on money laundering,
terrorist finance, and corruption;
--Conduct a functional analysis of the judicial system.

--The Millennium Challenge Corporation approved the Kyrgyz
Threshold Country Plan proposal last year, and the next step
is for MCC to approve funding for the proposal.

BASE ISSUES
--------------


10. (C) Internal political developments and a renewed
commitment to the Manas Air Base have combined to push base
issues off the front page. However, you can expect that
every interlocutor will ask you about the base and urge rapid
resolution of the December 6 shooting incident and the
airplane collision. The tone will be much more constructive
than it was just a short month ago, but these remain serious
political and emotional issues here. You need to convey our

BISHKEK 00000413 004.2 OF 004


commitment to resolving these incidents as quickly as
possible, in a way that we believe is fair and acceptable to
both sides. In addition, the issue of contracts for Kyrgyz
business with the U.S. military both here and in Afghanistan
is likely to come up, as President Bakiyev recently raised it
with Senator Dole. More detailed points are in the Key
Themes and Points prepared for your trip.
YOVANOVITCH