KYRGYZ PM ISABEKOV RESIGNS; ATAMBAYEV ASKED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000347

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ PM ISABEKOV RESIGNS; ATAMBAYEV ASKED TO
FORM NEW CABINET

REF: BISHKEK 343

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On March 28, President Bakiyev reversed
Prime Minister Isabekov's decision earlier that day to fire
five cabinet ministers. On March 29, Isabekov resigned, and
Bakiyev named opposition figure Almaz Atambayev as Acting
Prime Minister, with the instruction to form a "coalition
cabinet" that would bring some opposition leaders into the
current government. Parliament may vote on Atambayev's
nomination as early as March 30. Atambayev's appointment
follows a recent series of concessions Bakiyev has made to
the opposition in an apparent attempt to divide the
opposition and peel away support for former Prime Minister
Felix Kulov. Kulov's United Front has called for open-ended
street protests starting April 11 to demand early
presidential elections, and has termed Atambayev a "traitor."
For his part, Atambayev has positioned himself as a
moderator between the sides, calling for reform, but not for
Bakiyev to step down. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee
that he will be able to broker a compromise that averts the
demonstrations. As we've said many times before, the
political situation remains unpredictable and highly
volatile. END SUMMARY.

Bakiyev Reverses Isabekov
--------------


2. (C) Mid-day on March 28, Prime Minister Azim Isabekov
announced that he had dismissed five ministers and two agency
heads. Isabekov said that he had made the decision to
reshuffle the cabinet, and that he would welcome opposition
members in the government (reftel). At a late afternoon
cabinet meeting, however, President Bakiyev reversed the
decision, said no one would be fired, and asked the ministers
to keep working at their jobs. (COMMENT: Under the
constitution, the prime minister can solicit the resignation
of a minister, but it is up to the president to accept the
resignation. We think it implausible that Isabekov would
have acted without Bakiyev's instruction. END COMMENT.)

Isabekov Resigns; Atambayev Appointed
--------------


3. (U) On March 29, Prime Minister Isabekov offered his
resignation, citing the need to keep stability. (Isabekov
later told the press that he had been put in a "silly
situation," and he would make a fuller statement in a few
days.) Bakiyev accepted the resignation and appointed former
Trade Minister and opposition leader Almaz Atambayev as
Acting Prime Minister. Bakiyev reportedly instructed
Atambayev to consult with various political parties and
movements and to propose a coalition government that would
presumably include other opposition figures.


4. (C) Atambayev, one of the organizers of the November 2006
street demonstrations, has positioned himself as a moderator
between Bakiyev and opposition factions, meeting several
times with Bakiyev over the past two weeks. He told the
Ambassador on March 26 that Bakiyev had offered him the PM
post, but that he would only accept on three conditions:
Bakiyev must agree to constitutional reform, he must allow
the state-run TV to be "public," and he must allow Atambayev
to bring other opposition figures into the government. With
this latest step, Bakiyev has now satisfied all three of
these conditions. Until recently, Atambayev was the co-chair
of the opposition For Reforms movement. On March 28,

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Atambayev, along with MPs Beknazarov and Sadyrbayev, former
FM Roza Otunbayeva, and Edil Baisalov, split from For Reforms
to form "United Kyrgyzstan." They said their agenda was
constitutional reform, economic stability, and human rights,
working within the legal framework -- an apparent contrast to
Felix Kulov's United Front, which is demanding that Bakiyev
resign and hold early presidential elections.

Bakiyev Offers Referendum -- But After the SCO Summit
-------------- --------------


5. (U) In his remarks to the cabinet on March 28, Bakiyev
again rejected the United Front's demands for early
presidential elections, but he did say he would consider
holding a referendum on his presidency. Bakiyev said that he
would consider such a step only following the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization summit, currently planned for August
in Bishkek. He said that discussing such an action ahead of
an event of "historic significance" for Kyrgyzstan would be
irresponsible.

Inconsistency Seems the Norm
--------------


6. (C) Reversing course on the cabinet firings was not a
total surprise, as Bakiyev has previously changed positions
on a range of issues -- and no decision appears final. While
he initially supported Kyrgyzstan's entry into the Highly
Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) debt relief initiative, Bakiyev
distanced himself from it and let the cabinet kill it when
there was widespread public opposition. Recently, after
signing a law banning right-hand drive vehicles, Bakiyev
changed his mind days later following a "protest drive" by
owners of such vehicles. In November, Bakiyev reached a
compromise with the opposition on the terms of a new
constitution that strengthened the parliament and restricted
some presidential powers; in December, Bakiyev pushed through
changes that restored those powers to him. (COMMENT: These
increasingly frequent flip-flops and the recent concessions
to the opposition reveal a president unsure of himself, and a
government incapable of acting decisively. END COMMENT.)

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Isabekov was a long-time crony of Bakiyev, and it is
difficult to imagine that he would have initiated the cabinet
firings absent Bakiyev's instruction. The way this was
handled made Bakiyev and the entire government look
ridiculous. Bringing Atambayev into government may be the
first step in forming a coalition, and it may bring some of
the more moderate elements of the opposition into the
cabinet, but there is no guarantee that parliament will
approve Atambayev's nomination. The real question remains
how Kulov will react, and to what extent Atambayev's
appointment will deflate support for the United Front's
demand for new presidential elections. Despite overtures
from the government (State Secretary Madumarov visited United
Front headquarters today),Kulov has said that the United
Front will go ahead with the April demonstrations. At this
point, as we've said many times before, the political
situation remains unsettled.
YOVANOVITCH