KYRGYZ DEPUTY FM ON IRAN, SCO SUMMIT, INTERNAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000390

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/A AND NEA/IR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR IR AF KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ DEPUTY FM ON IRAN, SCO SUMMIT, INTERNAL
POLITICS


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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

1.(U) This is an Action Reguest; see para 11 below.


2. (C) Summary. In a relaxed, informal setting, DCM met with
Kyrgyz Deputy FM Kadyrbek Sarbayev on April 7 and discussed
at length a range of issues, including U.S.-Iran tensions;
the upcoming SCO summit, including Russian and Chinese
pressure to close Manas Air Base; the EU's Central Asia
strategy; the MFA's recent positive outreach to NGO's;
perspectives on the new Foreign Minister, and Sarbayev's
personal views on the current internal political crisis. End
Summary.

Iran: Looming confrontation with the U.S.?
--------------

3. (C) Sarbayev was concerned that the U.S. was
intentionally heading into a military confrontation with
Iran. He said he was worried about the recent U.S. naval
buildup in the Gulf, and raised current speculation in
Kyrgyzstan that the Manas coalition air base might be used
for air strikes against Iran. In Teheran, Sarbayev said, the
Iranians are taking civil defense precautions. Western
embassies are considering evacuating their families, and the
Kyrgyz mission in Iran is also planning evacuation
contingencies. He listened, but was not persuaded by DCM's
arguments that the U.S. wants a diplomatic resolution and
current military maneuvers in the Gulf are designed to
increase political pressure on Iran and do not presage armed
conflict. Sarbayev agreed that Russia and China are moving
closer to the U.S. position, as they too are disillusioned by
Iranian actions. Sarbayev said that Iran will be invited to
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in August,
as one of four SCO observers, but the level or Iranian
representation has not been determined (he did not rule out
Ahmadinejad.) &It all depends on the outcome of the UN
Security Council discussions and the resolution,8 Sarbayev
explained.

SCO Summit: Afghanistan on the agenda, and Manas
--------------

4. (C) Sarbayev said that the Kyrgyz plan to put
Afghanistan on the SCO summit agenda, and want to invite
President Karzai to attend. He said the Kyrgyz would
appreciate U.S. help to convince Karzai to come. Sarbayev
added that Kyrgyzstan has consulted with all SCO members, and
all have agreed to putting Afghanistan on the agenda. He
explained this Kyrgyz initiative by noting that Russia and
China will pressure Kyrgyzstan to close Manas air base; in
Sarbayev's words, it won,t be just a difficult issue, it
will be &painful.8 Having Afghanistan on the agenda could
help make the case that the base plays a useful regional
security role. The rest of the agenda is not yet firm; the
next 1-2 months will be key, Sarbayev said. SCO Defense
Ministers will meet in May; the FM's in June. He urged the
U.S. to reach out to China and Russia directly in capitals to
explain the importance of our operations in Afghanistan for
regional security, and the base,s role in combating
terrorism. Sarbayev said the Kyrgyz are very concerned with
Afghan plans to close their Bishkek Embassy soon; and asked
whether the U.S. could help encourage Kabul to keep its
mission open at least through the SCO summit. The Kyrgyz are
also worried about recent news reports that Karzai has
reached out to the Taliban; this undermines support for the
base, and raises security concerns for Kyrgyzstan, should the
Taliban join the government.

EU's Central Asia strategy:

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5. (C) Briefly discussing the recent EU meeting with
Central Asia FM's in Astana, Sarbayev said Kyrgyzstan
appreciated being consulted by the EU on its strategy.
However, he said it was a bit as if Europe treats the region
like children: in a family, parents ask children what kind
of pet they would like, and listen to what they say, but the
parents alone will decide whether they end up getting a dog,
a turtle or a fish, regardless what they asked for. For the
EU not to invite regional representatives to the June
Brussels Summit that will roll out its Central Asia strategy
would be a &huge mistake,8 according to Sarbayev. Why, he
asked, would Nazarbayev or any other regional leader take the
EU seriously -- especially on issues like democracy and human
rights -- when they appear to dictate to the region in such a
paternalistic way?

NGO meeting with Foreign Minister
--------------

6. (C) Sarbayev characterized FM Karabayev's April 6
meeting with international NGO's and assistance implementers
as a first step in engaging civil society in Kyrgyzstan's
foreign policy. Sarbayev claimed he and the two other deputy
ministers have been briefing Karabayev daily, and one issue
they,ve pressed on has been the need to engage NGOs in
foreign policy (Sarbayev said former FM Jekshenkulov had no
desire to hear any outside opinions). Earlier, Karabayev had
first met with Kyrgyz NGOs. Now that the FM has blessed and
inaugurated the idea of positive engagement with NGOs, it
will be easier to resolve issues. Sarbayev said the MFA
wants to standardize issues of accreditation and social fund
payments, and recognizes the regulations have not been clear
or evenly applied in the past.

FM Karbayev: Breath of Fresh Air
--------------

7. (C) Sarbayev said the difference between current FM
Karabayev and his predecessor, Jekshenkulov, is like night
and day. Jekshenkulov made life miserable for all his
deputies, according to Sarbayev. He was difficult to
approach, and never listened to more than 10% of the advice
Sarbayev gave him. Sarbayev said it was "impossible" to work
with him, and the pro-Moscow Jekshenkulov dismissed all
arguments made in support of maintaining balanced relations
with Europe and the U.S., or even with China (all of which
are Sarbayev,s portfolios). In contrast, Karabayev is a
breath of fresh air, and Sarbayev visibly relaxed when
describing the difference, as if a great load has been lifted
from him. Karabayev listens to his deputies, Sarbayev said;
he may not always agree, but he is taking in 90%, and
understands the strategic benefit to Kyrgyzstan of
maintaining better relations with the West. With this in
mind, Sarbayev said the Minister planned to offer a dinner in
coming days for senior U.S. Embassy staff and senior MFA
staff to encourage closer ties.

Kulov-Bakiyev: No Exit
--------------

8. (C) Sarbayev said he sees no resolution to the current
internal political impasse, and appealed for outside
mediation to bring the two sides together. The DCM responded
that the Kyrgyz need to resolve this themselves, but perhaps
the OSCE could play a helpful role. Sarbayev said the OSCE
should engage vigorously, implying the U.S. should help
ensure OSCE action. Sarbayev said Bakiyev had made an
incredibly brave gesture in nominating Atambayev as PM -- a
gesture he, Sarbayev, would never have had the guts to do in
Bakiyev,s place -- but in response, Kulov has done nothing

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to meet Bakiyev halfway. Sarbayev said Kulov, even after two
years as PM, doesn,t have the money to finance the
demonstrations for more than a few days, at the cost of 500
som per person per day. Sarbayev speculated that there must
be outside interventions and it appeared that Russia was
financing Kulov. He mentioned the recent press account of
Deputy Speaker Isabekov's claims that Russia has picked a
successor to Kulov, the son of a former Kyrgyz General
Aliyev. Sarbayev said the younger Aliyev has Russian
citizenship and lives there.


9. (C) Sarbayev also questioned Kulov,s reform credentials,
saying real reform requires younger leaders; Kulov is of an
older generation and just wants to bring Bakiyev down through
street protests. Sarbayev asked whether the U.S. could
encourage Edil Baisalov to work with Atambayev to join the
government; the DCM replied that although Baisalov is in the
U.S., we would have no contact with him until later in the
month, and we weren,t even sure he,d been in touch with
anyone here. Sarbayev claimed that Baisalov turned down
Atambayev,s offer for a cabinet position.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) Kyrgyz interlocutors from the Prime Minister on
down raise with us in every meeting their concern over a
possible U.S.-Iran confrontation. The issue colors Kyrgyz
perceptions of the Manas Air Base, which in their eyes could
make Kyrgyzstan a target of Iranian retribution. Sarbayev is
charged with coordinating the MFA's input into the SCO
summit, and will be a useful interlocutor as preparations for
the August event proceed. His warnings about Chinese and
Russian pressure on Kyrgyzstan over Manas Air Base warrant
attention, and the Kyrgyz initiative to put Afghanistan on
the agenda could be an intriguing effort to deflect Moscow
and Beijing. Sarbayev clearly believes he has more influence
with, and more respect for, Karabayev than was the case with
Jekshenkulov.

Action Request
--------------

11. (C) We are not sure it will be possible to keep Manas
Air Base off the SCO agenda, and thus we believe it would be
useful to have Afghan President Karzai, who attended the
Shanghai SCO summit, inside the tent carrying the water. We
recommend the Department consider encouraging Karzai to
attend the August Bishkek SCO summit. The Department may
also wish to consider tailored demarches in SCO capitals
outlining our redlines as the agenda is being developed.
Finally, the Ambassador is meeting tomorrow with the resident
Afghan Ambassador and will ask if in fact they are closing
their mission in Bishkek. If that is the case, post may
request Department's assistance to persuade Kabul to at least
keep the mission open through the SCO summit.



YOVANOVITCH