GKNB CHAIRMAN SUTALINOV CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000332

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR MARR KG
SUBJECT: GKNB CHAIRMAN SUTALINOV CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE
VIOLENCE DURING APRIL DEMONSTRATIONS

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) At the March 21 Novrooz celebration, GKNB Chairman
Sutalinov approached Ambassador to register his concerns that
the April demonstrations could turn violent and to enlist
Ambassador's support to moderate the actions of the
opposition. He also expressed hope that the U.S.-Kyrgyz
bilateral relationship would improve. He said the Russians
were not playing a constructive role in Kyrgyzstan, and have
as a goal the closure of Manas Air Base. Sutalinov seemed to
be trying to accomplish a number of mutually-contradictory
goals simultaneously: ingratiate himself with Ambassador with
his "democratic" credentials, so that he has a better idea of
what the U.S. is up to here, but also to make a friend in
case things go wrong in April and he needs a bolthole;
establish himself as a Bakiyev insider and conduit for U.S.
messages, but also distance himself from Bakiyev in case
things go wrong; enlist Ambassador's assistance in
influencing the opposition and civil society; and finally,
heap dirt on the opposition, especially Suvanaliyev.
Ambassador was somewhat taken aback by Sutalinov's approach;
however, we have as many reasons to cultivate this
relationship as Sutalinov does. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.


CELEBRATING SPRING WITH THE GKNB
--------------


2. (C) On March 21, the Bishkek City Government hosted a
first-ever official Novrooz celebration to mark the
Zoroastrian New Year and celebrate spring. Held in Ala-Too
Square, the guest list was headed up by President Bakiyev and
included a cultural program and a speech by the President.
The crowd was small, however, and GKNB Chairman Murat
Sutalinov told Ambassador that he had kept it small for
security reasons.


3. (C) Ambassador was seated in the government section and
was immediately joined by Sutalinov, who said he had been
looking for her. Noting that he was glad that they were not
sitting in the diplomatic section where the Russian
Ambassador could observe them, Sutalinov proceeded to chat
with Ambassador for the next hour and a half. Others,
however, clearly took note, and this did not seem to bother a
very self-confident Sutalinov in the least.

CONCERNS APRIL DEMONSTRATIONS COULD TURN VIOLENT
-------------- ---


4. (C) Sutalinov raised concerns that the upcoming
demonstrations in April could easily turn violent. Sutalinov
told Ambassador that he is trying to convince President
Bakiyev that immediate (unspecified) reforms are essential to
avert the threat of violence. He said Bakiyev needs to deal
with the opposition correctly, but also said that every time
Bakiyev and Kulov get together, Kulov outsmarts the
President.


5. (C) He noted former Prime Minister Kulov was being led
to confrontation by those around him, especially Sutalinov's
former deputy at the MVD, Omurbek Suvanaliyev. He
characterized Suvanaliev as one of the three main
"thiefs-in-law" in Kyrgyzstan, who had inherited the mantle
from disgraced former parliamentarian Muratbek Malabayev,
known as "the wallet." Suvanaliev's money from casinos and

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other ill-gotten gains was what was financing the United
Front. (NOTE: This is the first time we have heard this.
Suvanaliyev has a reputation for aggressively going after
crime and organized crime. END NOTE.)

ROLE FOR USG
--------------


6. (C) Gesturing to President Bakiyev, a few feet away,
Sutalinov said "these people" are not going to give up
without a fight; if there is violence, Bakiyev won't run like
Akayev and the fighting will take place in Bishkek, not in
the south -- implying that the homebase of the opposition
would suffer the most. Sutalinov said that he had warned
unnamed opposition members about this, but he was afraid they
would nevertheless try to take power with violence. He
suggested Ambassador reach out to the opposition and urge
restraint. He also said that if Ambassador had messages for
the Kyrgyz leadership, he could pass them on. Ambassador
replied that the message is the same for both sides: all
actions should be legal, constitutional, and peaceful -- and
the rules of the game should not be changed at whim to suit
the interests of one of the parties.

IMPROVING BILATERAL RELATIONS
--------------


7. (C) Sutalinov remarked that he hoped the Ambassador had
noticed that the GKNB's relationship with the CIA had
improved and that he was hoping for even greater cooperation
in the future and was looking forward to going to the U.S. in
the fall. Sutalinov said he wants to reform the GKNB and is
working with the French and the Germans in this regard; he is
also trying to interest the OSCE in funding a program for the
GKNB. (COMMENT: He did not mention any intelligence
relationship with the Russians. END COMMENT.)


8. (S) Sutalinov said he thought the overall bilateral
relationship would also improve and he was ready to help.
Ambassador noted the events of the past summer (i.e.,
declaring two American diplomats personae non grata and
rolling up the Surveillance Detection Team),had created
difficulties, and it was important that these sorts of things
not be repeated. Sutalinov said that he understood that the
Ambassador was speaking as a diplomat, but intelligence
officers understood that other countries are operationally
active and act according to certain rules. Ambassador
responded that the Kyrgyz clearly overstepped the rules last
summer; Sutalinov ruefully agreed. He again offered to help
and said he would welcome information on the assistance
programs the USG is implementing in Kyrgyzstan.


9. (C) Several times, Sutalinov said the Ambassador needed
to call him, so they could talk further, and that in the
future, he wanted to meet with her on "neutral territory."
Ambassador proposed a cafe or the Residence, to which
Sutalinov said he preferred the Residence, as it was unlikely
there were listening devices. Ambassador responded that
Sutalinov was in a better position to know. Sutalinov
requested that the Ambassador call him directly, pulled out
two cell phones, and gave her the number to the phone "the
FSB does not listen to."

RUSSIA: PLAYING WITH THE KYRGYZ
--------------


10. (C) When Ambassador asked whether the Russians could be
helpful, as they clearly had played a stabilizing role in
November, Sutalinov responded that Russia is "playing" with

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Kyrgyzstan. Nodding again to President Bakiyev, he said
there was "trouble" when Kulov met with Russian Deputy Prime
Minister Ivanov, and Sutalinov denied that Bakiyev had
initiated the meeting. (NOTE: Both former FM Imanaliyev and
United Front leader Suvanaliev have told Ambassador that
Bakiyev arranged the meeting. END NOTE.) Sutalinov claimed
that if the Russians wanted to be helpful, they would have
returned former President Akayev, as well as the billion
dollars he stole. Instead, the Russians play both sides and
destabilize the situation. While there are some business
interests here, Sutalinov maintained that Russia's interests
are mainly political. He noted that one of Russia's biggest
goals is to reduce American influence, and in particular,
ensure that the Manas Air Force Base is closed down as soon
as possible. He said that U.S. should be more active on the
energy side and welcomed details on the USAID REMAP program.

BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES
--------------


11. (C) Sutalinov repeated to the Ambassador that he had
changed in 1996 when he had traveled to Germany. His later
trip to the States had confirmed his inner transformation and
made him realize that Kyrgyzstan had to move towards
democracy and a market economy. Sutalinov said that in
everything he does he tries to show people that there is a
different way to do things, that they can be independent. He
pointed to his tan trenchcoat as an example and to his
haircut, which only he and FM Karabayev sport, as another.
Sutalinov said he wore a U.S. Air Force baseball cap during
the November demonstrations as a symbol of his independence.


12. (C) He watches cable tv, and loves American movies and
American actors. Sutalinov said he recently had been
watching the "Pirates of the Carribbean" movies as a way to
unwind. Sutalinov complained that all he does now is work:
he doesn't go to weddings, only funerals (NOTE: Funerals are
extremely important in Kyrgyz culture. END NOTE),and his
wife is not happy with his long work hours. Sutalinov said
that he hopes that by the fall Kyrgyzstan will be
sufficiently stable and he can move on. He said that he
wants to retire from government service and work with former
FM Marat Imanaliyev at the Institute of Public Policy think
tank.
YOVANOVITCH