KYRGYZ DEMONSTRATIONS: TWO COMPETING VIEWS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000396

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ DEMONSTRATIONS: TWO COMPETING VIEWS FROM
PARLIAMENT

REF: A. BISHKEK 384

B. BISHKEK 386

C. BISHKEK 389

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Meeting separately with the Ambassador April
11, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of Parliament provided
widely varying analyses of the opposition-led demonstrations
beginning today in Bishkek. Speaker Sultanov told the
Ambassador he thought the protests would be peaceful, and
there would be no provocations from the government side. He
said that the draft constitution prepared by Prime Minister
Atambayev's working group was the key to moving forward.
Sultanov criticized the opposition for its "absurd" demands
and pressure tactics. Deputy Speaker Isabekov, on the other
hand, warned of civil unrest due to certain provocations.
Isabekov criticized the working group's draft constitution
and was pessimistic that there would be progress toward a new
constitution. End Summary.

"DON'T WORRY, EVERYTHING WILL BE OK"
--------------


2. (C) During an April 11 meeting with Ambassador, Speaker of
Parliament Marat Sultanov gave assurances that the
demonstrations would be peaceful and without provocation by
the government. Sultanov discounted rumors that pro-Bakiyev
demonstrators were being organized to challenge the
opposition protesters, and said that Nurlan Motuyev, a noted
thug and rabble-rouser released from custody on the eve of
the demonstrations, would not be a factor.

MOVING FORWARD (SLOWLY) WITH NEW CONSTITUTION
--------------


3. (C) Sultanov said that the draft constitution produced by
Prime Minister Atambayev's working group represented the best
way forward. He said that it was based on the current
("December version") constitution, with slight modifications
to incorporate some of the opposition's demands. Sultanov,
who was a drafter of the December version of the
constitution, said the new draft provisions would increase
the parliament from 75 to 105 members, but protect current
deputies from early elections. Also, under the new draft,
parliament would form the cabinet. Sultanov said that the
new draft would first be considered by the parliament's
committee on constitutional law, perhaps as soon as April 16.
After review in committee, the draft would go to the
constitutional court for review. (Note: Sultanov did not
mention that the constitutional court currently lacks a
quorum and parliament has failed to act on the two judges
nominated to fill the vacancies. End note.) Sultanov said
that the draft would be taken up by the full parliament
following the constitutional court's review. (Note: This is
contrary to our understanding of the adoption process for
constitutional laws. End Note.)

CRITICAL OF OPPOSITION
--------------


4. (C) Sultanov said that United Front leader Felix Kulov had
had ample time to resolve the situation but now had left
himself with no way out. Sultanov believed that Kulov has
been grossly misinformed about support for the opposition in
the south and that southerners would rally around Bakiyev.
He argued that President Bakiyev had offered a compromise but
that the opposition showed no interest in a dialogue, and he

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criticized Kulov's use of ultimatums and the threat of
violence to achieve radical demands. Sultanov also
criticized the draft constitutional law put forward by the
opposition (see Ref C) as "invalid and undemocratic." He
said that timing provisions in the draft were "absurd," and
he further noted that offering deputies the opportunity to
hold cabinet positions and parliamentary seats simultaneously
would never work.

ISABEKOV WARNS OF VIOLENCE
--------------


5. (C) In a separate meeting April 11, Deputy Speaker
Kubanychbek Isabekov presented the Ambassador a very
different view of the demonstrations and draft constitution.
Isabekov grimly foretold of violence and certain provocation,
warning that while April 11 was a day of administrative
organization and the gathering of the masses, April 12 would
be "the most dangerous day" and could be the beginning of
great civil unrest. He said that female parliamentary staff
members were urged to go home early, that building security
was heightened, and that, although he and Sultanov had vowed
to "stay to the end," there would be duty vehicles to whisk
them away should the situation quickly deteriorate. Even
though students had been threatened with expulsion should
they participate in the demonstrations, Isabekov said that
there was money available to draw the youths into the
streets. He also noted the presence of "unknown forces" in
camouflage around the city center, but did not elaborate.


6. (C) Isabekov told Ambassador that he was not in favor of
Atambayev's draft of the constitution, remarking that the
president should not be given the authority to name all court
judges. He said that Kulov and Bakiyev never worked together
while they were a part of the "tandem" and would certainly
not come to a compromise now. He also noted that the
constitutional court, lacking two judges, was not functional
and could not assess any new constitutions proposed.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The differing predictions of the Speaker and Deputy
Speaker show just how uncertain the situation is as the
demonstrations get underway. Sultanov, who played a key role
in mediating the November demonstrations, was clearly in the
pro-Bakiyev camp this time. He is, however, in the best
position to assess how the parliament will deal with the
competing draft constitutions, and this will likely, once
again, be central to reaching a compromise.
YOVANOVITCH