KYRGYZ PM ATAMBAYEV ON INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000384

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PM ATAMBAYEV ON INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISIS
AND MANAS AIR BASE

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY. On April 6, the Ambassador met with newly
appointed Prime Minister Almaz Atambayev, who said that the
opposition had boxed itself into a corner by demanding the
President's resignation, and it was difficult to see a
face-saving way forward. Atambayev sharply criticized both
former PM Kulov and President Bakiyev, both of whom, he
claimed, used their positions to steal from the country.
Atambayev chastised the Ambassador for allowing the issues
surrounding the Ivanov shooting incident at Manas Air Base to
continue for so long and urged to U.S. to settle the
outstanding base issues. END SUMMARY.

OPPOSITION HAS BOXED ITSELF IN
--------------


2. (C) On April 6, the Ambassador met one-on-one with Prime
Minister Almaz Atambayev, who was clearly feeling happy with
his appointment, although he laughed when the Ambassador
offered congratulations and suggested that sympathy was more
appropriate. Atambayev launched directly into his views of
the political crisis. He said that former Prime Minister and
United Front leader Feliks Kulov had boxed himself into a
corner. His demands were so extreme, i.e. demanding the
President's resignation, that there is no room for
compromise, according to Atambayev. Before, he said, the
opposition had called for "reform or resignation," now it was
"reforms without Bakiyev." He claimed that Kulov doesn't
know how to get out of this fix.

IMPORTANCE OF RESTRAINT
--------------


3. (C) Ambassador noted that the administration also had a
role to play in resolving the situation. Atambayev responded
that both he and the President had said they were ready for
discussions any time and in any format. The Ambassador
repeated the U.S. message that both sides need to show
restraint and solve the political issue legally,
constitutionally, and peacefully. She noted that the U.S.
was concerned about the pro-Bakiyev "women's battalions" that
Presidential Advisor Usen Sydykov was reputed to be
organizing in the South and by the recent release from jail
of shady coal dealer Nurlan Motuyev, who was almost certainly
tasked with organizing "anti-meetings" of pro-Bakiyev forces.
Nodding and looking grave, Atambayev said this was a problem
and he would talk to the President about this. He said that
he was also going to talk to Minister of Interior Nogibayev
about using rubber bullets.


4. (C) Atambayev said that he maintains contacts with the
opposition and many are still his friends. He was planning
on going to the square in the afternoon as his friend,
Parliamentarian Meles Eshimkanov, was one of the
hunger-strikers. He added that on April 11, when the
demonstrations in Bishkek start, he will also go to the
square to talk to the demonstrators. He said that he's been
warned against doing this by the opposition, but he wants to
talk to them and he also wants to ensure that there are no
other demonstrations going on that could lead to a conflict.

DEFENDING THE COUNTRY
--------------


5. (C) Atambayev said that he had accepted the PM position,
because if the President leaves office, the country would be
split. He was "defending the country." He said that despite

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the political crisis, work continues. That morning, he had
chaired a meeting of the newly-formed Constitutional Working
Group. Unanimously, the members had agreed to work on the
basis of the November 2006 constitution. He said that he had
reviewed the Baibolov-proposed constitution and dismissed it
out-of-hand as a constitution written as a vehicle for Kulov.
He said that the next step on creating a public television
station out of KTR rested with parliament, as it had
responsibility to name a fifteen person steering board.
Atambayev, said as a businessman, he understood economics and
had declared there would be no nationalization of the Kumtor
gold mine or any other privately-held company. It was
important to sort out the various mining claims, as well, he
said.

NOT QUITE A COALITION GOVERNMENT
--------------


6. (C) Atambayev admitted some disappointment in the new
Cabinet, although he said there were "better people" heading
the customs and tax agencies now. He said that for each post
the Prime Minister forwards several names to the President,
who made the final choice. One name he said he was not
pleased about was newly reappointed Minister of Justice Marat
Kaipov, who Atambayev said facilitates the stealing. Even
so, he said the Cabinet has been "educated" that they need to
work, and they need to stop stealing. He has told each
Cabinet member and the President himself that he will exclude
members from the government if they don't follow his
instructions. Atambayev said they must work for him,"not the
family," and he said they will listen to him, because, "they
know my character." On the other hand, Atambayev was pleased
with the membership of the Constitutional Working Group,
which he described as a commission made up of the opposition.

KULOV AND BAKIYEV: PARTNERS IN CRIME
--------------


7. (C) Turning to his nemesis, Atambayev said that Kulov is
incapable of running the country. He noted that while Kulov
said that he could not do anything as PM, in fact he had done
a lot: he had stolen for two years. Kulov's signature was
on many of the dodgy privatization papers and other
questionable actions that had taken place over the last two
years, Atambayev claimed. He said he does not respect Kulov,
who used his tenure as PM "to steal with Bakiyev."
Ambassador asked what the PM's relationship was like with
Bakiyev? How could the two work together, given Atambayev's
statements, and would the President change his ways?
Atambayev said his relationship with the President was
"difficult." The President was used to Kulov agreeing with
him on everything - and aiding and abetting theft. He mused
that the President could fire him, if the relationship
becomes too uncomfortable.

URGES PROMPT RESOLUTION TO MANAS AIR BASE ISSUES
-------------- ---


8. (C) Atambayev then turned to a number of issues related
to Manas Coalition Air Base. He chastised the Ambassador for
allowing the issues surrounding the December 6 Ivanov
incident to continue for so long; he was "ashamed," of the
U.S. for the manner in which it was handling the matter.
Noting the "big mistake" of providing the $1000 interim
payment to Ivanov's widow, as well as the December
Parliamentary resolution, he urged Ambassador to make a
generous, final payment. He also urged the U.S. to conclude
the matter of the September collision of a U.S. refueling
tanker with the "President's plane," and noted that these

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incidents raise anti-Base, anti-American sentiment among the
Kyrgyz people.


9. (C) He also asked why the U.S. had recently issued a
diplomatic note requesting overflight clearance for various
plane types including bombers and fighters. Was this in
preparation for a possible war in Iran, he asked. Ambassador
provided background on the issues and assured Atambayev that
Iran was being handled diplomatically and that the 2001
exchange of diplomatic notes spells out that the only purpose
for the base is for support of the fight in Afghanistan. She
added that she thought the diplomatic note was a routine
request, but would follow up. (NOTE: The diplomatic note in
question was the most recent of our quarterly requests for
routine blanket flight clearances for the base. END NOTE.)
Atambayev mused to the Ambassador that he believed the
Parliament would be more supportive of the President - and by
extension also of the Base - in the Fall, clearly implying
that there might be early parliamentary elections after the
summer.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) Atambayev was clearly in his element as prime
minister and can't quite believe he's in that exalted
position. He is interested in working with the U.S., and
while he is not completely pro-American, of the last three
prime ministers, he is the most progressive and the most
pro-reform. He is impulsive and emotional, but we believe
that we will be able to deal with him in a way that wasn't
possible with his predecessors. That said, given the
self-described "difficult" relationship with Bakiyev, it is
not clear how much running room Atambayev will have or how
long he will last as prime minister. Bakiyev needs him now,
but will he ditch an inconvenient PM when he is feeling
stronger, much as he did with Kulov in December?
YOVANOVITCH