KYRGYZSTAN PREPARING FOR SCO SUMMIT IN AUGUST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000377

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN PREPARING FOR SCO SUMMIT IN AUGUST

REF: A. BISHKEK 228

B. BEIJING 1895

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 12,
below.


2. (C) Summary. Kyrgyzstan is preparing to host the annual
summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in
Bishkek in August. President Bakiyev has said that the
summit is Kyrgyzstan's top foreign policy priority, and has
pledged that Bishkek will be ready on time. The Kyrgyz
government has pitched the summit domestically as a money
maker, and is looking for "economic outcomes." Little work
has been done on the substance of the summit, and the agenda
will be worked out at a July meeting of SCO country foreign
ministers, also in Bishkek. Slow initial progress on
infrastructure and funding shortages pushed back the date for
the summit from June to August and fueled rumors that the
summit could be shifted to another country, but Bakiyev has
beefed-up the budget for the event, and the Chinese have
reportedly offered financial assistance. The Kyrgyz
government has warned the domestic political opposition
against any actions that could disrupt the summit, and some
in the opposition have expressed concern that the government
may use the summit as an excuse to crack down on political
dissent. Bakiyev wants to use a successful summit to show he
belongs on the same stage as the other leaders and to score
points in the unsettled domestic political environment. End
Summary.

NO AGENDA YET
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3. (C) While the Kyrgyz government has focused so far on
administrative and infrastructure preparations, little work
has been done on the substance of this summer's SCO summit.
There have been some preliminary discussions on possible
transport and energy agreements, but the summit's agenda will
be developed following a June meeting in Bishkek of SCO
country defense ministers, and it will be finalized at a July
foreign ministers' meeting, also in Bishkek.

INFRASTRUCTURE PREPARATIONS FINALLY UNDERWAY
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4. (C) By all accounts, Kyrgyzstan was slow to begin
preparations for this summer's SCO summit in Bishkek. Early
preparations were plagued by a lack of planning and funding,
and infrastructure improvements needed to host the guests
fell behind schedule. The delays pushed back the summit date
from June to August and fueled rumors that the venue might
shift to another country. At a February lunch of OSCE
ambassadors, however, the Russian and other SCO country
ambassadors discounted the possibility of shifting the summit
to another country. They were adamant that the summit had to
be held here in order to show that Kyrgyzstan was a "stable
country." (NOTE: Other ambassadors present remarked that
this was the first "active participation" by SCO country
ambassadors at an OSCE event here. END NOTE.) In mid-March,
Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev maintained to the press that
the delay was due to the schedules of the SCO country
leaders, not to organizational problems.


5. (C) Presidential chief of staff Myktybek Abdyldayev, who
heads the summit's organizational committee, said that the

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preparatory work would include revamping the terminal at
Manas international airport, overhauling the road connecting
Manas airport to the city, preparing cultural programs, and
building a hall for the summit plus three guest houses. In
Bishkek, there have been a few visible signs of preparations:
some curb-side kiosks have been removed from major streets,
new trees have been planted along the airport road, and
builders are working around the clock to finish the guest
houses. Former SCO Deputy Executive Secretary Jeenbek
Kulubayev (now at the MFA) told emboff that alternate venues,
such as the Hyatt hotel, would be used if construction was
not complete by the start of the summit.

BAKIYEV: A TOP PRIORITY
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6. (C) President Bakiyev has repeated on several occasions
that hosting the summit was a top foreign policy priority for
the country. He has urged residents of Bishkek to clean up
the city for the visiting dignitaries, and he reportedly
beefed-up the budget to 350 million som (approximately USD 9
million) for the organizing committee. The Chinese have also
reportedly provided the Kyrgyz with money (approx. USD 6
million) for the summit budget. Bakiyev has stressed that
international exposure for Kyrgyzstan from a successful
summit would lead to investment projects in the country.
Kulubayev also told us that the Kyrgyz side hoped for
"economic outcomes" from the summit, and he said that
expert-level discussions were underway for transport and
energy agreements.

POSSIBLE THREATS?
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7. (C) Bakiyev has warned the political opposition against
any actions that would disrupt the summit. He has emphasized
that there needs to be stability in the run up to the summit.
Speaking to the cabinet on March 28, Bakiyev again dismissed
the opposition's demand for early presidential elections,
saying he would consider holding a referendum on his
presidency -- but only after the SCO summit. Foreign
Minister Karabayev has said publicly that the summit would go
forward regardless of any opposition rallies or protests.


8. (SBU) Former Prime Minister Felix Kulov, leader of the
opposition United Front for a Decent Future for Kyrgyzstan,
has disavowed any intention of disrupting the SCO summit,
saying that the opposition's demands and the SCO summit were
separate issues (Ref A). Kulov has called for Bakiyev to
resign and hold early presidential elections, and the United
Front is moving ahead with plans for demonstrations, starting
April 9 in the regions and April 11 in Bishkek, and
continuing until this demand is met.


9. (C) The security services have raised the specter of
terrorist threats in connection with the summit. In
addition, Bishkek Mayor Nogoyev speculated that terrorists
might stage attacks against foreign delegations during the
summit. Opposition MP Temir Sariyev thought otherwise,
however, telling reporters that he believed the government
may attempt to inflate such threats to save face should
preparations for the event fail. Other opposition figures
have raised the concern that the government would use the
issue of threats as an excuse to crack down on political
dissent in the run up to the planned April demonstrations.

COMMENT

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10. (C) Bakiyev has staked a lot on hosting the summit in
Bishkek, and he wants to use a successful summit to show
himself a player on the international stage, as well as to
strengthen his hand domestically. Simply declaring the
summit a "top foreign policy priority" has not, however, made
the preparations go any more smoothly. The increased budget
and assistance from the Chinese should help move the
infrastructure projects forward. The domestic political
situation remains unsettled and potentially volatile, and the
government may use the need to ensure "stability" in the
run-up to the summit as a rationale for taking a hard line
with the opposition. With so much focus on the optics of the
event, and how it plays in the current domestic political
turmoil, the Kyrgyz appear to have paid little attention to
the substance of the summit, beyond the hope for "economic
outcomes." And if they are further along in their thinking,
they have not shared this with us.


11. (C) Other SCO members may be further along than the
Kyrgyz in identifying deliverables for the summit, but it
appears the agenda is still being shaped. From our
perspective, one major concern for the summit is heading off
efforts to pressure the Kyrgyz to close -- or set a timetable
for closing -- Manas Air Base. Kyrgyz Defense Minister
Isakov told the Ambassador April 4 that the Base was
frequently raised by his counterparts in SCO. He did not
expect the Base to be raised during the plenary session, but
he did anticipate it would be discussed on the margins of the
summit.


12. (C) Action request: We recommend the Department consider
reaching out to SCO members now, in order to influence the
agenda.
YOVANOVITCH