Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BISHKEK389
2007-04-10 12:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bishkek
Cable title:  

KYRGYZSTAN ON THE EVE OF DEMONSTRATIONS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000389 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN ON THE EVE OF DEMONSTRATIONS

REF: A. BISHKEK 386

B. BISHKEK 384

BISHKEK 00000389 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000389

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN ON THE EVE OF DEMONSTRATIONS

REF: A. BISHKEK 386

B. BISHKEK 384

BISHKEK 00000389 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: For the fourth time in a year, Bishkek is
bracing for a mass opposition rally on the central Ala-Too
Square. Felix Kulov's United Front, with the support of the
For Reforms movement, plans to begin the demonstration on the
afternoon of April 11 and continue until President Bakiyev
resigns and calls new presidential elections. President
Bakiyev addressed the nation April 10, defending the
government's record and offering dialogue with the
opposition. Bakiyev said that the law allowed for
demonstrations, but tough measures would be taken against any
law breakers. There were reports that additional law
enforcement and special forces personnel were being brought
up to Bishkek from the south, under the personal direction of
the president's brother, Janesh Bakiyev. Interior Minister
Nogoibayev told the Ambassador that the security situation
was under control, and that he had prohibited the police from
carrying weapons during the rally.


2. (SBU) Any movement toward a compromise appeared to hinge
on a new constitution. Prime Minister Atambayev's
constitutional working group continued work on a draft
constitution, and the United Front and For Reforms movements
prepared a draft constitutional law nullifying the December
constitution and calling for early presidential elections.
State Secretary Madumarov said that the parliament could be
called into session to consider the working group's draft as
soon as April 11. Presidential Chief of Staff Abdyldayev
said he was trying to arrange a meeting between the president
and opposition leaders. While discussions between government
and opposition emissaries will continue into the night, at
this point there has been no breakthrough and it appears the
mass demonstration will go forward tomorrow. END SUMMARY.

DEMONSTRATORS SET
--------------


3. (SBU) Following sparsely attended anti-government
demonstrations in several (mostly northern) regions of
Kyrgyzstan April 9, Felix Kulov's United Front, with the

support of the opposition For Reforms movement, is moving
ahead with plans for a mass rally in Bishkek April 11. Kulov
has said that the rally will continue until President Bakiyev
resigns and calls new presidential elections. Flyers with
the United Front logo calling for citizens to join the rally
have been posted around Bishkek. On April 10, opposition
newspapers published a schedule for the demonstration,
including rally points around Bishkek from which protesters
will march to the central Ala-Too Square, and in the
afternoon, people began to set up yurts and tents on the
square. Also on April 10, the United Front organized horse
games in a nearby village.

BAKIYEV OFFERS TALKS, BUT TALKS TOUGH
--------------


4. (SBU) President Bakiyev went on television April 10 to
defend his government's record and offer negotiations with
the opposition. He cited recent positive steps, such as the
law on public television and the establishment of a
constitutional working group, increases in pensions and
salaries, and said that the country was "on the right track."
Assessing the current situation, Bakiyev said that some
"unhappy politicians" were trying to grab power under the
cover of "reforms." Bakiyev acknowledged that the law

BISHKEK 00000389 002.2 OF 003


allowed for rallies and demonstrations, but cautioned that
the demonstrators had to obey the law, and not disrupt
business or interfere with people's daily activities. He
promised "strict measures" against any law violators, and he
warned rally organizers that they would be held responsible
for any disorder.

ANOTHER NEW CONSTITUTION?
--------------


5. (C) In November 2006, compromise on a new constitution
that reduced presidential powers ended a week-long opposition
demonstration. In December, the terms of the November
constitution were undone when the president pushed through a
constitutional law restoring many of his powers. Now, once
again, discussion of a compromise between the president and
the opposition appears to hinge on a new constitution. Prime
Minister Atambayev's constitutional working group, which
includes opposition members, continued work on a new draft
constitution. Working group member MP Iskhak Masaliyev said
there would be no "revolutionary changes" in the draft.
State Secretary Madumarov told the Ambassador that Speaker of
Parliament Sultanov was prepared to call parliament back into
session, possibly as soon as April 11, to consider the draft.



6. (SBU) In addition, the United Front has prepared a draft
constitutional law that would repeal the December version of
the constitution, restore the November constitution, and
establish a transitional coalition government that would
function until early presidential elections (see Ref A).

SECURITY FORCES READY?
--------------


7. (C) Ambassador met April 10 with Interior Minister
Bolotbek Nogoibayev to urge that the police act with
restraint, and that the actions taken by both sides be
non-violent, legal, and constitutional. Nogoibayev told the
Ambassador that the security situation was under control, and
that they would keep the situation quiet. He said that he
had "taken away" the firearms from the militia, and that the
militia would employ only "peaceful measures" for crowd
control. Nogoibayev dismissed rumors that the Interior
forces might defect to Kulov, estimating that 80% of the
militia were pro-government. Nogoibayev said that the horse
games organized near Bishkek by the United Front were a
provocation, as the Front planned to use the 200 horses for
intimidation purposes. (COMMENT: Horses are hugely
important in Kyrgyzstan as a symbol of the country's nomadic
past. END COMMENT.)


8. (C) Separately, there were reports that pro-Bakiyev
elements had brought in additional forces from the south as a
precaution in the event that police from the northern regions
defected to the opposition. Kulov claimed that the
government had been busing in pro-Bakiyev supporters for
several days and putting them up at private hotels and
hospitals. United Front's Omurbek Suvanaliyev told the local
UNHCR Rep that the president's brother, Janysh Bakiyev, was
setting up a "Praetorian Guard," bringing in several hundred
special forces from the south to protect the president.
(NOTE: There were similar reports during the November
demonstrations that Janysh was in charge of special security
details. Janysh served as the deputy chairman of the
National Security Service, and was dismissed in September
2006 following the "matryoshkagate" affair. END NOTE.) On
April 10, there was a noticeable increase in traffic police
out in Bishkek, stopping motorists and checking documents.

BISHKEK 00000389 003.2 OF 003



COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) From the president's perspective, Kulov and the United
Front are only interested in power, and "reform" is just a
cover. From the opposition's perspective, Bakiyev, if left
in power, will renege on any compromise once the pressure is
off, as he did in December. This is not a situation in which
finding a lasting compromise -- a lasting agreement -- will
be easy. Several on both sides have suggested that it might
take low-profile, outside mediation to overcome the lack of
trust. The OSCE head, Ambassador Mueller, has said that the
OSCE is willing to play a role, if asked. While discussions
between government and opposition emissaries will continue
into the night, at this point there has been no breakthrough,
and it appears the mass demonstration will go forward
tomorrow.
YOVANOVITCH