EMPOWERED KYRGYZ PRESIDENT NOMINATES KULOV AS PM;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000030

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KG
SUBJECT: EMPOWERED KYRGYZ PRESIDENT NOMINATES KULOV AS PM;
PARLIAMENT VOTES HIM DOWN

REF: A. BISHKEK 002

B. 06 BISHKEK 1587

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Kyrgyz President Bakiyev signed into law
constitutional changes January 15 which restore many powers
stripped from him in the November 9 Constitution.
Specifically, the revised constitution restores presidential
authority over judges and provincial governors. Opposition
to the changes remains subdued. Based on transitional
provisions contained in the new version of the Constitution
and a separate law passed by Parliament granting Bakiyev
authority to appoint a prime minister, Bakiyev announced
January 16 his selection of acting Prime Minister Feliks
Kulov for the post. However, Parliament voted down Kulov's
nomination on January 18, leaving open the question of
whether the President will nominate Kulov again or select
another candidate. End summary.

Power of the Pen
--------------


2. (SBU) On January 15, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev
signed amendments into law reinvesting in his office many
powers ceded to the Kyrgyz Parliament in the November 9
constitution. The amendments became effective on the date of
their publication, January 16. Parliamentary Speaker Marat
Sultanov reportedly explained that a "conciliatory committee"
had devised the constitutional changes, which were necessary
to eliminate "discrepancies and inaccuracies" in the November
9 document. Parliament passed the amendments on December 30,
in a session that violated several procedural norms.

More than Finessing the November Constitution
--------------


3. (SBU) The revisions correct many grammatical errors in
the hastily-crafted November 9 Constitution, but also
reallocate powers from the legislative to the executive
branch. The president has regained authority to appoint and
dismiss local judges and chiefs of local state
administrations (provincial governors). He also proposes
judges for the Constitutional and Supreme Courts for
parliamentary approval. The president selects his own
candidates for Cabinet positions overseeing defense and
security portfolios (i.e. the Minister of Defense and Head of
the National Security Service, the SNB Intelligence Service).


4. (SBU) The extent to which the new constitution gives
further powers to the President will depend on who is doing
the interpretation. For example, Article 63 concerning
Parliament's right to dissolve itself includes the
stand-alone sentence, "The President sets the date for early
elections of the deputies of the Parliament such that the
newly elected Parliament can hold its first session no later
than 60 days after early elections are called." While this
appears to refer solely to the case of self-dissolution of
the parliament, presidential backers could argue this
sentence permits the President to set early parliamentary
elections whenever he wants, giving him de facto authority to
dissolve parliament at will.

Muzzled Parliament?
--------------


5. (C) In a January 8 meeting with the Ambassador,
opposition For Reforms parliamentarian Muratbek Mukashev

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noted that "this is Bakiyev,s Parliament now" in his
explanation of why Parliament passed the constitutional
legislation. Speaking during a roundtable discussion January
12, parliamentarian Iskhak Masaliyev justified the "new
edition" of the November 9 Constitution, but conceded that
"this was all we could do under the current circumstances."
Privately, MPs reported that Bakiyev had threatened to
dissolve Parliament (thus stripping deputies of their
immunity) if they did not approve the changes to the
Constitution. Opposition MPs were also subject to increased
harassment by the authorities during November, following the
early November anti-Bakiyev street protests and the late
December vote on the new constitution.

Managing the Transition
--------------


6. (SBU) The lack of a political party system in Parliament,
as outlined in the November 9 Constitution precipitated the
government's December resignation. While the revised
Constitution retains the party system for the future, Bakiyev
has utilized legislation effective for the current
"transitional" period to announce his selection of acting
Prime Minister Feliks Kulov for the prime ministerial post
under a new government. Parliament voted Kulov down 39 to
23, surprising observers who considered Parliament cowed by
the President's alleged threats to dissolve Parliament if
Kulov was not approved. According to both Speaker Sultanov
and White House staffers, the President is prepared to
nominate Kulov three times and then dissolve Parliament, if
deputies refuse to approve Kulov. However, there is an
alternate interpretation of the Constitution that claims that
the President has three opportunities to nominate a prime
minister, but he can only nominate the same person once. As
a result, there are questions about who will be nominated
next.


7. (SBU) Once approved, the prime minister would then
nominate individuals for ministerial positions for Bakiyev's
approval without parliamentary input or approval. Once a new
parliament is elected under the terms of the new
constitution, the prime minister will be chosen from among
the parties with the most seats. The present parliament was
elected on individual mandates, and many MPs have no party
affiliation. (See reftel B discussion of the new
parliamentary party system for more details.)

Comment
--------------


8. (C) While some opposition members continue to protest the
recent turn of events, President Bakiyev is taking advantage
of the constitutional revisions to install a new government.
As the text of the new version of the Constitution has only
now appeared in local media, it will take some time to digest
the impact of the changes. In the ever-changing political
landscape of Kyrgyzstan, until this morning it seemed Bakiyev
had successfully outmaneuvered the opposition, and
consolidated his power. With the surprise vote on Kulov, it
appears that not all the deputies have been intimidated by
threats of parliamentary dissolution. Some analysts,
however, believe that Bakiyev,s nomination of Kulov was a
charade and that he will nominate another contender to be
prime minister. While it is always dangerous to predict,
we're putting our money on Kulov. From Bakiyev's point of
view, while the Bakiyev-Kulov tandem may be an uncomfortable
alliance, it is far preferable to estranging the only man who
has a shot at consolidating the opposition into an effective

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force.
YOVANOVITCH